Supply and Demand

How do you see yourself in year 2016?

[Hobbs]

My concern as a publisher is that time is not on my side odds wise, and dilution is inevitable. I wonder how my business model will look like 10 years from now.
Here are some facts:

A. The number of AdSense publishers is already HUGE and growing (just browsing around shows that)
B. The number of Advertisers is diminishing compared to the growth in the number of publishers.
C. No niche has a high enough barrier to entry to keep you safe.
D. The effect of Yahoo, MSN and others .. Coming to play is negligible as they most likely will not be creating new Advertisers but cannibalizing existing ones (unlike energy, they are a finite resource that cannot be created but can be destroyed)
E. The highest annual growth is in number of surfers, more traffic for publishers, but with diminishing Advertisers and dilution of Publisher's niche it would work an opposite effect and you fall into the SmartPricing black hole.
F. Having multiple sites and topics solves none of the above concerns.
G. What we will see 5 to 10 years from now is the rich becoming richer and the poor becoming poorer; with few top of the hill publishers getting all the good EPC, and probably millions of publishers with diluted topics (even if the content is good) struggling for SmartPriced 1 cent scraps.
H. Speaking of content, there will be a time when unique quality content will not cut it anymore as the number of publishers grow, so will the amount of unique quality content while the number of topics remain the unchanged.
I. Publishers will benefit with lower CPC, Google will survive by adapting to the best business model of the day and make money no matter what, what's left will be publishers, and lots of those.
J. Are we really heading due to all this to a cheap CPM world, and CPC becoming a niche commodity for top players only?

How do you see yourself in year 2016?

[GoldenHammer]

[But if Google Adsense is no longer around in 2016, then life would be very tough for me as it would be very difficult for me to find a job at the age of 50. :S ]

There is always better option around, probably Google would have something greater than AS for the pubishers by then. The question is whether we could catch it up.... :P

[GoldenHammer]

[By 2016 the internet will have been banned.
Every democratic capitol while have been hit with a nuclear bomb.
Those that survive will be in the mountains or tending their fields. ]

If that bothers you, then you better prepare it from now on, not have to wait till 2016 .... lol.

[europeforvisitors]

There is always better option around, probably Google would have something greater than AS for the pubishers by then.

Maybe, maybe not. But for publishers who haven't built their business models around AdSense, there will always be other options (as there are today).