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Does Google Get Confused?

Why do revenues always seem to drop when sites are changed?

         

econman

9:23 pm on Dec 7, 2010 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Over the years, as we've made various changes to our sites, I think I've seen a pattern in which our Adsense revenues (and eCPM, and clicks and CTRs) noticeably (albeit not dramatically) drop shortly after we make any significant changes to the site.

Eventually, it seems like the revenue gets back up to the pre-change levels (or a bit higher if the change had a beneficial effect on visibility of the ads, or average time on site, etc.). But, before seeing the benefit of the change, or recovering from the adverse fallout from the change, there always seems to be a period when revenues dip.

Lately I've been wondering whether this pattern is real or imagined.

I'm curious -- have others observed this same pattern, or something similar?

If so, do you have any hunches or theories about what might explain the pattern?

My best guess/favorite theory (with a bit of anthropmorthizing) is that the changes we make to a site initially tend to confuse Google -- or at least make it question what it once thought it "knew" about the site and its content. So, Google goes back to square one and starts experimenting like crazy, trying to figure out which ads it should show in the various slots on each page. Eventually it figures out the page really hasn't changed very much, and the ads that used to be ideal are still ideal (or perhaps some tiny, subtle changes are merited due to some minor change in the content or layout of the page), but in the meantime there is this long, frustrating period in which it is bouncing around doing all sorts of experiments, each of which is suboptimal, and thus revenues and eCPMs tend to decline during this "confused" period.

I'm wondering if others have had similar experiences, how long the "confused" period seemed to last, and what might be causing it.

dibbern2

12:11 am on Dec 8, 2010 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



Not saying it isn't so, but I haven't seen such a trend in eight years. I HAVE seen the serps bounce a bit after changes, but that was always expected, and sometimes the reason behind changes.

I can only imagine what you suggest in the case where a topic or subject content changed significantly; blue widget sales to blue widget repairs, that kind of thing. But then, I'm sure you wouldn't be wondering if that was the case.

Its an interesting question.

One more thought: if G was truly confused, wouldn't the effect be random? Sometimes your earnings would decrease, but in other times, you'd see a temporary increase in eCPM, etc?. Just thinking...

econman

7:05 pm on Dec 8, 2010 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



The effect wouldn't be random; if we assume Google has fully optimized the mix and placement of ads prior to the site change, and the change causes it to start over, or at least begin a new, intensive round of testing, most of the tests will "fail" -- in the sense that some less-than-optimal ads will be shown during the testing, or ads will be displayed in less-than-optimal locations during the testing. Once the optimization has been disrupted, any testing that is done will tend to be sub-optimal, leading to fluctuations in revenues with most days having lower-than-normal revenue (until a new optimum is found, or the old optimum is regained).

eniac

8:49 pm on Dec 8, 2010 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



do you think how much time it is required to become normal from testing phase?

dibbern2

2:31 am on Dec 9, 2010 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



Okay, I'll give in on the point of randomness.

I looked back over about a year's records, and I see eCPM highs in a niche that I have been updating almost daily. So high, in fact, they exceeded my expectations.

But I can think of a whole bucket of factors that might contribute to this pattern. So many, that I believe it would be impossible to reach even a mildly accurate conclusion.

You would need a test. Something that you never touched but once, and then watched for what you claim. But that still would leave you with all the possible outside factors related to advertiser behavior, etc.

gmb21

3:32 am on Dec 9, 2010 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



I've seen lots of people report this drop after a major change. The general advice seems to be to make significant changes during your low season (if you have one).

hwarden

10:13 am on Dec 13, 2010 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



I have noticed the same happening to my sites. I have not found the definite answer to this yet but I have noticed big dips when ad positions are changed/added/reduced as I think Google also sells ads to adwords advertisers based on ad placements and I think it takes them a while to figure out what the new placements would earn or something. Its just my personal view :)