Moral of the story: believe what you see. ;)
AG
They do this even on exact matching.
The most difficult thing about this is that I usually use hundreds of keywords is always checking these by hand one by one. And then constantly re-adjusting the bids which take a while to effect the position and re-checking hundreds or thousands of keywords by hand. So instead I only check the highest searched keywords. Most of my keywords don't get any impressions. But maybe it's not because they are not searched but because they are on page 100 even though it tells me they are position 9. Frustrating.
The traffic estimator is not reliable but in my experience the reported average is. You cannot judge the average position just by what you see.
In this thread I think we may be mixing up the two things - and it's important to know that they are in fact very different.
The Average Position shown in your account stats is a factual accounting of your average position, as it actually occured over the date range you are looking at, and in all countries in which your ad has appeared.
On the other hand, the Average Position estimates that are shown in the Traffic Estimator are simply that: they are estimates of position, meant to give you an idea of the current competitive landscape in a system in which things change rather rapidly.
So, you can rely on the Average Postion in your stats to be an accurate reporting of the average of all your actual positions, for all of your impressions, for the stated date range.
But think of the estimates of Average Position as a way to get a ball-park idea of what might occur when you set keywords running in your account with a particular Max CPC. Then monitor your actual stats to see what happens in the real world, and make adjustments as needed.
BTW, in my opinion your actual Average Position is not a reliable way to tell your actual position in a given moment, and in a particular country. Robsp brings this up in post #5, and is quite correct.)
As an example, I've looked at ads targeted globally, in which a given keyword in a given moment might show the ad as number one in Italy, and as number 14 in the US. It is simply a matter of how much competition the advertiser faces in each place.
Hope this make sense. ;)
AWA