Forum Moderators: martinibuster
Started today in the morning with this trend.
Can only I see this, or are there similar changes at other publishers.
I have no idea whether my assumption is correct, just one of those gut feelings!
CTR down ~~30%, EPC up ~~30%.
Interesting to see if this is a permanent change (=Google now removes invalid clicks direcly so that they are no longer visible in the stats, or something), or some sort of a experiment, or (yet another) mishap.
How can anyone speak of a "trend" when the day is less than eight hours old?
I agree. It's rare (I know, I know), but still, I agree. :-)
Given the huge fluctuations -even on a day-by-day base-, I'd start to speak of a "trend" if the change in the data set holds up for at least 30 days. And even then...
* html compressed delivery
* all buttons in one graphic
This speeds up page loading, but as a side effect,
it could be that the AdSense ads are relative to the content a little bit later.
How can anyone speak of a "trend" when the day is less than eight hours old?
So, if your income drops 99%, you usually wait like, what 28573279743587 years to make sure you get the stats right and correct and fine and counterbalanced and dandy and precise and historically accurate? ;-D
If my stats (after 8 hours) are completely different than ever before(!) during the previous (thousands++ of) adsense days (after 8 hours) I'm starting to explore what's happening, to react properly - preferably sooner than later. :-)
I just don't understand people who check their stats/code/server/email once per 2 months, and then cry about all their lost money because they were kicked out of adsense for failing to react to an offical email during the required two days or something.
Maybe "trend" is not the most precise word to use here, but it's clear enough that information flows from person to person, and that's precise enough for me (if a volcano erupts, would you stop to argue about the precise words, or would you run). IMO: Words like "glitch" have too much of a different meaning/tone to be used in this case anyways.
If you have enough traffic and if you know your hour-to-hour ECP variation you can easily spot new "trends".
We live in a speedy (global online) world, where the planet's most powerful bank/investor can go out of business in weeks, or in days (just what has recently happened). The days when people used ancient things like yearly quarters to form basis for calculations are at some level over.
All I know is: I have never ever seen these kinds of numbers at this time of the day in my stats during my years with Adsense. No chances in code/pages/etc. I rather be active and informed, than just passively wait for this millennium to pass by.
I made today some videos loading web sites with a cell phone.
At the line begin seconds after hiting return
website with new technolog, compressed delivery,
all buttons in one graphic
3 Content
5 First thumbnail pic in content
8 all 5 thumbnail pics content
18 navigation, Google searchbox
20 120x90 AdLink
21 300x250 Ad
22 336x280 Ad 200x90 AdLink
26 Logo starts
34 Buttons
56 Javascript creates additional navigation
67 Background visible
website with samt layout, but old technology
4 Content Bildrahmen
6 navigation
8 Google searchbox
11 First thumbnail pic in content
16 All thumbnail pics in content
23 120x90 AdLink
23 300x250 Ad
26 336x280 Ad 200x90 AdLink
40 javascript creates additional navigation
58 Logo
128 Background
I noticed, that the thumbnails in content started long before the AdSense ads started, so I just test a new sequence of the code.
Old code
content
AdSense 120x90
AdSense 300x250
AdSense 336x280
AdSense 200x90
navigation
New code
AdSense 120x90
AdSense 300x250
content
AdSense 336x280
AdSense 200x90
navigation
I hope this shows up the first 2 AdSense ads much faster.
Now after nearly the half day is over compared to last Monday at the same time
5% more impressions
20% less clicks
25% less revenues
So there are all reasons for PANIC!
BTW, cell phones are ideal to test the load speed of a web site, they show the whole process in absolut slow motion
No doubt will return to normal tomorrow
So, if your income drops 99%, you usually wait like, what 28573279743587 years to make sure you get the stats right and correct and fine and counterbalanced and dandy and precise and historically accurate? ;-D
You needn't wait 2857329743587 years, but you might save yourself some stress by not paying too much attention to your AdSense numbers before the end of the day. Reports sometimes lag, and "click dumps" aren't uncommon.
We live in a speedy (global online) world
Bah, we actually live in a ADD world. Anything really important for me with Adsense manifests itself over many weeks and I have to compare it to a good ole 3 months moving average. Then I can make some sense out of it. But the day to day action is just noise and unnecessary excitement, like rolling dices. Sometimes when I have a really bad day I may check the forum to see if anyone else is feeling the blow, but to call anything a "new trend" out of a few hours is premature.
And yes for the record, my 3 months average is stalling big time and today kinda sucks.
At the line begin seconds after hiting returnwebsite with new technolog, compressed delivery,
all buttons in one graphic3 Content
5 First thumbnail pic in content
8 all 5 thumbnail pics content
18 navigation, Google searchbox
20 120x90 AdLink
21 300x250 Ad
22 336x280 Ad 200x90 AdLink
26 Logo starts
34 Buttons
56 Javascript creates additional navigation
67 Background visible
I moved now 2 AdSense units before the content,
this changes the load time like this:
3 content and navigation text
8 120x90 AdLink Google searchbox
9 300x250 Ad
11 336x280 Ad 200x90 AdLink
13 First thumbnail pic in content
16 all 5 thumbnail pics content
25 Buttons
51 Javascript creates additional navigation
80 Background visible
So the changes shows at last in ultra slow motion loading with the cell phone a significant change when the ads are shown.
Now the nearly complete Monday stats: compared to monthly average of January
Domains not changed to new tech, html uncompressed, many small pics
7% more impressions
5% less CTR
4% less earnings
Domains changed to new tech, html gz compressed, one pic with all buttons and logos
20% more impressions
29% less CTR
25% less earnings
So my conclusion:
It was a very bad Monday, Mondays are usual well above monthly average.
But improving load speed of the content showed the ads later, decreasing CTR also.
I hope my solution for the situation, move 2 AdSense units in the code before the content, solves the disaster.
Domains not changed to new tech, html uncompressed, many small pics7% more impressions
5% less CTR
4% less earningsDomains changed to new tech, html gz compressed, one pic with all buttons and logos
20% more impressions
29% less CTR
25% less earnings
Changed Tuesday in the early morning all new tech domains to have 2 AdSense codes before the content.
Again compared to monthly average from January
Domains not changed to new tech, html uncompressed, many small pics
2% more impressions
7% less CTR
16% less earnings
Domains changed to new tech, html gz compressed, one pic with all buttons and logos
12% more impressions
20% less CTR
14% less earnings
Statistics based on about 10000 page impressions per group, so not enough to have security at such small differences.
Special problem, the "old tech group" is in an area not so much influenced by the economic crisis.
Perhaps the January recovery from December (but still year-over-year lower performance than the previous ones in terms of CTR and ECPM) was due to New Year's resolutions and activity. Traffic is higher than ever (by 20%), so people ARE browsing. But the downward trend continues since September with great alacrity.
(Aside: Perhaps the Obama honeymoon is over and people are scared that despite his rhetoric, which I do not question is backed by intelligence, he does not walk on water and cannot turn around the economy -- by his own more-and-more frequent admissions -- in the near term of even one year. Trillions are needed to be injected for infrastructure according to a long-term study by engineers who give the U.S. a solid "D," bad loan management without a sense that the banks have offered full disclosure, lack of confidence in the core of Capitalism itself where the corporations are allowed an exemption with Socialist protections when they fail, etc., and people may be realizing that the solution is over his head and those who advise him, and are "hunkering down" for a long, long recession/depression.)
Certainly no advertiser or webmaster/SEO person is exempt from the huge market forces at work here, and we may be feeling the weight in the coming months.
[edited by: koan at 10:05 am (utc) on Feb. 4, 2009]
Yesterday was the worst I've seen in years for eCPM, and I can't see any reason why.
It may be the economy and current psychology as the U.S. and the world bleeds jobs, but when such changes happen of a sudden, it makes one wonder if the underlying calculations are changing or the bids are going down in a very steep manner.
You can play with ad positioning -- and that is well and good and may lead to important discoveries and optimizations -- but for well-structured sites this should not be an issue leading to such large swings.
I think it is good to know that others with high-volume sites are experiencing similar trends -- not good for the owners, but good to know that you are not being singled out or that certain sectors are not being singled out.
Pretty awful, however, Feb. 4 is already a huge improvement, plus, since Feb. 2 was outstanding, this is probably the result of continuing realignment between advertisers, google, searchers. There are big changes going on everywhere. Meanwhile, I am taking an extended vacation, just doing a little work here and there, fixing broken things, not adding much, just watching and waiting until the snow clears and the economy completely crashes (probability over 50% now).
Pretty awful, however, Feb. 4 is already a huge improvement
Not at me, I would call it more a crash.
High traffic, but lower CTR.
The CTR of the sites changed to the new tech stabke, this time crashed the CTR of the unchanged sites.
The day has not ended jet, but it seems 10% below christmas 24th earnings.
My problem is I don't know if it is the economy in general, or something I have affected from my end. It seems to be too sudden to just be the economy.
