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2015 Prediction

     
5:52 pm on Dec 21, 2014 (gmt 0)

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I predict from a CPC/RPM standpoint, 2015 will be a strong year...perhaps the best in the last 3-5 years. I say this because I am predicting that Google will take away negative bid controls for mobile. As we all know, mobile search is triple digit growth year over year for essentially all publishers and searches on a whole. Google is not going to continue to grow revenue with the majority of advertisers opting out of mobile. All the major Adwords clients know how to did "out" of mobile and most do. The quality of advertisers you see on mobile is night and day compared to desktop/tablet. This is like years 3+ of Adwords losing on major growth revenue due to mobile. They will be aggressive to "force" advertisers into taking mobile traffic which in turn is also great for publishers.

That's my predicting. That said, Adsense revenue for non brick and mortar, or companies without a national brand, will probably be down as a result of less organic traffic.
7:12 pm on Dec 21, 2014 (gmt 0)

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I don't think so. That'd be a pretty drastic push on advertisers, and lots of them are absolutely not sold on mobile. They'll no doubt continue to push it, but I don't think they're ready to go there yet.
7:42 pm on Dec 21, 2014 (gmt 0)

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I predict Google will continue to push its own products and property's making it an even more difficult path to arrive on organic search results.

If a visitor manages to run the gauntlet of Adwords ads, Google widgets, Google Maps, Google anything else it can think of to draw traffic the visitor will end up at the "search results" in the middle or below the fold.

Finally the publishers get a chance to fight over the leftovers :)
10:55 pm on Dec 21, 2014 (gmt 0)

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As we all know, mobile search is triple digit growth year over year for essentially all publishers.

Not for me.


They will be aggressive to "force" advertisers into taking mobile traffic


Doubtful. I'm also an advertiser, and if that happened, I'd look elsewhere. That's the last thing Google wants.

Overall, I do think 2015 is going to be pretty good.
11:52 pm on Dec 21, 2014 (gmt 0)

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ember, what device do you do the majority of your searches on these days?

"Doubtful. I'm also an advertiser, and if that happened, I'd look elsewhere. That's the last thing Google wants."

Did you look elsewhere in Nov 2013 when Adwords took away the ability to bid separately by device type? It used to be you could run separate campaigns for desktop/laptop, separate campaign for tablet and separate campaign for mobile. Google took that away over a year ago. You are already forced to take mobile ads unless you know how to negative. And on most competitive keywords you cannot negative bid 100% so essentially Adwords is already "forcing" advertisers into taking mobile traffic. So my prediction is actually already a fact. What I am predicting is that Adwords will significantly make negative mobile bidding much harder to do. For example, if the current max you can negative bid now is say 90%, I am suggesting that that keyword might be 50% the max you can negative big by the end of 2015.

The fact that we as advertisers could choose to run only tablet campaigns 2 years ago if we wanted, but now we have to take all device type traffic is a sign of where things are headed.
1:30 pm on Dec 22, 2014 (gmt 0)

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All I see is my niche widget sector withdrawing from this type of advertising, the novelty has worn off, even Joe Public seems to have given up searching for my widgets.

This is a trend across my industry worldwide and it doesn't surprise me whatsoever, we're not dropshippers, the products are heavy and expensive.
7:09 pm on Dec 22, 2014 (gmt 0)

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Mobile Traffic? Here is what GA is reporting to me for the whole year of 2014 to date:

Desktop 83.58%
Mobile 11.51%
Tablet 4.91%

FWIW, YMMV, etc.
7:18 pm on Dec 22, 2014 (gmt 0)

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IanCP - Business to business site I am guessing? Possibly non U.S. too?
8:40 pm on Dec 22, 2014 (gmt 0)

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2014

Desktop 71.2%
Mobile 9.9%
Tablet 19.0%

Total 100.1%

Last 3 months

Desktop 64.1%
Mobile 14.7%
Tablet 21.1%

Total 99.9%

G's figures!

Non US, B2B however a lot of global Joe Public visitors researching.
7:51 pm on Dec 23, 2014 (gmt 0)

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Business to business site I am guessing? Possibly non U.S. too?

No. Technical educational sites.

Country

1. United States 29.74%
2. India 13.29%
3. United Kingdom 7.05%
4. Philippines 3.47%
5. Canada 3.28%
6. Australia 2.80%
7. Germany 2.39%
8. Brazil 1.57%
9. Italy 1.54%
10. Netherlands 1.52%
11. Rest of the planet 33.35%

[ADDED] Returning Visitors = 47.2%
8:10 pm on Dec 23, 2014 (gmt 0)

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Sounds like a lot of people who didn't graduate high school and can't afford smart phones
9:07 pm on Dec 23, 2014 (gmt 0)

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Well above average high school level physics and mathematics.

Over the years I've discerned many are college and university students.
9:24 pm on Dec 23, 2014 (gmt 0)

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Just - wow.
12:26 am on Dec 24, 2014 (gmt 0)

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Fact not fiction
6:36 am on Dec 25, 2014 (gmt 0)

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desktop (56.56%)
mobile (34.37%)
tablet (9.07%)

Mostly US traffic
8:26 pm on Dec 26, 2014 (gmt 0)

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I predict Google will continue to push its own products and property's making it an even more difficult path to arrive on organic search results.


Read on another site Google is getting into song lyrics now, with lyrics showing up also whenever someone does a song search. My site isn't strictly lyrics but it does feature a huge php lyrics database I had installed several years ago, and is heavily interlinked with other pages throughout my site.
3:12 am on Dec 27, 2014 (gmt 0)

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Great, because the second word in my title of my new site is 2015.

So I think it is going to be a good year. Also new MS bundle of trash product related. Yeah, I'm a wh___

Heck with mobile 5 cent clicks vs 25 cent clicks desktop.

Anybody knows my old stuff, just the new generation of visual 3D shlog.
6:23 am on Dec 27, 2014 (gmt 0)

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Having access to both sides of the coin, I can confidently say that it will be slightly worse than 2014. The clients I manage running adwords see a constant increase in both click fraud (especially from china) and mobile content (which has a much lower conversion rate). In the mean time, the adsense sites I manage (including my own) see a much higher takeback rate and a much lower CPC. Also i see companies like media.net aggressively marketing their services to publishers. All in all i'm predicting another 15-25% drop in ad revenue. Refer to this post this time next year.
2:42 pm on Dec 27, 2014 (gmt 0)

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Sounds like a lot of people who didn't graduate high school and can't afford smart phones 


or, a lot of reseach done while at work. Or, when at home they use software not available for mobile so they are on pcs.

The people in my niche like to drive around and view the product from theirs cars. Mobile dominates.
3:28 pm on Dec 28, 2014 (gmt 0)

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My 2015 prediction: For publishers, AdSense will get worse, not better, and for three simple reasons:

(1) A continuing imbalance between supply and demand, driven by too much inventory on too many sites; and...

(2) Growth in mobile's audience share.

(3) Changes in how CPM display ads are bought (e.g., programmatic media buying, which has been a game-changer in the advertising industry).

FWIW, on our own information site, AdSense is barely worth the real estate that it takes up these days, but affiliate links are doing extremely well on sections of the site that attract and help people who are researching purchases.
6:22 pm on Dec 28, 2014 (gmt 0)

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Since it takes me about 2-3 years to grow a site into a real authority and moneymaker, I'm looking forward to some strong growth for the seeds I planted in 2012 and 2013, and some mild growth for the two I launched in 2014.
 

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