How to get more accurate "Average Position" from traffic estimator

In traffic estimator keyword "blue widget" says position 1, shows at 10.

[sja65]

Using the traffic estimator, Google shows that my ad will display at average position 1.8 at .10, 1.6 for .15 and 1.0 for .25 (examples only) for the phrase "blue widgets" (without quotes).

When I let the ad run, my average position is somewhere between 7 and 10. I think it may have something to do with people bidding on the word "widgets" and those bids not being accounted for by the traffic estimator.

Does anyone have any tips for getting more accurate data from Google with regards to average position?

[SFReader]

The general consensus is that the traffic estimator is of little or no value. I haven't even looked at the traffic estimator's results in years.