traffic estimator says 1 click/day. I get 10 if I try

the best way to know sth without trying?

[idolw]

I am new to Adwords. Read one shall not trust the Traffic Estimator. Checked it myself and it simply lies everytime i ask it about some keywords.

I am looking for a good way of predicting the number of clicks more accurately.
What is your experience?
Is trying out the only way?

[deep_alley]

Well the traffic estimator numbers always seem off. But there are way too many factors involved. The CTRs they assume compared to the actual CTR you get, the number of competitors, your bid and therefore ad rank.
I don't know if there is any other way to figure out how many clicks you would get. You cant even assume historical data cause everything would vary depending on keywords, ads, bids etc.

[suzyvirtual]

there is really no way to know but to try. In fact, I have long had a sneaking suspicion that the tool only uses keywords that are already in the system with other advertisers using them. Sometimes, I'll put an ad up for "some brand new widget" and although the system predicts I get no clicks, I get a lot because I am the first/only advertsiwer on the keyword.
Just set your minimums to something you can actually afford and see what happens.

[jtara]

The keyword estimater only works with keywords that Google already has a "bin" for it that tracks statistics.

It would be impossible for them to track every possible keyword that might be created.

If some advertiser has used it, then there is a bin. If nobody has, there isn't. No bin, no stats.