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Is the pendulum swinging back?

Is anyone else seeing a bump up?

     
3:13 pm on Nov 30, 2007 (gmt 0)

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The 28th and 29th gave me very nice increases in ecpm, 50% above my average for the month. Today is starting extremely well (over $10 ecpm). Most days I get great ecpm in the morning only to trail off over the day, but I never see it that high. Other stats are not remarkable, and it appears to be across most channels. Is it just me?
3:32 pm on Nov 30, 2007 (gmt 0)

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It's been "same old, same old" for me, with the usual daily swings. (Yesterday was the lowest-eCPM day of the month because of a lower-than-usual CTR, but EPC was noticeably higher than average, so go figure.)
3:40 pm on Nov 30, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Over the past couple of days, the Google Checkout image ads have caused my eCPM to soar.
4:06 pm on Nov 30, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Is it just me?

Possibly, my sites have now been officially declared a "Debilitated Economic AdSense Disaster" Zone or D.E.A.D Zone for short!

They're on their backs, legs akimbo being well and truly abused...so much for do no evil.

4:38 pm on Nov 30, 2007 (gmt 0)

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They're on their backs...

No offense, but considering that 90% of the time you post here your sites are on their backs, then isn't it time to consider that is their normal state? And the temporary upswings you consider normal (like the one you experienced in July) are just temporary upswings, outside of your normal earning patterns?

It really does look that way.

[edited by: martinibuster at 8:40 pm (utc) on Nov. 30, 2007]

4:59 pm on Nov 30, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I just cruised my site and the ads are all pretty familiar, and I have yet to see a Google Checkout ad. But my ecpm today is already slipping. I'm down to $6.61 now, but still way ahead of my historical levels. If I stop now I will have earnings equal to my November average.

I also have a 100% CTR on Adsense for Search, one click for one impression. $392 ecpm and $.39 earnings. That won't last.

5:13 pm on Nov 30, 2007 (gmt 0)

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but considering that 90% of the time you post here

Then I respectfully request that you re-read my posts since you're writing tosh and that it has only been the Glitch and the May ultra low EPC that I have complained about vociferously!

Are you honestly writing that it is completely normal for EPC to either double or halve overnight? Come on MB, I credited you with more nous than that!

And the temporary upswings you consider normal (like the one you experienced in July) are just temporary upswings, outside of your normal earning patterns?

Just how do you work that one out?

When AdSense is working normally I see very, very stable figures however when there are obvious algo/update problems I see wild, varying swings. I have 4+ years of AdSense data and it jumps off the screen like a sledge hammer when something strange is occurring.

One day I really do wish that something like this happens to you and then you'll know what it's like to be shafted.

5:56 pm on Nov 30, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I'm with EFV here. We've been rock-steady for the past month, with most of our metrics not even shifting much within the normal parameters. It's reached the point where I can make a reasonable estimate of each day's earnings. Hopefully the coming Xmas season will screw this up, and I mean 'up' in a positive sense.
7:00 pm on Nov 30, 2007 (gmt 0)

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My ecpm, earnings are definitely improved this week. I hope it's pulling up and out of the big drop it took beginning Oct. 19th.

I've only been using AdSense since mid-July, so I don't have as much tracking to follow and see trends as many of you. Until Oct. 19th, though, my earnings were increasing at a steady pace as I continued adding fresh content, traffic flow was increasing, page impressions were increasing, etc. I've been working hard at all this. :-) Then, beginning Oct. 19th, the ecpm and number of clicks dropped by over about -25% to -35% or more overall even though my traffic and impressions were the same - just like many have reported here.

While all this goes up and down, the Oct. 19th drop was an unusually dramatic drop that didn't go back up to figures prior to the drop - my overall averages stayed in this lower range. Although the ecpm and number of clicks varies from day to day, the numbers have still been way down since that Oct. 19th drop with only a few spikes up to my prior figures.

This week is improving overall, still not back up to where I was before Oct. 19th, but getting closer to where I was before the drop. I'm cautiously optimistic, emphasizing "cautiously". :-) But I am indeed learning that the numbers are like a roller coaster ride (like the pros here continue to tell people!) - and I'm seeing that sometimes the ride gets a little dramatic and bumpy. ;-)

I also try to figure out if any changes I made are a factor (good or bad) - ad placement and colors, ad sizes, ad formats, all of that - along with my SEO work, etc. Sometimes the results of my own changes are obvious, but not always, but I'm continuing to try to learn as much as I can. I keep notes on what I've done so I can track which changes are helpful or not.

At any rate, I continue to write fresh content, work on my SEO, and try to learn more about AdSense to make the most of it for the 4 sites it's on. I'm also a professional web designer/developer, and those 4 sites already had good SEO and traffic for their niches prior to adding AdSense, so I had a good advantage already, thankfully.

Frankly, I wish I'd added AdSense a LOT sooner, but I was resistant to add advertising to any of my sites. I've been amazed at the earnings so far, and I'm hopeful that as I gain more experience and knowledge that my earnings will also continue to grow as I develop these sites more, add more content, etc.

BTW, I think this is my first post, although I've been a regular visitor to Webmasterworld for years and a member for about 1-1/2 years or so. I've learned a lot here from many forum categories, topics. :-)

7:56 pm on Nov 30, 2007 (gmt 0)

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A bump up? No. CTR still down (could partially be due to the ad change now)... 26%. CPM still down 21.9%. Traffic up 3.5% and strong.

I wish I was in your boat :-)

8:42 pm on Nov 30, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Then I respectfully request that you re-read my posts since you're writing tosh...

I respectfully ask that you re-read your own posts. In fact, I'll help you out. ;)

June 2007

AdSense EPC Going Into Freefall!
Since June 8th 2007
[webmasterworld.com...]
Posted: June 12, 2007

Since June 8th my EPC has dropped 14.39%, my eCPM by 12.21% and comparing Monday 4th v Monday 11th my earnings were down 24.63% with the same number of clicks...

Ten days later:

Update a couple of weeks after the initial fall and my average EPC has recovered however not to previous levels:-(
8-21 June compared to:

1-7 June: -15.18%
All 2007: - 7.63%

Interestingly my CTR is also down 6.36% compared to all year metrics.

What is more disturbing is that compared to the same period 2006:

eCPM -32.3%
CTR -24.29%

July 2007
You started the month with a diary of steadily declining earnings.
[webmasterworld.com...]

June 2007 v January to May 2007
Page Imp -6.28%
Clicks -7.22%
CTR -1.06%
eCPM -5.20%
epc -4.33%
Daily earnings -11.24%

...Of more concern are my metrics for the first 4 days of July 2007 compared to July 2006:

Page Imp +36.42% one weekend day as opposed to two
Clicks -1.84%
CTR -28.01%
eCPM -43.96%
EPC -22.83%
Daily earnings -23.58%

But by the end of the July things are looking up.
Posted on July 25th,2007
EPC Skyrocketing
[webmasterworld.com...]

Since 07.07.07 my epc has gone up by 50% which has been a nice bonus since it had slowly been reducing month by month...

But four days later the bottom falls out and the site again sliding down a slippery slope:
[webmasterworld.com...]

Well I reckon all my advertisers have already switched off their campaign.
My eCPM has just fallen to its lowest level ever, down 25% since last week and that was pretty dire to say the least

August 2007
In August you were relatively quiet, avoiding the few monthly wrap up threads.
[webmasterworld.com...]

In a post in September, August 2007 is summarized thusly:
[webmasterworld.com...]

Mine have been improving nicely ever since 7th July with my average epc for august up just over 50% and so far this month another couple of percentage points.

Overal US Dollar earnings are now back to a par with 2006, tis a pity that it's depreciated so much however earnings are a darn sight better than just a couple of months ago.

However by mid September your earnings are back to their normally downward trends:

I hope this trend does not continue!
[webmasterworld.com...]

AdSense Page Impressions: +7.2%
Daily click average: The same
CTR: -8.95%
eCPM: -21.72%
EPC: -13.97%

Is anyone else who's been having problems seeing similar metrics?

And we all know that from October to the present your site has continued it's seemingly endless journey to the bottom.

So you see Mr. Pup, it's not tosh at all, but the truth. The normal state of your earnings and EPC is when they're in a freefall, or at least lower than the previous year.

Interestingly, one of your very first posts gives a good indication about what might account for relunctance for buying widgets online:

My widgets do not lend themselves to courier/parcel delivery services simply because of their bulk and weight, I guess there are many products like this, is it possible that Joe Surfer is now beginning to realise that the Internet cannot economically and efficiently supply such widgets unless bought in commercial bulk quantities and possibly, for my widgets, many only research the products and now not bother clicking since they know, or have been told, it's not practical?

Therefore when they see a Google Ad for a possible supplier 500-1,000 miles away they just don't bother?

One day I really do wish that something like this happens to you and then you'll know what it's like to be shafted.

Tsk, tsk. No cursing please. ;) The fact is that my products are not large industrial type items that are not normally purchased over the counter or with significant deliberation. For the most part they don't need to go into committee as your products normally do, and are not subject to multinational economic swings and trends. Which in my opinion probably has more to do with your declining fortunes, including the weak dollar, than it does with mysterious algo tweaks that can't resist your sites.

All I'm asking for is a bit of objectivity about the reasons why your site may be experiencing bumpy roads. Believe it or not, I'm trying to help you, as well as help clear the air of possible misconceptions.

If month over month, year over year, your earnings are in decline, then it may serve your interests to reconsider the niche and think about expanding into areas that are less exposed to your current exposures.

[edited by: martinibuster at 9:02 pm (utc) on Nov. 30, 2007]

8:54 pm on Nov 30, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I certainly hope it's a trend and not just three consecutive one day spikes. My ecpm has slipped down to $4.53 which is still nearly double my $2.50 average, but the EPC is still strong too.

Oh, and I've now got 2 search clicks on 3 queries. Go figure. My average is zero out of 15.

9:22 pm on Nov 30, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Have you nothing better to do MB? If that's the best you can do from nigh on 400 posts then I have proven my point that it has not been one long whinge.

Furthermore if you bothered to read any of my posts thoroughly then you would read that I was comparing all my metrics with long-term statistics provided by Google with sites that have been rock-solid and actually earned, CTRs, eCPMs, EPCs, within a fairly consistent daily average band.

Every time I have posted it has been regarding huge swings and fluctuations well outside of normal margins and usually all occurring within a very short period following a "maintenance".

I shall repeat my statement:

Are you honestly writing that it is completely normal for EPC to either double or halve overnight?

This has not been the normal behaviour of Adsense for 3+ years until the middle of 2007 when these crazy abberations first began. If your sites have been like that, fine, mine have not, that is why I believed a forum such as this existed so that fellow AdSensers could report their site experiences.

Obviously it is wrong of me to do so and it is precisely mod comments such as these that have driven away many experienced AdSensers to alternative forum boards and don't even attempt to tell me that I am also incorrect about this.

9:41 pm on Nov 30, 2007 (gmt 0)

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it is precisely mod comments such as these that have driven away many experienced AdSensers to alternative forum boards

I found Martinibuster's comments a lot more sensible and useful than the usual "AdSense hates me" or "my earnings are down, so Google must be pocketing a bigger share" venting that we see on the forum. He obviously did his research, with or without a Martini in hand. :-)

10:35 pm on Nov 30, 2007 (gmt 0)

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it is precisely mod comments such as these that have driven away many experienced AdSensers to alternative forum boards and don't even attempt to tell me that I am also incorrect about this.

So mods that use common sense drive away those with tightly wound tin foil hats?

He's even a better mod than I thought!

10:55 pm on Nov 30, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I found Martinibuster's comments a lot more sensible and useful than the usual "AdSense hates me" or "my earnings are down, so Google must be pocketing a bigger share" venting that we see on the forum. He obviously did his research, with or without a Martini in hand.

Agreed, but hopefully with a Martini or two.

Obviously it is wrong of me to do so and it is precisely mod comments such as these that have driven away many experienced AdSensers to alternative forum boards and don't even attempt to tell me that I am also incorrect about this

Well, I for one don't post as much as I used to in the AS forum but this has nothing to do with the Mods who imho do an excellent job.

It is more because many of the threads are variations of one another, and at the end of the day are all pure speculation.

Does it really help to know that there was an increase from one day to another of X% when other stats are unknown.

[edited by: Visit_Thailand at 11:00 pm (utc) on Nov. 30, 2007]

12:35 am on Dec 1, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I have charted my ecpm for the last 4 years, and inserted a trend line and monthly moving average.

Over that time there has been a very gentle decrease in ecpm.

I also used a monthly average as well. that shows a sine wave with the peak in 9/5/05 and the trough at 21/01/07.

It currently is rising out of the trough at the steepest angle ever.

What is noticable over the years is that the data points are clustering closer together. Which means there are less variablitiy in the highs and lows with the points more around the means in the last year.

From initial ecpm fluctuations of up to 6 points, they now cluster around 1 and a 1/2 to 2 points

Its a pity I can't post it sans all the identifying data.

All I can suggest from it is that everyone chart their data. Looking at daily/monthly data is meaningless when you see the broad fluctations in the results.

If anyone wants a link to a number free chart, just points and trends, then pm me. (if its allowed).

Its a pity we can't produce such charts and show them here, with all data removed all we have left as the points and the lines.

Is this allowed?

It would certinaly clear up any arguments, and its only a 10 minute job.

12:57 am on Dec 1, 2007 (gmt 0)

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good earnings for the past two days... triple what I normally get for a days earnings.

Mike

1:29 am on Dec 1, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I'm a returning oldtimer to WW, and I've been reading these "glitch" threads, convincing myself to not get involved because a) people are going to believe what they want to believe and b) since I cut back reading and stopped posting my actual adsense income as gone up about 40%!

Ok, first, Martini got it on the nose. But here's a few observations to try and bring some sanity into the income drops discussions.

1) The bidding system on adwords is set up so that it will act in extremely volatile ways and unpredictably. A chance in a single bidder's bids can have huge ramifications for income for a raft of keywords.

2) Adwords bidders have gotten more sophisticated, so you'll get more bid alterations, turning campaigns on and off and so on. We do it on the bidding side. We may bid 70 cents per click, and then drop down to a nickel.

3) If you look at the numbers posted in some of these threads from people who have lost income, what stands out is that while all have lost income, they haven't lost income for the same reason. One loses because of CTR drop. Another loses because of traffic changes, and another loses because of lower CPC revenue, etc. They ALL may look the same if you don't look at the real numbers, but they are often different.

4) It is possible to have discrete sudden changes in something as in "the perfect storm", where a number of variables combine and kick in together. I believe EFV mentioned this somewhere.

5) The only numbers that make sense to look at are overall ones, not hourly, not daily, etc. All you do is drive yourself nuts.

6) Now that we have the changes in click area affecting CTR, that definitely accounts for dropped earnings since that change connected with CTR.

7) We know that reports do not have the elements synced up with different elements updated differently. So PLEASE, folks, talking about what happens in the morning, and then trends during the day are complete nonsense and misleading. Cricky, we don't even know exactly if clicks or impressions are actually registered on the day we think they are.

8) Stop making assumptions. Stop trying to imagine what's behind the curtain. Go work on making a living, or your site, et al. That's what we did.

We lost about 35% of our revenue Oct, 2006. Beginning in Sept, 2007 but particularly during the time these folks have had horribly lowered revenue, our revenue has now returned to the levels of before (in effect a 45% increase). ALL metrics have improved, including CPM and EPC.

Now, I'm off into minor oblivion here, and I suppose as sanity prevails, if it ever does, I may even write something again. or read these forums consistently.

2:09 am on Dec 1, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I have to agree, watching daily trends will drive you nuts, trend things monthly. Most people will see an increase in income as they increase their own websites great webpages.

I think a lot of times, people sit on their a$$ and let their sites go a little stale, they lose some rankings and their incomes go down and they vent.

If you want to make more money, make more webpages and steal traffic from your competitor by making your site better than the competition. Thats the secret of adsense in a nut shell.

2:16 am on Dec 6, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Finally, this month has been better than the previous two. I always look forward to December. It's my top money making month of the year. I wish the other eleven would be so good.
2:59 am on Dec 6, 2007 (gmt 0)

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It's too soon to make educated guesses about December's overall performance (things are bound to slow to a crawl around Christmas), but so far, AdSense eCPMs are running about 10% ahead of November's, which isn't bad for my slowest time of year.
11:26 am on Dec 7, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Still trending down with the occasional short lived bounce, I hope its a roller coaster ride.
1:22 pm on Dec 7, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Our eCPM and revenue down 50% on 2 year average, though not CTR, are down per last month. This is on 100-150,000 clicks so for sure a trend for our site.

Lowest revenue from Adsense in must be...2 years at least. Traffic more or less the same. Sector online newspaper so wide area of topics (news, tech, gaming, movies, celeb, travel, health, etc).

Spoken to ADsense rep a few times and they just try to get me to run more units or video crappola. Waiting on Quigo to set us up for a test run, may as well check out some other options.

Maybe a blessing in disguise, plus Adsense is only 1/3 of income so some room to try out other and it might jump back.

I have to say though Adsense reps are particularly unhelpful. I mean friendly enough but will tell you nothing and speak in an opaque language peculiar to Google and communist bureaucrats. ;-)

[edited by: FattyB at 1:23 pm (utc) on Dec. 7, 2007]

5:49 pm on Dec 7, 2007 (gmt 0)

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It cannot be denied that Google does make changes from time to time that can have dramatic effects on the financial performance of some sites. Giving Google the benefit of the doubt, the long term effects of these changes may, in general, be to the benefit of the "white hats" and against the interests of the "black hats". But sometimes some good guys get hurt in the cross fire and sometimes G just gets it wrong.

It is, of course, also true that there may be a number of other causes for apparent anomalies in "the stats". These may well be a function of the site, the niche, international markets, currency trends etc. etc.

Many people tend to post about the negative trends and anamolies they detect in their data because these are of significant concern to them and they need to do something about it (maybe just let off some steam). This may explain the bias towards posts suggesting progressinve decreases in earnings.

But it can still be hard to explain how dramatic overnight changes in EPC based on significant sample sizes and compared to long term trends data (whether declining or otherwise).

6:12 pm on Dec 7, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Giving Google the benefit of the doubt, the long term effects of these changes may, in general, be to the benefit of the "white hats" and against the interests of the "black hats". But sometimes some good guys get hurt in the cross fire and sometimes G just gets it wrong.

And sometimes getting hurt has nothing to do with "white hats" or "black hats," or with Google getting anything right or wrong. It's just a consequence of supply, demand, and changes that are introduced to make AdSense more attractive to advertisers. Just because a publisher is "white hat" doesn't mean the publisher should expect tomorrow's AdSense earnings to be the same as (or better than) yesterday's. When change happens, sometimes you win and sometimes you lose.