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For certain keywords my ad position is estimated at 1-3, but when I do a search myself, it shows up on page 19 or 20. In fact, I can't get a single ad to show up on the first page, though the majority of my keywords are estimated to do so. I'm bidding $0.16 per keyword, and I'm using the recommended daily budget (which is $20).
Anyone know what might be the problem here? How unusual is it for Google's Traffic Estimator to be sooo far off? What should I do?
I've been running a new Adwords campaign for the last 36 hours.
I think that is your answer.
When you first put up a new campaign it will start showing on Google search right away however it has to go through a review before it shows on all the search partners.
From my experience this takes a little while.
Give it some more time.