CTR Declining Since The Introduction Of Personalised Search

[HuskyPup]

I have gone through all my data for previous Decembers and although overall earnings were down as the month progressed, my CTRs and eCPMs stayed within their usual norm.

This morning I have been comparing the past few weeks metrics since yesterday, Thursday 17th December, heralded a new CTR low, therefore comparing recent metrics, and especially so since the introduction or personalised search, I have the following to report.

These figures are compared to 1st November 2009 to 4th December 2009

5th December to 14th December - Page Impressions normal average

CTR -12.3%
Clicks -22.8%

15th December to 17th December - Page Impressions normal average

CTR -22.6%
Clicks -35.2%

Obviously my eCPMs and earnings have reduced considerably, yesterday my eCPM was -24.5% but significantly earnings were -38% of 1/11 to 4/12 average.

How much of this is to do with personalised search as discussed in the search forum?

[webmasterworld.com...]

Personally it seems to be very coincidental how I have seen a gradual slide to this new low since 5th December and especially so when comparing AdSense metrics to previous Decembers.

Are personalised search results now serving non-relevant or garbage widget ads on my pages that I cannot see?

Has anyone else seen such a reduction in CTRs since 5th December?

I'll repeat, I did expect my earnings to go down in December however not the anhiallation of all metrics.

[ken_b]

I wonder if the drop in CTR might be more related to a wider roll out of interest based ads. If I recall right, ASA has said the IBA was being rolled out slowly, so maybe by now it's more common.

I don't know what the cause really is though, but wish I did. Unless Google speaks up, I guess all we can do is guess.

[Leosghost]

Are personalised search results now serving non-relevant or garbage widget ads on my pages that I cannot see?

probably

[albl]

HuskyPup - my observations of CTR and revenue declines are very similar to yours and your dates...

[levo]

I've disabled interest based ads two months ago, and my CTR still got dropped..

[HuskyPup]

a wider roll out of interest based ads

Plus the Opt-in Personalised Search results could mean my specialised construction products sites are now possibly displaying ads for books, travel, insurance, weight loss and a whole host of other stuff I cannot see since I am not using that user's computer etc?

Coincidental? My waters are telling me otherwise:-)

[incrediBILL]

@Huskpup - Personalized search has been around a long time. This update only forced personalized search on browsers not signed-in to their Google account.

Does anyone know the percentages of searchers not signed in?

Also don't forget they just introduced the Google "Caffeine" index update as well, plus it's the holiday season, and the sampling period is still to short to statistically attribute anything to specifically to personalized search or Caffeine as too many variables changed at the same time to determine which one is having the most impact.

[edited by: incrediBILL at 3:44 pm (utc) on Dec. 18, 2009]

[Lame_Wolf]

BTW, remember this update to personalized search only impacts browsers not signed-in to their Google account.

And then there are people like me, who uses firefox to view my adsense, but use IE for browsing.

So even though I am logged into my account with Google on one browser, It doesn't affect the other.

[Erku]

will this settle down?

We experience huge drop from google traffic as well

[signor_john]

My average CTR for December is about the same as for November, with a high yesterday (December 17). In general, CTR has been fairly steady over the last 12 months, and it's currently running well ahead of mid-December last year, which may reflect improvements in consumer confidence.

CTR is lower than it was a few years ago, but average EPC has climbed noticeably (perhaps due to Google's current definition of a "valid click," which is stricter than it used to be when a click was registered whenever a user clicked--by accident or otherwise--on the body of an ad).

[vordmeister]

My stats patterns forever match Huskys. The last month or so has been oddest I've ever seen from a Google point of view. Everything is all over the place.

Yesterdays stats for me were probably the lowest for a Thursday since I started. I expect a click dump.

Google just seem preoccupied at the moment. Like they are winding down for Christmas and just can't be bothered processing anything. It's being noticed in indexing too. Suspect it's more that than personalised search (which for Asdense has been around a while).

[Go60Guy]

I, too, had some concern about the personalized search modification. But, FWIW, comparing December, so far, with November, my CTR is up somewhat, and EPC is also running ahead. Nothing spectacular, but, nothing to complain about, either.

[Lame_Wolf]

My stats patterns forever match Huskys.

Mine used to, but for the last few months at least, when HP has a bad day, I am having a good one.

[vordmeister]

What's your secret Lame_Wolf? Have you changed anything? It's OK following HP when things are on the up, but if he's going to mess around with decreasing earnings I'd rather get behind someone else.

More seriously, I've noticed disaster earnings down to nothing threads when I've had a fantastic day. Those times the sufferers didn't get a click dump.

I'd worry more, but the last few months I've altered my revenue streams from the net to ones I am more able to control, and Adsense on a good day is under 50% earnings.

[Lame_Wolf]

What's your secret Lame_Wolf? Have you changed anything?

Nothing at all.

Although I had an increase in visitors, I only have adsense on about 20% or less on the site.

For whatever reason, I am receiving a higher CPC than before. I hope it stays that way.

[HuskyPup]

I obviously wrote the magical words on WebmasterWorld today since my CTR is the highest it's been for a couple of months!

I would like to add that even though my CTR has been in decline that my EPC has stayed relatively stable with today's EPC being well above average.

I expected this month to be a bit more turbulent than usual, it'll be interesting to see what happens from January onwards since I cannot believe just how many people have been lucky enough to finish work today and will not be returning until 4th Jan...jealous, you bet.

[incrediBILL]

my CTR is the highest it's been for a couple of months!

That usually happens right before the "You've been banned" letter arrives via email ;)

[farmboy]

when HP has a bad day, I am having a good one.

When you logged in to Adsense, you must have seen the same button I did. The one that reads, "Click here to have a portion of HP's earning credited to your account"

:)

-----------------------------------------

Anyway, is there an assumption here that AdSense has completely abandoned the concept of contextually based ads and is now ONLY serving ads based on "personalized search" or individual browsing habits, etc?

I saw that mentioned in another related thread and I certainly don't share that assumption.

FarmBoy

[maximillianos]

We've been noticing a slow decline in traffic over the last 2 weeks. Thought it was related to the holidays, but maybe it is the personalized search rollout?

Guess we will find out in January if it bounces back or not.

[menospath]

Does anyone know the percentages of searchers not signed in?

I've had the same question in mind, it will help if we could see that stats.
I don't know what type of statistics we should look for in order to know the percentages of signed in / out searchers / googlers.

by the way, my CTR has not been affected, but it got better:
November (first 15 days): 5.50% CTR
December (first 15 days): 7.00% CTR + (PPC improved)

I didn't make any changes to the site.

my view: it all dependence on the sector you are in.

[signor_john]

my CTR is the highest it's been for a couple of months!

That usually happens right before the "You've been banned" letter arrives via email ;)

LOL. Unfortunately (or perhaps fortunately), my CTR wasn't that high on December 17th. :-)

[HuskyPup]

That usually happens right before the "You've been banned" letter arrives via email ;)

Hehehe...not too bad a day in the end insofar as December is concerned however nowhere near the CTR of a few years ago:-(

I think that my sector of the www is officially closed now until January, I haven't see such low traffic levels, apart from December 25/26th, since this Saturday last year...at least that's consistency for you!

[purplecape]

Husky, the question I have is: given that CTR seems to have been declining overall for the past few years--from many comments here and your specific ones--is this "new" decline actually a significant additional drop or just a continuation of the long-term trend?

Have you, has anyone, graphed their CTR over the past few years to see?

[ken_b]

Have you, has anyone, graphed their CTR over the past few years to see?

Numbers like that might not mean much unless nothing has changed on a site/page over the years.

For instance, my CTR has taken a real dive this year, especially this fall. Looks really bad at first glance.

BUT.... I've added other ads to the site and when I figure in the CTR from those ads, things look pretty much stable.

[signor_john]

Have you, has anyone, graphed their CTR over the past few years to see?

Numbers like that might not mean much unless nothing has changed on a site/page over the years.

Also, we know (because Google has been quite open about it) that the definition of a "valid click" [adsense.blogspot.com] isn't what it was a few years ago, when an accidental click on the body of an ad would be counted as a paid click. Today, a user has to click on the ad title or URL to register a click that's charged to the advertiser. That's good for advertisers (who pay for fewer spurious clicks), and it's good over the long term for legitimate publishers (who benefit from having advertisers who are satisfied with their ROI), but it does mean that the network's average CTR is likely to be lower than it was before the change was made in 2007.

[IanCP]

Numbers like that might not mean much unless nothing has changed on a site/page over the years

Ken, as you and others know I've changed nothing on my pages/sites of significance since 2002 excepting dumping 728 X 90 in favour of the single rectangle.

I agree with SJ, much of the changes come down to the definition of a "valid click". If this means the advertiser continues to get "value for money" for his/her costs and retains long term confidence in the system then that's fine by me.

[purplecape]

Yes, we know about the change in definition of a valid click. We can mark that point on our graph, and we can take it into account when looking at the long-term trends, just as we can take into account major changes on our site.

It's interesting to read HP's speculation about the impact of personalized search, but it's impossible to gauge how real that is except in a long-term context, in my opinion...

(FWIW, the change in valid click definition did not have a noticeable impact on my long-term CTR trend. Make of that what you will.)

[HuskyPup]

is this "new" decline actually a significant additional drop or just a continuation of the long-term trend?

Until the introduction of personalised search my CTR decline had actually stopped and was rising slightly witnessed by my best month's earnings of 2009 in November.

I knew December would be a fickle month and being realistic I don't feel I'll be able to make any definite conclusions until the end of January when many of us will have seen much more "normal" figures. FWIW my actual traffic and earnings have halved in the past few days, my CTR has now stabilised and I really do not expect much now until the first week of January.

As a point of interest, and I know it's been discussed in-depth on the search forum, it seems a bit crazy to me that I have specialised widget sites and users visit them, I assume, to learn about those products and I do not think it's unreasonable of me to expect the ads being shown are about my widgets.

Does anyone know, or has seen, whether their widget site(s) are displaying off-topic personalised results?

[signor_john]

Does anyone know, or has seen, whether their widget site(s) are displaying off-topic personalised results?

My site isn't about widgets (it's more about whatsits), but I'd have to say that ad matching on my pages is at least as good now as it was a few years ago. And in some cases, it's clearly better. Maybe editorial diversity is a factor, and sites with many subtopics (within their overarching topics) aren't as likely to exhaust their allocations of ads for relevant keyphrases?

[HuskyPup]

From what I am seeing my ads are still spot on therefore I'll have to try someone else's machine that's full of garbage and see what ads appear on my sites...my daughters looking on ebay and fashion sites should prove to be a good test I would have thought?