I probably spend more time than I should analyzing movement in the web as a whole. The big picture stuff. However, I have something and I believe it's going to become highly problematic for Google.
Let's start with some facts. Adsense publishers are in a downward trend, whereas advertising on Google's own properties is rising. The reliance on organic driven, "old school" traffic is in decline. The dependence Google has on webmasters and their websites is less than before, and it's going to continue that way. If this wasn't the case, then we would see reports showing free traffic turnarounds and success stories. I think that's called optimism? Those revenue streams need to be replaced, and it's fairly clear that it's happening. Big sites exist and brand sites exist as always, but the reliance on the little players and their sites is in decline. We can likely argue the degree of declines, but the decline is pretty clear.
Here is where I'm going with this. It's called scrutiny by watchdogs and governments (FTC). As Google relies more and more on their own properties, the greater the evidence of favoritism. If their ad revenue become reliant on their own properties, then people are going to cry foul. No?
If Android becomes a one-stop shop, then what does that say for competition issues? Search is their own, but as they start relying more on providing answers and keeping people on Google Now and Google.com itself, then don't you believe that the FTC and others might start getting nervous? If your phone needs the internet (websites) less and less, and Android is Google's platform with advertising opportunity, then how is that not becoming a conflict?
If websites and adsense continues to get replaced by advertising on their own properties, and thus they need to ensure traffic to their own properties, how can that avoid massive scrutiny at some point? If Android is locked down, and to an extent it is, then that is their way of ensuring an advertising platform. I just don't see how they can avoid massive scrutiny. Google Maps? If that's more prominent on local searches and is a growing advertising stream for them? All the phones and even something like Android Auto has an ulterior motive. It becomes a revenue stream and it's locked down to Google's advertising revenue. I just think it gets much messier for Google as they look to their own properties for showing off ads.
When Google could gain advertising outside of their own properties, I believe there was less of an issue. However, as people need to go outside of the garden less and less, please explain how that doesn't become a problem. Microsoft had issues with their OS not being open enough. When it comes to an OS like Android, I cannot avoid some parallels, yet in a far more extreme nature. Am I off base on this?
