Panda and Seasonality

[Hissingsid]

If, as many believe, the Panda algorithm includes elements that assess traffic, bounce rates etc and it is a self learning algo, ie if these elements change for a site it reacts, then how will it cope with very seasonal niches?

Looking at my own WMT "Search Queries" report for a site in an extremely seasonal market subjectively I would think that Panda could react negatively against my site on a short term basis. If it looks back at long term history and has a seasonality element then things would be different. This site did not suffer until Panda 2.4 but I guess that this might be a coincidence as this is the time when there is a marked step change in searches and traffic. I'm hypothesising that it could be that an earlier version of Panda was sitting as a time bomb waiting to demote my site but hadn't been given the signal until mid to late August.

If one of the Panda signals that causes a demotion is a change in traffic for the incumbent #1 (and probably #2 and #3) then in a highly seasonal niche market Google will cause the issue that it is reacting to. The sites in the top 3 will show a greater fall in traffic and possibly traffic quality in a seasonal market because Google provides those top 3 with much more traffic than those below. The negative signal will therefore be greater for the top 3 at that time. Another 3 will go to the top and enjoy a year of traffic until the same seasonal cliff hits them and Panda will react against them.

I hope that the Google engineers that designed this thing were bright enough to realise that annual cycles need to be included in the algo.

Am I talking complete tosh or does this chime with anyone else?

Cheers

Sid

[netmeg]

I dunno, most of my own sites are seasonal in nature, and as far as I can tell, have all been unaffected. The various Panda updates have come both off season and in the middle of peak season (depending on the site) There's got to be a gazillion seasonal sites out there, so I'd be kind of amazed that Google couldn't account for that.

[Hissingsid]

I hope you are right. It would be tantalising if I had to wait for a year to see if the site moves back up.

[tedster]

I hope that the Google engineers that designed this thing were bright enough to realise that annual cycles need to be included in the algo.

I assume so - the regular pre-Panda SERPs have had a heavy seasonality component for years. Not just seasonality, but day of the week and even time of day. So both the awareness and the historical data are alive and available at Mountain View

[falsepositive]

We're approaching the start of our higher traffic season, which lasts around 6 months. My site is heavily pandalized, but in the past month or two has been inching up slowly. I am wondering now whether it is to do with the steady ongoing improvements I've been making to the site or whether it's just due to purely seasonal factors. It would be great to know that our efforts are slowly being rewarded, but with Panda less than a year old, it's hard to know for sure. I have another non-Pandalized site in the same niche and it's gone up a bit also. But the gap between my 2 sites seemed to be more pronounced during the summer months, a traditionally weaker time for my niche.