Forum Moderators: goodroi
Google Inc.'s (GOOG) share of the U.S. Internet search market dipped a full percentage point in July when compared to June's total, according to research released Friday by comScore Networks Inc."We think (the) loss in domestic market share could signal a topping point" for Google, he wrote. "We do not expect Google's aggressive market share gains to continue in perpetuity."
Please read stats with a bit of statistical weary eye. A 1% difference is well within a margin of error.
How reliable is Comscore data anyway?
MSN from Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) retained its 12.8% share
There is a growing line of "I told you so's", waiting for the day Google drops something.
I think all those numbers are suspect. 5%+ each for Ask & AOL. Traffic stats from a varity of sites don't reflect that at all. It could be a tipping point but if G just stops growing, that in of itself could be a tipping point.How reliable is Comscore data anyway?
This explains the reliability of comscore data. Full of crap.
I see Google making big increases in market share in the next six months.
The only thing that I see is that many people waste their precious time making predictions that tend to be
a) wrong
b) irrelevant if right.
I still remember the pros discussing how there would be a "new deal" after yahoo bought 2 other decaying search engines. Well, I'm still very impressed by the outcome.
This time we don't even see anything close to this, just an obscure spin wizard diagnosing a 1% drop in market share. Come on pals - have a look at your own stats - and then back to work - to increase your own market share.
nerd.
Vincevincevine:
I see Google making big increases in market share in the next six months.
This I see as less likely.
But as Techrealm says... we'll see in six months. That'll be Christmas and we'll all have good ROI data across the big three (in PPC, that'll be the first time we've had all three). The ROI data will start to shape the market share - as will vista and live.com of course.
Unless MSFT can start becoming proactive in forming these kinds of partnerships, then Google are not likely to lose a significant part of their marketshare.
The problem that Google has on the other hand is that the novelty of their brand is wearing off, and they have not seen much success in the majority of their other projects (no matter what the "coolness factor" of them may be.)
For now, the strategy to be Google should be for MSFT to provide an AdSense type system to webmasters that pays significantly more, and even that would be a very tough job.
Webmasters made Google, period. Before we see significant market diversification, webmasters need to start promoting other search services, period. Until there is something as attractive as Google to promote, then that's not likely, period.
Google search is way too powerful and competitors are way too weak. An unhealthy market with arrogance and incompetence at either sides. Surfers and publishers need something better.
I don't think it is so much that the competitors are weak; it is that to google is to search. Humans are creatures of habit, generally speaking, so they won't switch to something else if they're satisfied with what they have. G is easy, convenient, and works well enough to satisfy most of the search-using population.
That said, there is not much room for anyone to significantly grow their market share (unless one of the others' businesses collapse). MS may pick up some share with Vista.
Google search is way too powerful and competitors are way too weak.
The free market says otherwise, which is another way of saying that users have cast their votes in a democratic election, and a majority of those votes have gone to Google.
If it's any consolation, Google has less dominance in the search industry than some other brands have in their industries. For example, Frito-Lay has 80% of the corn-chip market and a 60% share of the entire "salty snack" market in the U.S., compared to a single-digit market share for its nearest competitor. (I wonder how many people in the "salty snacks" business spend their time railing against Fritos and Lay's Potato Chips on snack-food forums?)
To grow Ask.com (which has definitely happened recently) all you need to do is a little advertising and sponsorship of an NBC TV show.
All that says to me is that the conqueror of search will be anyone who wants to buy it! Forget the quality of results (that's a geek thing), most search users are sheep and are pushed by the dogs of advertising.
20% of my clients have switched to Ask.com in the last 2 months. Their demographic is independent business people, they switched because of "Treasure Hunters".
Search is a very fickle market, it isn't cola, it isn't chips, it is very fickle and "free" to switch at a whim!
Goog is way overpriced and will crash and burn as soon as MSFT decide to buy the market. 3 years ago I predicted MSFT would "buy the market" within 12 months......so I guess I will now predict they will buy the market within 3 years....LOL!
The timing makes no sense to me, the overall outcome is however inevitable!
20% of my clients have switched
Looking at my stats, I would say they're the exception rather than the norm.
I suspect Googles market share is actually up, not down. I have not yet seen any valid reason for it to slow down versus the competition.
Goog is way overpriced and will crash and burn as soon as MSFT decide to buy the market.
Money versus brand is not an easy battle. Brand is so so powerful.
TJ
Google Tops Out According to Comscore
... actually this was not according to Comscore ... but instead according to ...
Bear Stearns & Co. Inc. analyst Robert Peck
Come on - its one thing to misinterpret stats and skew them for a front page story, but perhaps we should all be clear this is 1 analyst who made this statement. this thread is a waste and I couldn't care what Mr Peck says about this. His statement is a bit irresponsible, imo.
Goog is way overpriced and will crash and burn as soon as MSFT decide to buy the market.
Microsoft spent hundreds of millions of dollars to topple AOL with MSN back in the 1990s, when AOL and MSN were proprietary online services.
MSN didn't succeed in nibbling more than a snack-size portion of the online-services market even when the MSN icon was on the Windows 95 desktop.
Brands and user habits carry weight in the online market, just as they do in the "salted snacks" market.
this thread is a waste and I couldn't care what Mr Peck says about this.
Perhaps YOU don't care.
But it's pretty unusual for a firm such as Bear, Stearns to be so negative in it's analysis. The tradition on Wall Street has been "if you don't have anything good to say, don't say it".
When they say something this negative, it is significant.
I'd like to see the full analyst's report, though.
I'll go last, though.
-Shorebreak
Any side bets about the next months stats? ;-) Bet they go back up and keep going back up until the end of the year? ya...pretty safe money.
All that says to me is that the conqueror of search will be anyone who wants to buy it! Forget the quality of results (that's a geek thing), most search users are sheep and are pushed by the dogs of advertising.
There is more truth to your words than you realize. However, the buyer must buy Google, not its audience.
Perhaps YOU don't care.But it's pretty unusual for a firm such as Bear, Stearns to be so negative in it's analysis. The tradition on Wall Street has been "if you don't have anything good to say, don't say it".
When they say something this negative, it is significant.
I'd like to see the full analyst's report, though.
Sure, and I agree its not fair to say without reading the full report. But Google and Wall Street in the same sentence says enough. There is a history there as well.
Now, if it was Bambi who was reporting this .... that would be a different story probably ;)
Back track a step, and ask why brand is so "Powerful" ..... opps...because money made it that way!
MSFT has the OS market and the browser market, it has the money, it controls the "general" users. I really like Ask's attempt to make a hole in its amour, but, realistically it is a war of nonsense.
In my view MS has won the war already, but, is afraid to admit it for being persecuted as a predator in the USA and Europe. The only downside to MS is being too successful.....now how do you balance that?
and they have not seen much success in the majority of their other projects (no matter what the "coolness factor" of them may be.)
and on the down side
Web Accellerator
Froogle
Print (maybe)
I think they've done pretty well.
[edited by: Powdork at 9:45 am (utc) on Aug. 24, 2006]
