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Adsense 5 Years into the Future?

     
5:09 pm on Apr 29, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Thoughts about the Adsense program 5 years into the future?

I predict continued decrease in ecpm and it will eventually be another run of the mill ad network like Valueclick, burst, etc... Nothing more nothing less.

The program will have so many publishers that the few good paying contextual targeted ads will be insignificant and the bulk of your revenue will be from third party certified junk networks.
6:18 pm on Apr 29, 2010 (gmt 0)

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It isn't entirely true that CPM is falling for all publishers. Actually, it is rising for some and as the economy recovers, it is expected to go up.
8:41 pm on Apr 29, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Junk sites will get junk ads with junk EPC. Quality established sites will continue as before.

We've all been smart priced for a long time now so if our sites produce a ROI for advertisers then I fail to see why anything would decrease.

The only danger to AdSense is if advertisers discover a better advertising model.
9:55 pm on Apr 29, 2010 (gmt 0)

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It isn't entirely true that CPM is falling for all publishers. Actually, it is rising for some and as the economy recovers, it is expected to go up.


Just remember, today's AS publisher with rising CPM is tomorrow's AS publisher with falling CPM. Not all sites with AS issues are junk sites, and not all of them are run by people who don't know what they're doing.

Be glad your site is doing well, but accept the fact that it COULD change for no discernable reason whatsoever tomorrow. It wouldn't be the first time.

That's not to say there aren't issues with some of the sites involved, but it's not the case with all of them. Something else is happening.
10:17 pm on Apr 29, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Junk sites will get junk ads with junk EPC


Some junk sites have a good epc and some quality sites have a bad epc.

I just can see how this program can continue paying high epc with millions of publishers and growing daily. There will always be a few sites doing as well as most sites did in the past but generally I see ecpm steadily tanking across the board. More publishers, lower cpc rates, ad blindness, etc...
10:39 pm on Apr 29, 2010 (gmt 0)

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I just can see how this program can continue paying high epc with millions of publishers ...

As long as they're paying publishers and charging advertisers on a per click basis, what difference does the number of publishers, or impressions, make?

If they were to become ONLY, or even mostly a CPM network, it might be another story.

AdSense has changed so much since it began that I can't even begin to imagine what it might be like in 5 years.

(I think I'll start hoping someone comes along and pays me way too much for the site so I can spend my golden years and their money with great glee :)
.
10:47 pm on Apr 29, 2010 (gmt 0)

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As long as they're paying publishers and charging advertisers on a per click basis, what difference does the number of publishers, or impressions, make?


When the network is bursting at the seams with publishers eager to fill unsold inventory, it causes cpc rates to go down.
11:06 pm on Apr 29, 2010 (gmt 0)

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When the network is bursting at the seams with publishers...


Says who?
11:13 pm on Apr 29, 2010 (gmt 0)

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When the network is bursting at the seams with publishers eager to fill unsold inventory


Don't forget about the publishers who sign up thinking AS is going to make them a fortune, then drop it when they see it doesn't.

And consider the publishers who are now unhappy because click throughs have dropped, some are pulling AS completely or limiting impressions until the issue resolves itself. Both will impact Google's income as well, since fewer impressions = fewer clicks = less income.
11:24 pm on Apr 29, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Both will impact Google's income as well, since fewer impressions = fewer clicks = less income.


It is affecting their income. That's why they introduced the new certified junk ad networks to try and fill some inventory. That's why they're introducing their own smart phone and other products. If they were to rely soley on internet ad revenue their stock would tumble.
2:37 pm on Apr 30, 2010 (gmt 0)

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AdSense is just one of my income streams right now. I suspect in 2015, if I'm still around, and if AdSense is still around, it will be just one of my income streams then too.

kaz

2:18 pm on May 1, 2010 (gmt 0)

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I predict in 5 years ...

1) There will be a larger audience viewing and clicking on adsense ads
2) There will be more advertisers advertising on adsense
3) There will be more publishers

I think a key factor is if the monetization of advertising will improve by both google and publishers increasing the effectiveness of the medium for advertisers
2:46 pm on May 1, 2010 (gmt 0)

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1) There will be a larger audience viewing and clicking on adsense ads
2) There will be more advertisers advertising on adsense
3) There will be more publishers


I believe all three things will happen. However I also believe that publishers in general will be earning less due to the fact that the number of advertisers can't keep up with the number of new publishers/impressions.
3:30 pm on May 1, 2010 (gmt 0)

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I feel that AdSense et al classified style of ads will still be the de facto standard however all of them will have to accept that niche publishers deserve greater respect, transparency and revenue than many are currently getting.

Their failure to understand and accept this could easily leave the market open to a new and more focussed advertising network. Realistically just how difficult would it be for an international trade widget organisation to set-up a similar scheme?

IMHO quite easy...the model has now been proven!
3:36 pm on May 1, 2010 (gmt 0)

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They done pretty well in their first 7 years. I expect improvements in the next 7 years!
3:49 pm on May 1, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Our cpm just keeps going up and I am thinking of hiring an employee now. Our sites are full of original, constantly-changing content and a highly targeted audience, so our clicks pay well. I hope it continues.
4:44 pm on May 1, 2010 (gmt 0)

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>>>Our cpm just keeps going up and I am thinking of hiring an employee now. Our sites are full of original, constantly-changing content and a highly targeted audience, so our clicks pay well. I hope it continues. <<<

^^same with me, tho i'm not yet ready to hire...maybe in a year i'll get an extra hand (and wave it at people, and say "look, i got three hands!")
5:21 pm on May 1, 2010 (gmt 0)

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It needs to be noted that the product that we are discussing is THE SOLE bread-earner for a company that now has over $200 billion in market capitalization..Adsense started as a simple contextual targeting network..today we have technology like smartpricing to keep advertisers and publishers content..and as we move ahead, there will be many more new intelligence built in to keep it as worthy as it is today..If it doesn't work, the big G shall fall..

Having said that, I don't think more advertisers jumping in is any harm..Google will figure that out. The higher risk is in viewers getting ad-blind much more than they are today..Google ads have been largely unchanged over the years, and in 5 years time, I see a lot of customizations being handed over to the publishers and that's a good thing..
6:24 pm on May 1, 2010 (gmt 0)

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I predict continued decrease in ecpm and it will eventually be another run of the mill ad network like Valueclick, burst, etc... Nothing more nothing less.


It would have been better to state why you feel this way. Our eCPM has continued to rise over the last two years and we're expecting a major boom as the economy recovers.

As other mention here, I think quality publishers will continue to attract quality ads.
8:41 pm on May 1, 2010 (gmt 0)

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I've personally reached a level of consistency in my earnings, but I don't necessarily have much motivation to try to grow the program. Increasingly, when I am wanting to improve revenue from ads, I have rolled out direct sales of ads.

I have a ballroom dance site that used to bring in over $1000 per month. It is a community with lots of traffic. It is much busier now that it was when it was making $1000/month from adsense. When the revenue got below $300 I started to think about how it wouldn't be long before I couldn't even pay for hosting costs and upgrades to the software with the adsense revenue. I have since added my own program and I'm back to $1000/month.

My feeling is that google should be a little more selective. I still see tons of "made for adsense" sites out there. If google is using Domain Age and Link Age in their search algorithm, shouldn't they also reward people who have been in the program longer and continued to produce?

kaz

8:42 pm on May 1, 2010 (gmt 0)

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However I also believe that publishers in general will be earning less due to the fact that the number of advertisers can't keep up with the number of new publishers/impressions


I disagree as I believe by nature there will always be more consumers than advertisers and more advertisers than publishers. For every one person who starts an adsense site, there are dozens who start other types of businesses. As soon as you start hearing of more people starting adsense sites versus all other types of businesses (who are advertisers) combined I think we all are in good shape.
2:38 pm on May 2, 2010 (gmt 0)

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When the network is bursting at the seams with publishers eager to fill unsold inventory, it causes cpc rates to go down.


There will be more impressions but that doesn't make the clicks worth less money. Also, this logic assumes that the number of pages surfed will remain constant. If there are more competing sites than before that doesn't mean my site is visited less often. This is not like a retail store where a person has to choose one or the other. On the internet, they can choose both.
12:25 am on May 3, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Don't worry about the millions of publishers. Worry about the increasing use of script blockers.

NoScript + RequestPolicy = no AdSense. (Until Google sues the developers for not including google domains in the default whitelist.)
1:38 am on May 3, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Worry about the increasing use of script blockers.

This was just discussed in another thread. It appears that the data does not indicate an uptake in the use of script blockers. "Joe Sixpack" doesn't seem to mind looking at ads much...

See Martinibuster's post #:4122505

[webmasterworld.com...]
3:31 am on May 3, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Whether links clicked from Facebook will generate any revenue. This is one of the reasons Rupert Murdoch is planning on blocking Google.
4:16 am on May 3, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Rupert Murdoch is a media oligarch and founder of news corp, not ruler of the internet. Newspaper sales are down, more sources are available and most of those are faster than newspapers, so of course he will strike out at who is perceived to be the best of the new technology giants. While Google runs at full steam it would be unwise to step in front of them and bank on winning, he knows that.

As for the topic, I see adsense continuing to be one of the best options available for contextual advertising. My eCpm is up so I know not everyone made less last month.
6:38 am on May 3, 2010 (gmt 0)

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'Charlie bit me - 15 years later' would be more interesting than this.
Things will change, as they should, when we look into the future. Adapt or die.
6:39 am on May 3, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Facebook/Google will no doubt have some of profit sharing agreement before long as it is a lot of sites seem to be going into partnership with Facebook as people do not want to log in more than once.
7:05 am on May 3, 2010 (gmt 0)

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"We normally overestimate the future for next 2 years and underestimate for next 10 years" - Bill gates

In IMHO its really difficult to predict how the things will turn up in next 5 years.
Also I was reading about iAds Platform from Apple recently.
It will be interesting to watch this mobile ad space as well.

Thanks
Rajiv
10:50 am on May 3, 2010 (gmt 0)

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@NetMeg "AdSense is just one of my income streams right now".
Thanks for your comment. But I tried with AS for the last 7 years and never made good money. Could you kinldy provide some real insights/tips what is best to do for success with AS as I had tried with single or multiple sites. Ads appear but no income. regards,
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