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effective ctr

interpreting impressions

     
10:04 pm on Jan 22, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Is this correct?

If site visitors click to 100 pages, and there's 4 ads per page, is this 400 impressions?

10:50 pm on Jan 22, 2010 (gmt 0)

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No, that's only 100 page impressions.
11:02 pm on Jan 22, 2010 (gmt 0)

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So is it correct to say that 6 ads per page have no more value than 1 ad, assuming the ad targeting quality is equal? (And alot of other assumptions as well..but you have to start somewhere for a startup).

If not, then how are the number of ads to be considered in the startup revenue formula, or should I be considering this at all?

What's better?

12:02 am on Jan 23, 2010 (gmt 0)

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I guess I could cut to the chase...one has to translate visitors to sales. When there's no operating company how do you do that? I'll deal with the values, but I need a formula.
1:30 am on Jan 23, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Trying to figure out how much a hypothetical website might earn? It's impossible to calculate because there are too many large unknowns.

Try just using an assumption somewhere between $5.00 CPM for a pretty high-value website and sub-$1.00 CPM for a forum/community site or a picture gallery. Really a bigger factor in your earnings and a bigger unknown is the amount of traffic you can achieve.

1:52 am on Jan 23, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Well, if I say $400 /month earnings - that's hypothetical. Done.

I'm just trying to avoid the case where it might actually be $40/mo. The magnitude, not the detail is what I need to compute. If it matters.. the site has:

1) a comprehensive product library
2) blog
3) articles

income streams: a) database access subscription b) general site adverts c) online dealer ppc outbound links from the product database

2:01 am on Jan 23, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Regarding the $5.00 CPM... do you mean if I get 10,000 visitors and each one goes to avg 3 pages, that's 30,000 page views? So the income is 30 x $5 = $150?

If yes, assuming very targeted ads, is it also reasonable to use # of ads per page as a multiplier?

3:28 am on Jan 23, 2010 (gmt 0)

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If yes, assuming very targeted ads, is it also reasonable to use # of ads per page as a multiplier?

it would be reasonable. Unfortunately, it is not realistic.

- Too many ads, or a bad layout can make a site look spammy, leading to a higher bounce rate.

- More ads can lead to lower paying ads showing up. If a lower paying ad is more appealing to a visitor than a high paying ad that they otherwise would have clicked on, you make less money when they leave your site.

- A higher CTR leads to less pages per visit, because some people will be leaving your site before they otherwise would have.

- A certain percentage of surfers never click ads. A different group of surfers click ads all the time. A third group clicks ads when they find something interesting. You aren't causing these percentages to change by serving more ads.

You might get some minor benefit from more ads, but it is unlikely to be linear. Most people that I know that filled their pages with the maximum number off ad units had a drop in income.

3:53 am on Jan 23, 2010 (gmt 0)

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So what you're saying is you treat 1 page = 1 impression. Total month impressions = total page views?
9:53 am on Jan 23, 2010 (gmt 0)

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I'm just trying to avoid the case where it might actually be $40/mo.

Then you might want to avoid AdSense. Because it might be $40/month. As Jomaxx indicated, that depends on a lot of variables. There are no reliable predictive formulas, if that's what you're after.

----------------

This is a helpful group of people here, but so far you've written 6 of the 9 posts in this thread. Maybe you're not getting much help because others, like me, aren't sure what it is you're asking.

Could you state, maybe in one brief sentence, what it is you're trying to determine?

FarmBoy

5:14 pm on Jan 23, 2010 (gmt 0)

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You guys are great but I assumed adsense was like catalog marketing:
"response rate is proportional to number of offers made". Adsense ads are offers, just like products in an online store. I'd rather have 500 products in a store than 3. Unfortuneately there are a lot of quirks to advert programs. These programs need to evolve, rather than explode all at once - I think.

I'm trying to recruit founders - you might imagine they want to see the potential. What you're all saying is anything more detail than [visitors x ctr x cpc = income] is impossible. I'm not convinced. I deplore all of you to reflect as below, because some sales projection IS needed when you're developing an enterprise business (not that it's the next paypal - it ain't; but also much more than what CPA's call a family business).

You should be able to use "comparables". If a guy says his site will have a product library for 1 industry, you can make categorical statements about parts of the above formula vis a vis what similar websites have experienced. I'm talkin order of magnitude. If there's also a complimentary blog or articles database, that should tell you something more, and so on. We have many income streams to try. [Not the least of which will be non-search programs].

I think forums are great for very focused questions. Where people have very focused experience. But you can't have dialogs very easily about entire business plans. I guess it really depends on where on the compass you start the dialog. Maybe I should have started out with a broad description of my plans.

5:45 pm on Jan 23, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Sites CAN be compared to a certain degree, and I gave you a metric above that IMO is somewhat accurate and useful, based on feedback I've heard over the years.

But you can't effectively use a "formula" like [pageviews x ctr x cpc] when each of the three unknowns can easily vary by a factor of 10 or more. Do you really want to put into your business plan that your site will earn somewhere between $100 and $100,000 per year?

If your site's revenue model will be based on showing advertising, then try to stay focused on these items instead. These factors ARE important and will guide you towards a better and more prosperous website.

1. What the site will do functionally, how people will interact with it, what pressing need does it serve, how exactly people will discover it in the first place, etc.

2. Are your visitors goal-oriented, i.e. trying to learn or accomplish something, and ideally does that goal involve opening their wallets if necessary? If they're just socializing or looking at funny pictures or something, then they're unlikely to click ads, and when they do click ads they're unlikely to convert into customers for your advertisers. This is a recipe for failure, or at least not a great deal of success, with AdSense.

3. Are there advertisers presently whose ads may be of direct, immediate interest to your visitors? If not, and you're hoping to get "branding" style ads instead, then this is also a formula for very limited success.

6:55 pm on Jan 23, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Let me consult the chicken blood and goat entrails:

The internet spirits say that the following are the numbers that you can expect. They are guaranteed to be as good as any random information you get from strangers on the internet.

Your blog, if well written will get you an eCPM of $2.57, but no one will read it.

Most of your articles will get an eCPM of $0.85, though the worst will get $0.00 and your best paying articles will get $167.82.

The majority of your income will be from your lowest eCPM pages, because they will get the most traffic.

The spirits have spoken!

Now, who is going to clean up this mess!

7:03 pm on Jan 23, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Ok - very nice and incisive Q's. Here's specifics:

#2 Are your visitors goal-oriented?

YES, there's 2 areas: 1) static data in a focused product database more comprehensive and accessible than found elsewhere and 2) complimentary blogs and informational stuff - variable data. [the static data is the hook for which i'll be actively targeting people. the variable data keeps people coming back so we can build a customer base. the variable data is more like a school than a store, very generally speaking... but definitely not a place for socializing.

#3 Are there advertisers presently whose ads may be of direct, immediate interest to your visitors?

YES: if the database were about kitchen counter-tops, i'd be seeking advertisers selling counter-top appliances, under-counter lighting, cleaning supplies for stainless steel counters, etc. maybe interior decorators. as close to our database products offerings as possible.

#1.
A- What the site will do functionally,
unprecedented speed of access, accuracy, and comprehensiveness to the products buyers are searching for - instead of going to 30 other websites to learn (?) (more like hack) their way... the database is of best value to people very early in their search, obviously. but the variable areas will be of interest also - less critical of course.

B. how people will interact with it,
the database has a report generator, down-loadable / email-able reports to you / your spouse's pc, whatever mix of database information you want; the articles database will offer real help, overviews of the industry, insider views, etc.

C. what pressing need does it serve,
saves people weeks or months since we pick product industries which are poorly represented on the internet, and because the products are capital intensive - big decisions, multiple decision-makers

D. how exactly people will discover it in the first place, etc.
natural search and at partner sites who may offer our subscription (if there is one) to their customers; online product reviews, PR, twitter and anything else for free i can do with 25 hrs per week.

7:50 pm on Jan 23, 2010 (gmt 0)

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There won't be a mess. There's no expenses.
7:54 pm on Jan 23, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Going back to the original question

If site visitors click to 100 pages, and there's 4 ads per page, is this 400 impressions?

Adsense differentiates between PAGE impressions and INDIVIDUAL AD impressions.

If 100 pages: that means 100 page impressions, and 400 individual ad unit impressions

[google.com...]

You can set your reports to show impressions by page or by individual ad unit. But whatever type of impressions you show, it will be the same revenue for that day.

9:06 pm on Jan 23, 2010 (gmt 0)

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I'm trying to recruit founders - you might imagine they want to see the potential. What you're all saying is anything more detail than [visitors x ctr x cpc = income] is impossible. I'm not convinced. I deplore all of you to ...

You seem to be asking for some type of reliable predicter. Several people have pointed out it doesn't exist.

But you want someone to try real hard and tell you it does exist so you can use the information to raise money for your endeavor?

Do you really think this is a good way to do business?

FarmBoy

9:20 pm on Jan 23, 2010 (gmt 0)

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I am running several sites with Adsense. Even with the same topic (with slight focus, but not too wide as to vary the types of ads shown), same target audiences, same level of traffic, same quality and depth of content, the earnings are too wide between the two sites.

The two sites vary in design, though placement and number of ads on a page are almost identical. The pretty site gets significantly lower earnings than the site with the ugly design. My thinking then that the professional and beautifully designed site that's nice to look would get more earnings because the site looks clean and well designed. Boy, was I wrong

Moral of the story: it is HARD to predict how Adsense will perform on your site. And believe me, most of us here in the forum have been with Adsense since it started in 2003 -- and we still are as confused as ever about the factors that make it work

9:32 pm on Jan 23, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Well, I throw my hands up. I did gain some insight into a lot of things, however. Thanx.
10:10 pm on Jan 23, 2010 (gmt 0)

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So I'm convinced adsense is a little unpredictable. Is the moral of this story I'd have better luck soliciting direct advertisers? Or is that kind of program equally quirky?

What think? Do you folks do direct?

12:29 am on Jan 24, 2010 (gmt 0)

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I'm kind of confused as to the OP's question and the then subsequent responses. To me it all seems kind of pointless.

Then FB triggered my mind by saying:

You seem to be asking for some type of reliable predicter.

Has this after all, simply become another MFA topic?

To my mind, you put up a quality content site, observe all the common-sense white hat SEO techniques and you then "takes your chances".

Questioning layout, number of ads per page etc. fall within the legitimate "what works best for you" category.

The original question was asked and promptly answered correctly.

Then the OP has expanded upon this. Maybe I'm becoming too cynical.

1:45 am on Jan 24, 2010 (gmt 0)

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In another thread, the OP was asking about Google's % take of the amount an advertiser is charged per click. To me, this is the epitome of an irrelevant line of thinking. As you say, Ian, you put the site up and see what happens.

This is why most online startups begin putting content online almost immediately - so they can watch user behavior and get at least a preliminary answer to what CTR, CPC and overall user interest will be. That would be my advice -- start with a manageable niche or level of functionality before there's any need to bring outside investors in.

2:17 am on Jan 24, 2010 (gmt 0)

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That sounds nice jomaxx - and sort of is possible. But anything with a greater amount of value will take more to start. At US rates we have $25,000 of development by the other 2 founders... maybe reduce that to $20k in a limited form. Maybe. Luckily, very luckily, the worst scenarios for this business have an insurance plan. I can start other websites with different products, same format, in probably 3% the time of the first one. So cash flow is not hard to do if I have to make it happen. This is what will ultimately sell the the other founders - whom BTW I don't know! One's fictitious, the other I met at Panera last week. Nice guy. In fact, the insurance plan has only come to light as important, during these dialogs. If I had conviction about a backup plan earlier, I wouldn't have bothered you all. But see, there is value in these forums - 1 way or another - as circuitous as they may be.

You're right about investors. Especially now. They aren't satisfied with traffic. Those were the old days. They want a revenue model, that works, today.

5:57 am on Jan 24, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Well, best of luck with your endeavor. I firmly believe there are still scads of great ideas out there for online services that have yet to be fully exploited.
7:34 am on Jan 24, 2010 (gmt 0)

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You're right about investors. Especially now. They aren't satisfied with traffic. Those were the old days. They want a revenue model, that works, today.

Bingo!

From an old curmudgeon with a quality content site not seriously updated since 2000 and lucked out big time with AdSense.

7:36 am on Jan 24, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Never MFA
6:12 pm on Jan 25, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Can you put adsense ads in a database application? In order to figure this out you have to qualify if the database is a product for sale, or if it's just a database just containing information for sale.

Couldn't get this answer on Google's forum. Nor could I interpret this from Google's TOS.

6:14 pm on Jan 25, 2010 (gmt 0)

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Thanx, jomaxx.
6:57 pm on Jan 25, 2010 (gmt 0)

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put adsense ads in a database application

I'm getting a strong sense that you have never used AdSense and know very little about how it works.

You could probably enter the code into fields in your database but it would make more sense just to create an include for your template because it's just one snippet of code that is pasted onto as many pages as you need.

AdSense figures out for itself what ads to serve for a particular page, and tries to serve the most relevant ads it can from its existing ad inventory. The targeting isn't foolproof, but it's usually pretty good. The quality of your page layout and the clarity of your content will affect the relevance of the ads you get.

As others have said, there are so many variables it's impossible to predict what income you'd get from putting AdSense on a site. My best advice is to keep a light hand about it and resist the temptation to plaster ads in every available corner. It's unlikely that you'd get three times the income from posting three times the ads, for example. You have to test and find the balance point that is most productive for your own site.

7:04 pm on Jan 25, 2010 (gmt 0)

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i understand, finally, the balance point. It's the LEGALITY of placing ads in a database that concerns me. And Google didn't define what a "database" application is.

Also, if we have a fee, then those who don't pay it will be excluded from our database, hence limiting the ads they see. This is part of my planning I have to think about.

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