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Burst of the AdSense Bubble

September 2005 seems to mark the start of Burst

     
12:39 pm on Sep 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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Except of a few publishers, it is being generally seen that AdSense earnings are falling. It is not the usual high ups and down now. It is a downtrend spread across topics and geographic locations.

Earlier, it seems that YPN would actually increase the value for an AdSense publisher, who decides to stick on, but it seems opposite now.

The Advertisers, i guess, are now trying cheaper options of advertising like overture and other ppc and the overall earnings of AdSense seems to be reduced and has its impact on the publisher community.

It may be too early to conclude anything, but with atleat 8 out of 10 people feeling the downtrend, it seems that AdSense revenue bubble might burst or atleast deflate to a level where it is not too attractive for publishers to monetize their content with AdSense.

It so many publishers are feeling the heat, I am sure that the heat must have been felt at the Googleplex also.

12:48 pm on Sept 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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I guess I am one of the lucky ones then. My ECPM is slightly above August and right at the average for the entire year. Looking forward to above average ECPM in the 4th Quarter.

With this said my ECPM is 50% of last year (starting in January 05) but I believe this is due to a large increase in my traffic.

12:50 pm on Sept 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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My earnings are consistant with time of year / previous months performance - not seeing any bubble burst here.

MG

12:52 pm on Sept 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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Hmmm, upped my content advertising today because the opposite is true in a particular niche. AdSense is great in certain markets and not so in others, that is the whole of it.
12:52 pm on Sept 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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my earnings have been really bad for the last week but i hesitate to diagnose the reasons why until i have suffered some more ;)=

where do you get this " 8 out of 10 feeling the downtrend " data stuff? i doubt you have interviewed every adsense publisher out there so can i assume you are just inventing these figures?

solid facts are needed to make this worthwhile for discussion.

12:54 pm on Sept 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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You're not basing this on a few forums that you visit, by any chance? :)
12:56 pm on Sept 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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I have not changed anything on my site but my Adsense Earning this month have been up almost 40% this month, so no downword spiral here.

In fact I am very happy with this month so far. :)

I went from $85 a day to $135 a day.

12:58 pm on Sept 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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Sobriquet:

I challenge the figures you are quoting as fact:

> atleat 8 out of 10 people feeling the downtrend

EXACTLY where did you see this number stated that was derived by statistically sound polling methodology & acceptable survey sampling size to assure accuracy within, say, + or minus 5% standard deviation?

There hasn't been any such study conducted. Therefore your statement is just pure speculation. Most likely you just wish to cause agitation and angst amongst this board's participants.

Do you have anything CONSTRUCTIVE to contribute?

1:00 pm on Sept 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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Basing trends upon forum posts is a dangerous business.

I'm not going to post anything if my earnings are unchanged. I'm probably not going to post anything if I have a modest increase. I'm only going to post if I have a massive increase or a crushing drop.

If we guess that 9/10 of users won't have an enormous change, and we guess that 9/10 those who have had an enormous change won't post about it, your 8 out of 10 becomes just 8 out of 1000.

1:01 pm on Sept 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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Perhaps he interviewed a series of dentists associated with Colgate.
1:15 pm on Sept 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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Compared to last month my earnings are down. EPC is a bit down and I'm also getting a few thousand visitors a day less.

But compared to a year ago EPC and CPM are a bit higher.

1:24 pm on Sept 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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I expected to do badly because of Summer, but by using all the tips from the Adsense forum i am getting Winter earnings, from a lot less traffic.
1:28 pm on Sept 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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I suspect the 8/1000 figure mentioned by vince is probably far more accurate.

The reality is people doing well don't generally post to say "I'm doing well".

So if you see a handful posting to say their revenue has dropped, you can automatically assume it to be a very small proportion.

I'm one of the 992.

TJ

1:42 pm on Sept 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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My CPM on both my main subject-specific channels has remained reasonably high and reasonably constant for over a year. I don't see any sign that a bubble exists or that it is in danger of bursting.

I'm more concerned about the whole economic-prosperity bubble deflating due to oil prices and terrorism concerns and generally becoming overextended.

1:58 pm on Sept 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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>>Perhaps he interviewed a series of dentists associated with Colgate.

LOL that's one of the wittiest replies i've read for a long time.

back on topic - no downturn here, my ecommerce sites and adsense earnings fluctuate month on month but nothing that looks like a downward trend that i can see.

2:20 pm on Sept 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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I saw a downturn due to the long Labor Day weekend last weekend, as many of us did. But since then, I have been doing better than normal.

Be sure you aren't taking Sept 1-6 into account if you have a significant amount of US-based traffic.

2:14 pm on Sept 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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Everybody talking about the adsense,but about the traffic which is the basic of earning in adsense.
I tried many targeted traffic provider sites but that traffic is of very poor quality,you cant expect much from that.
As i am new in this field i dont have much of knowledge about marketing the website.
So,lets discuss the best marketing techniques available
2:40 pm on Sept 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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Compared to a year ago, things have been rock steady or slightly higher. Month on month comparisons between 2004-2005 are the way to discuss this issue. I've been impressed in 2005 in that increases in traffic are actually leading to linear increases in revenues, which was not true for 2003 and 2004 where the more I worked the same I got.
2:54 pm on Sept 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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I am rather glad for once to see that most people did not agree to my topic!

I guess my estimate of 8 out of 10 was an overstatement.

Thanks to all of you for keeping up with the hopes.

hunderdown

2:56 pm on Sept 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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seth256, good idea, but you should start a new thread to discuss marketing ideas.

Re the original post--like many others, the first week of Sept. was not good for me, but that's not surprising, considering Labor Day and Katrina. Last few days have been much better, and this Sept. should be at least triple LAST September....

3:28 pm on Sept 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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I've actually been surprised at how consistent Adsense earnings have been given the large number of changes to both Adsense/Adwords and the beta of YPN.

I get a little anxious every time a new "feature" is introduced, but so far I wouldn't be able to tell you when they were introduced by looking at a revenue graph.

3:33 pm on Sept 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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I get less traffic on the weekends, but I've been getting a higher eCPM on the weekends than the weekdays, so the weekends have become more profitable. I suspect this is because there is a general slow down in traffic over the weekend, so there are fewer advertisers hitting their daily spend limits.

I've seen this since the beginning of AdSense, but lately it's becoming more pronounced. Does anyone else see this?

3:43 pm on Sept 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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Slight low, but still greatful.
cheer up, work hard.
Adsense is still the best.
4:00 pm on Sept 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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It's been pointed out that September's trends in 2003 and 2004 were both downers as well. This is just a seasonal fluctuation. It'll be fine.
4:16 pm on Sept 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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It may be "seasonal fluctuations" for some, but many (me!) are seeing a huge cut in income following the August 19 changes.

I'm still half to two-thirds down my pre-19th figures, with no signs of a return.

4:22 pm on Sept 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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Ah yes, the monthly "AdSense Sky is Falling" post.

I was wondering what was taking so long.

4:48 pm on Sept 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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mine's gone up. revenue, and epc
4:59 pm on Sept 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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"I suspect the 8/1000 figure mentioned by vince is probably far more accurate."

Yeah Right!

5:19 pm on Sept 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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I think some publishers, well, me at least, may need to discount increases in income from the last half of August.

After the changes in Adwords pricing it appears to me that some advertisers had some difficulty adjusting to the new system. On my site, that looks like it resulted in a big pile of additional earnings that could not be justified on any other basis that I know of.

We aren't far enough into September to say for sure, but it's beginning to look like more and more advertizers are figuring out how to maintain a lower, and perhaps more rational CPC.

In the long run I see that as a good thing, because it means fewer advertizers will opt out or just run fewer ads.

9:07 pm on Sept 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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I have seen an earnings drop - quite substantial - since August 19th.

However, this was a traffic drop + an eCPM drop.

eCPM has cimbed back to normal, traffic still hasn't, though its inching up.

Nothing yet to indicate an overall Adsense slump - even my traffic slump seems to have affected only a few (No ranking drops).

Nothing to justify a doomsday prediction yet. :-)

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