Forum Moderators: martinibuster
for example
earning = CTR x .....
e.g.
1.00$ = 1,000 x 1% x 0.10$
:-)
Okay, I see, maybe that was not what you are looking for.
Let's say, the earnings indeed depend on Adviews, CTR and EPC. The difficult part in estimating the earnings is to get the assumptions right...
Adviews you might get from your logs, by multiplying pageviews x ads per page. This, however, is only valid for pages that actually contain AdSense code. Everybody agrees that for traffic the old saying "the more the merrier" is true.
CTR (Click-Through-Rate) is not as easy to estimate. Some pages have a CTR of 0% (nobody ever clicks on an ad) while others have 100% (everybody who sees the ad clicks on it). The truth is somewhere in between, mostly depending on site layout, ad targeting and attractiveness of your content. A general rule seems to be - the more attractive your content, the lower your CTR. It's easy to understand because people tend to stick with good sites. You may increase CTR by "blending" the ads with the content. I personally feel that this tricks people into clicking the ads (unintentionally), but the general opinion here varies.
EPC (Earning-per-Click) finally is where it gets really tricky. There seems to be an algo called 'smart pricing' that determines the value of each click to the advertiser. It's unknown how this exactly works, but people here see big variations on EPC, ranging from very few cents to $0.50 (on average, not single clicks).
Also, please consider other variables:
a) the exchange rate (if you are not in the US) as AdSense revenues are paid in USD. This also may affect your earnings calculation
b) your production cost, e.g. cost for authors, web space, production.
So, all-in-all, there is no 'easy' formula to estimate the (AdSense) revenue of a site in advance. Too many variables, too little knowledge about the algos.
Hope this helps,
-- Mark
