I recently decided to rearrange some content on my site which shortened the landing page url by one level...i.e. /images/x/y/z/ became /images/y/z/. I changed the canonicals and updated every last inbound link under my own control to the new shorter url.
Within about a week I got a warning from Google search console that Google had selected the old url as the canonical, but then proceeded to index almost all the new URLs. However, traffic to one of the URLs (by far the most important with the most traffic) has dropped 91% in the last week as a result. I double checked everything...canonicals correct, most of the new URLs in the index, 301 redirects in place and working.
The other two affected URLs have increased in traffic considerably. Has anyone else had experience with losing ranking due to this type of situation, and did it recover? I just checked in USA in three states and I ranked #1 for the term in all locations, so this isn't adding up.