projected income help

how much can I assume It will make?

[csmba]

hi, I am thinking of making a website. it is not an EComerece one, it is a free community based. kind of EBay without $ switching hands or like craigslist (org) if you know it.
anyways, the only way I guess I would be able to maintain the site is using ads revenue. so I came to the experts (I never made a public site with more then 20 page views /day).

how much can I predict such a site will generate from ads (AdSense I guess in this topic (-: )?
is it per 1000 page views or per 1000 unique visitors?
thanks.

[bhartzer]

It's extremely tough to predict. Some sites have visitors that click on Adsense ads thus they're seeing 2-5 percent click-thru ratios (per page view). Other sites are seeing less than 1 percent, so it's a waste of real estate on the page.

Adsense is not different than any other form of online advertising. Some ads work for some sites and some don't work.

I wish I could tell you what you'll receive, but I cannot even begin to tell you. And anyone trying to predict it will have better luck looking into a crystal ball.

Sorry to sound so pessimistic, but until the site is up and running and you have visitors and have the ads on there you just won't know.

[trillianjedi]

Between zero and something more than zero.

And that's the accurate estimate.

Seriously, it's impossible to say. You have to run it and try it.

[csmba]

(-: ok ok I got the 0 to something that both of you guys gave me. I didn't thought anyone can tell me a hard number. I am doing projection here. what might seem like second nature to you guys is not for someone that never had an up and running website...
all I wanted is some numbers to put me in the right domain.
so one number is conversion rate of 1-2%? that sounds reasonable?
ok, one parameter is conversion 1-2%. I assume that means how many clicks I get per page view?
next one I guess is the range of how much that click is worth. again, don't kill me with a 1 cent to 10 dollars range. I am sure there is a average rate range that is a bit smaller. even conservative. what would that be?

because I know this issue depends on the site, I mentioned a site that I think caters to the same "type" of users so you guys get an idea.

thanks

[loanuniverse]

is it per 1000 page views or per 1000 unique visitors?

Adsense pays per click.

The amount paid per click depends on:

- Topic
- Certain on-page elements that might trigger a discount to a base EPC.
- Geographic location of your visitors
- Number of clicks per visitor {IMHO}

[alika]

It is pointless to come here and ask for people to give you a projection of your potential income. There are just too many factors, too many unknowns -- your sector, the keywords, amount of keywords. We can't give you an average amount as it varies on each site's characteristics

If you want to find out the potential amount per click, open an Adwords account to check how much advertisers are bidding on your keyword.

Download the preview tool at [google.com...] so you can have an idea of what ads Google will serve on your pages.

Some sites are earning thousands per month, while some are earning only a few dollars. The range is too wide to make any intelligent estimate.

[JohnKelly]

Start with a base earnings per click amount typical for your industry, and multiply by the number of clicks you receive. From THAT number, do the following:

- add 1% for each high-value keyword your site is optimized for.

- subtract 2% for each time you log into the AdSense control panel.

- add 2% for each well-thought out and informative post you make to the WW AdSense forum.

- subtract 5% each submit you post a "where's my check" post.

- subtract 10% each time you email Google with "where's my check".

That should give you a fair idea of what to expect :)

[csmba]

sorry.
being new and all I didn't realize that this forum is not to be used to ask questions as dumb as mine.
sorry for taking everyone's screen space.
regards.

(did this count as +5% or -5%?)

[ItsInThePost]

Why not contact the site you have refered to in your post and ask him to put adsense on his site. In a few days he will contact you with a big thankyou or to tell you what a waist of time.

[freeflight2]

haha either do what JohnKelly suggested or take my rule of thumb: you should make at least $1k/mo for every 100k unique users/mo (preferably mostly US) - that was always my minimum in completely different industries, before and since adsense is around. In certain industries (people ready to buy a house, people looking for legal advice) you can multiply that by 10 - but again: that was always the case, long long before adsense came around.

[billegal]

I've been with Adsense for more than a year and I can't predict one month to the next. Some months are great some are OK. Never low enough that I'd use another service as the primary contextual ad provider. Not yet anyway.

[uncle_bob]

While it is impossible to tell how much you can earn from a website, given the advertiser options available (adsense, affiliate, banners, etc) I usually tell people to expect 1 dollar per thousand hits (pages served) as a low average (depends a lot on site type content/forum and area mortgages/stamp collecting) If you get less, then try and work out why, if you get more (and I would expect you to get more) then be happy.

Of course it still needs them to work out how many hits they will get, but any previous website experience should furnish them with some ballpark ideas of their own.

Just my 2c worth.

[JohnKelly]

csmba, no insult was intended -- my post was only in jest to demonstrate the vagarities of AdSense income.

Sorry if I offended you.

[csmba]

Thanks freeflight2 and uncle_bob. I got now the information I asked for.
JohnKelly its OK. I understand that from your guys perspective there is just to much variance and parameters to give an answer. it is just that it is frustrating to try and get an idea and instead get only "we can absolutely give you no information" answers.
you need to assume that someone might actually have LESS idea then you, and giving him even a vague idea like freeflight2 and uncle_bob did is very helpful.
no I am not going to hold them to their word and come back here and sue them if I make less (or more (-:) then what they say, but it helps me know the range of numbers. if you never published a site, then how will you know if the range is $10/1K visitors or $0.0001/1k visitors?
that is basically all I was asking.

thanks to all that replied.

regards.

[richmondsteve]

Like others have said there are too many factors to give an estimate that will have any kind of accuracy to it. Since you've never built a public site with more than 20 pages views per day, perhaps you want to partner or consult with someone who's been down this path.

Since it's a community based site I'd expect a large percentage of repeat visitors. Based on the sites you referenced it sounds like a classified ad listing type site, which would probably get a wide variety of ads since it wouldn't be a topic themed site. Even though ads pay per click, for comparison and decision making purposes I like the metrics of EPM (earnings per 1,000 impressions) and earnings per 1k unique visitors. I've seen EPM for sites using AdSense range from about $0.10 (specific genre of music discussion forum with mostly long-time users and poor ad placement, CTR was under 0.1%) to more than $100 for a specialized travel informational site (CTR was over 10%). If I had to pick a conservative range for you, I'd probably say an EPM of $1.50 to 3x that, based on the miniscule amount of detail you've shared and the possibly flawed assumptions I've made in my head, taking into account my experience with AdSense for my company and my clients which may or may not even be relevant. ;-)

I realize you were probably hoping for something more useful, but your question is akin to me saying I printed up an internal company newsletter for my small company and now I want to know how much advertising revenue I can expect if I publish a 200-page glossy monthly magazine for my region.

[ken_b]

Hi csmba;

First, welcome to WW. This is a great place to get info and general advice.

On to your question.

As others have mentioned, it's difficult, if not impossible to give accurate potential figures for in a general sense.

Nevertheless, it seems to me that the $1.00 CPM is probably a reasonable possibilty. Could be a lot more, could be less.

Again, welcome to WW.

[ChrisKud5]

I would say roughly $5,000,000,000 USD per minute.

Make your site, do not plan on making anything, just do it for fun, get some well established traffic, and in 6 months slap up the ole adsense. Having high expectations for anything will just get you disapointed. Make a site that you want to make and think of adsense as a bonus.

[jomaxx]

Keep in mind that since the site doesn't exist yet you also don't even know within a factor of 100 how many pageviews you will get. In other words this could be your ticket to early retirement, or it may not even pay for your morning newspaper. (And those aren't intended to be extreme examples; both are reasonably plausible outcomes.)