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Google AdSense: eCPM Trends August 2007

     
11:02 am on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Except for one other day in two years. Appears to be a trend, not a one-day anomaly. Checked the seaonal averages from a year ago.

The EPC drop started near the end of last month; thought it could be end-of-month budget issues, but alas, apparently not. No immediate pick up in the first days of the new month.

Saw something of an upswing after Arbit Crackdown 1.0; in fact, about a 25% increase in EPC. That continued until now, when it seems to be back to normal, if not lower.

Perhaps we're all ready for a new round of tighter smart pricing?!

Oh well, I'm off to read my August Adsense Optimization Email. If anything can crank up the EPC, that must be it! :/

p/g

10:08 pm on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I live near Google's office in Santa Monica. If I drop off some chocolate cookies with my URL printed on them in vanilla frosting, do you suppose that might help my eCPM?

As silly as it may sound but - yes. This might be the smartest/cheapest marketing trick you might pull off...

10:12 pm on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I see one very powerful long-term trend in some niches pushing the eCPM up instead of down.

For selected areas of ecommerce, the Adwords advertisers are getting very, very good at formulating their ads (thus pushing CTR rates up), no doubt partly thanks to the evolution in analytics tools that help them know what works.

10:21 pm on Aug 2, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I live near Google's office in Santa Monica. If I drop off some chocolate cookies with my URL printed on them in vanilla frosting, do you suppose that might help my eCPM?


As silly as it may sound but - yes. This might be the smartest/cheapest marketing trick you might pull off...

Fried Chicken. Always works.

4:35 am on Aug 3, 2007 (gmt 0)

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For what it's worth, Advertising.com and ADSDAQ both started August in the cellar as well. We have noticed a modest drop in AdSense eCPM too but it is, after all, only August 2. July, however, was our best AdSense month after, so who's complaining?

While it's tempting to compare today to yesterday, this month to last month, etc., everything pretty much starts over each month. Sometimes the horses come shooting out of the gate, sometimes they seem a little off their feed.

My personal opinion is that many Sam and Sally Timebuyers are at the beach and insertion orders are a bit late being turned in. Time -- and only time -- will tell.

9:28 am on Aug 3, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I had a huge slump in June and July. Everything seems back on track now.
12:22 pm on Aug 3, 2007 (gmt 0)

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What's funny with me is when I see trends like this, I get pissed and then I wail away on my sites to try to build up impressions (the only thing I can really control) - which I upped 10% over the last week - with lower ecpm of course.

A twisted way for Google to get us off of our summer relaxed butts?

5:42 pm on Aug 3, 2007 (gmt 0)

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This thread is now a "featured home page discussion" at Webmasterworld.com, which just goes to demonstrate what I said earlier: It's summertime, folks! Welcome to the Webmaster World version of beach reading. :-)
5:50 pm on Aug 3, 2007 (gmt 0)

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This thread is now a "featured home page discussion" at Webmasterworld.com

Probably Brett just hired an ex-Googler. First task: to implement an algo for determining discussions that should be featured on the home page... ;-)

8:01 pm on Aug 3, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Today is even worse than yesterday. I have more visitors, but eCPM continues to decline. It's been cut by at least 2/3's as of the first of August. I'll wait this out for a week, but if this continues I'll completely covert my site to YPN.
8:07 pm on Aug 3, 2007 (gmt 0)

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.
8:24 pm on Aug 3, 2007 (gmt 0)

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...if this continues I'll completely covert my site to YPN.

No one could blame you. With affiliate programs, it doesn't matter what everyone else thinks is best. Instead, "the proof is in the pudding." You gotta go with what works best for you.

8:28 pm on Aug 3, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Summer months (June, July and August) are traditionally slow for many market segments -- people are on vacation, business and school buying (in US) slow down -- usually everyone makes a big push again in September... (many ad budgets focus on Sept to Dec for a large percentage of yearly sales).

I am wondering if sites having to do with domestic (US) travel, home sales, dining, etc., traditionally strong summer sales markets are seeing the same effect.

Advertisers usually only buy into deeply discounted advertising programs when they feel that no matter what, people are not buying.

I am in Massachusetts -- our Governer has just passed a "Sales Tax Holiday" for weekend of Aug 12 --- (the 5% state sales tax will be waived on all purchases up to $2500)... this is because retail dies in the summer.

8:47 pm on Aug 3, 2007 (gmt 0)

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I'm wa s looking at my stats since the 31st with a ver weary feeling: traffic the same, clicks down a little bit (10% or so) range), EPC down by a lot, and bottom line down by 50%

I did spot a few VERY odd ads:

WIDGETS
widgts widgets
widgets.com

Where widgets is a keyword I rank a little bit for but it's by far not a goal of the site. I'm speculating it might be that GOOG is trying to offer a broader range of topics (subjects outside of my niche)

Off to seek a wintel box to be able to run the preview tool to find the to be banned URLs, perhaps the @#$% MFAs are indeed back and they need to be trimmed again. Oh joy!

Ususally I've little dip on the last few/first few days of a month but nothing this dramatic. Anyway will hunt for MFAs and wait a few days, often it stabilizes back.

10:41 pm on Aug 3, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Summer months (June, July and August) are traditionally slow for many market segments -- people are on vacation, business and school buying (in US) slow down -- usually everyone makes a big push again in September... (many ad budgets focus on Sept to Dec for a large percentage of yearly sales).

My site is a travel destination on the Oregon coast so it appears whatever is going on it's not a seasonal problem.

I don't drink, but it's getting midy tempting right now. Too bad I can't even afford a beer with these miserable earnings.

11:50 pm on Aug 3, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Little bit off, but the first days of the month can be wacky!
June ecpm- $26
July ecpm- $30
Aug ecpm- $23

update: today's ecpm is $34.
that's more like it!

12:25 am on Aug 4, 2007 (gmt 0)

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There has been a change on the advertiser side. Advertisers now have access to the "Placement Report" with data going back to 1 June 07. We've run these reports on all of our clients' accounts and have identified many content network sites that underperform. We block these.

Also, many accounts are now in the CPC site targeting beta. We've moved high-performing sites into CPC site targeting and lowered content network bids for non-targeted sites.

If many advertisers are doing what we're doing, cpc bids on the median sites should go down while the cpc bid average remains the same. A few sites should be experiencing big increases, while the average site experiences decreases.

11:01 am on Aug 4, 2007 (gmt 0)

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sonny - You do realize that you're the only one posting eCPM numbers - and there is a good reason for that...

Hint: Look at the Adsense TOS - most of us don't want to get kicked out of their program, perhaps you don't care.

1:29 pm on Aug 4, 2007 (gmt 0)

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What troubles me is really how sudden the drop was on some sites. I track very different themes, and a travel related site, ( famous for not being the ideal spot in the summer ) first skyrocketed (!) then took a dive and didn't stop until it reached half of its lowest eCPM ever.

...

And has been there ever since.
CTR is the same.
Traffic is the same.
Advertisers are the same.
SERPs, rankings are the same.
No new sites on the market.

But when it comes to clicks, the average cost per click was halved overnight... and then halved the next day, and stayed so.

Sounds like smartpricing to me, but the site is too good to be smartpriced. It's on topic, it's original, it's everything you'd dream of.

...

My guess and the site's editors' guess was that yes, summer must see low competition in the area. We're sticking to this idea, and they won't change a thing.

...but ... you know... a change overnight?

I don't really get it.
I liked how someone said -- referring to the Google SERPs -- that it's now in summer mode.
I can't help but notice how accurate that remark was.

...

I'm not an AdSense expert, I'm an SEO.
I'm not sure if they should/needed to email AdSense support.
Has anyone seen such sudden seasonal changes before?

2:02 pm on Aug 4, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Slow PMSense(TM) last year August 2006:
[webmasterworld.com...]
[webmasterworld.com...]
[webmasterworld.com...]
[webmasterworld.com...]
[webmasterworld.com...]
[webmasterworld.com...]
3:45 pm on Aug 4, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Ok, here is my theory:

For the 1st time, in June 2007, Google didn't match analysts expectations regarding their quarter earnings, they missed market's expectations by 5%. Thats a lot in terms of the company's market value and this is the reason why Google's shares haven't performed so well lately.

Google has been significantly increasing the size of its organization and, of course, their expenses. This has been translated into their bottom line

If you were the CEO what do you do? (understanding that you don't want to downsize, make employees lose their perks or reduce your hefty bonus scheme).

What do you do if you were Eric Schmidt? You would go downstairs and say:

"Jeff*, my boy, you know, I've been thinking,... hmmm, maybe we've been too generous with our community of small adsense publishers, after all, don't you think we are the ones adding the real value to the Internet? I'm sure you agree with me Jeff, don't you? and by the way... I would like a little knob on my screen called 'sharing', so that I can move it up or down as much as I need results on our bottom line"

And this is the way Google got F-U by Wall Street.

* Jeff Huber
Vice President, leads the technology development and innovation efforts for Google's advertising and monetization systems, including Google's AdWords and AdSense programs.

4:27 pm on Aug 4, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Thank you carlitos. I must write a thank you note to Eric Schmidt for moving the nob towards my side. I seem to be having record days these last 30 days.

As it has been mentioned many times on the forum, not all publishers find declining revenues. Many are seing an uptrend also.

It has been mentioned that placement reports are available for adwords advertisers. Many publishers seem to miss the point that it may no longer be assumed that a good informative site (with unique content etc) will have good conversions. Google (previously) seemed to be relying on 'other' conversion data and some guess work while determing smart pricing. NOW they are letting the ADVERTISERS judge the VALUE of a click from a particular site.

IMO , a good way to get an idea if the particular site is converting is to try some Referral ads. If the site is getting some conversions, you can be sure that advertisers on the PPC side also have good conversions and are likely to UP spending and CPC.

5:16 pm on Aug 4, 2007 (gmt 0)

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IMO , a good way to get an idea if the particular site is converting is to try some Referral ads. If the site is getting some conversions, you can be sure that advertisers on the PPC side also have good conversions and are likely to UP spending and CPC.

Affiliate statistics can be useful, too. If your site is generating significant affiliate revenue, it's likely to be reaching an audience of spenders.

5:59 pm on Aug 4, 2007 (gmt 0)

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" "Jeff*, my boy, you know, I've been thinking,... hmmm, maybe we've been too generous with our community of small adsense publishers, after all, don't you think we are the ones adding the real value to the Internet? I'm sure you agree with me Jeff, don't you? and by the way... I would like a little knob on my screen called 'sharing', so that I can move it up or down as much as I need results on our bottom line"

You know Carlito, after being in the corporate world for 26 years, that sounds a little TOO real!
From what I have personally seen with companies, that doesn't really sound too far off at all.

The people I worked for were good at first, but as profits grew, they realized they could grease the wheels of their machinery with the blood of the workers way too easy.

That's why I left.

6:18 pm on Aug 4, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Cute hypothesis, but it would make more sense if all publishers were reporting sharp revenue declines. (In fact, some members of this forum have been reporting the opposite trend.)
6:31 pm on Aug 4, 2007 (gmt 0)

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In fact, some members of this forum have been reporting the opposite trend.

Lynch them! Lynch them!

6:54 pm on Aug 4, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Slow PMSense(TM) last year August 2006:

I don't think it has anything to do with August. My observation is that *every* month there is a thread about low eCPM.

9:10 pm on Aug 4, 2007 (gmt 0)

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no doubt, there's probably a dozen low ecpm threads every month, but maybe this one got put on the home page to see how big of a response it would get, huge response = great numbers of adsensers effected. This thread is having a low response, and therefore I conclude not many publishers have been effected. I would say in this particular case it's gotta be combination of the regular mood swings in adsense ecpm caused by all the usual reasons combined with advertisers getting conversion data on per site basis in the content network and making adjustments accordingly. Some go up while others go down.
9:46 pm on Aug 4, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Today is flushed down the toilet!
3:07 pm on Aug 5, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Our eCPM was down sharply the last two days of July and the first few days of August. Yesterday our eCPM was unusually high (turns out, our CTR was the highest we've seen in 3 months).

There are so many factors affecting the daily data, it's near-impossible to immediately distinguish between the first signs of "smart pricing" or other significant changes, and a meaningless fluctuation.

3:20 pm on Aug 5, 2007 (gmt 0)

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Friday's AdSense eCPM was lower than usual on my site, but yesterday's was great. Damn! How do I decide which day represents a trend? :-)
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