There are a number of variables for the cost of a keyword like CTR, Max Bid and landing page quality. These are the known ones, there may be more.
You are just going to have to test it and then test it again and monitor your results.
I know what you mean, but those results are the same as the ones down the right hand side, just given more priority i suppose.
There are a few things that can help you get to the top positions. A good historical performance and good CTR do help, but this is not going to help you to estimate a price for getting into those positions.
As i said before you just need to test it and see how it goes for you. I imagine every keyword (or phrase) will have a slightly different criteria to get the top positions as well.
I don't know that for a fact, it is just something I have seen said elsewhere.
From what I have seen others say here, those above the fold blue links are manually approved and placed. In other words you won't just get them by bidding enough or getting the top spot, but you will actually have to be reviewed by Google before they place you there.
I don't know that for a fact, it is just something I have seen said elsewhere.
This is part-way correct, and part-way not. ;)
While it is true that ads must have been reviewed and approved in order to show in the top spots, it's not the case that they're manually placed there. Here's some info from the AdWords Help Center that will explain further:
How can I make my ads appear above the search results?
[adwords.google.com...]
Why doesn't my ad appear at the top of every search results page?
[adwords.google.com...]
AWA