When I put in a keyword in Google Adwords, say Widgets Green, it estimates say 10 000 daily clicks.
Does this mean that the link that appears on the top 3 of the SER is getting over 10 000 FREE referrals daily?
I'm not 100% sure I've understood your question, AffiliateDreamer. However, the AdWords Traffic Estimator is intended to give you Traffic Estimates for clicks on your AdWords ads (that you pay for), and is entirely unrelated to the free Search Results on the left of the page. So, no connection at all.
I agree that the number of clicks that the system estimates for you is not particularly accurate. The main reason for this is that the number of clicks that you actually get depends on factors that the Estimator simply cannot know:
* How well targeted are the keywords to your actual product or service?
* How well targeted are your keywords to the Ad that shows?
* How well written, and compelling, is your ad?
So your actual number of clicks will almost certainly vary - either up or down, depending on what you've created.
AWA
Does this mean that the top 3 links that show up in the search engine 'naturally' will or do recieve 1000 referrals on a daily basis?
(assume that the 1000 estimated clicks per day is for google only, with content sites option disabled).
As an example:
I have two pages which are number 1 and 2 for a two word phrase.
For the time period October 1, 2003 to December 31, 2003 those pages got about 337,500 visitors from that search term on Google.com via the natural listings.
In that same time period, an Adwords campaign running for those pages, right next to those Natural Results got only about 47,000 clicks for that term.
The Natural Results got clicked on about 7 times as often as the same pages in the Adwords results.
I appreciate the factors that can't be known, but to be fair if you look at Overture's estimates they base it on last month's search volume and then a figure of 5% which although wildy inaccurate in terms of what you actually get, it's consistent in determining words that may work for you.
By that I mean if they estimate 1000 clicks for one word and 500 for another, although what you really get in terms of clicks will depend on the factors you mentioned, broadly speaking the ratios would be the same.
The estimates get hard to correlate when you suggest a higher CPC for a campaign and it estimates that you will get less clicks with the same ads you always had. Then you decide to go back to have the ads exactly as you had them before, do another estimate and get different results predicted.
Bottom line for us is to not even bother looking at the estimates, you'll get what you get. If it's not enough pay more, get more keywords, increase your positioning, use exact/phrase match, negative keywords. Look at your real data, then decide what to do with the campaign.
Nobody said that optimising should be easy.
(Even though it's only Thursday, I'm compiling my usual 'Friday' report, summarizing advertiser feedback.)
Just as a reminder, I'll not be here for the next five days, and will return to posting on Wednesday 6/2.
AWA