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Bid Price Up - Earnings Same

         

endomorph1

11:05 am on May 19, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



I am and Adworder and Adsenser in the same market (niche travel) and I have been watching the figures over the last couple of weeks.

The bid price (and cost) for the prime keyword is now five times higher than it was two weeks ago (currently £9 / $16.5)

Yet my earnings on other sites, but of exactly the same topic, have stayed the same.

Anyone explain?

I guess G is taking a bigger chunk?

Jon_King

11:51 am on May 19, 2005 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



I think you have to know that those companies making the high bids are actually the ones served to your site.

For some keywords, I never see the top bidders on my sites. I keep pretty fair record of exactly what advertisers are served to me so I can cross reference their particular bids. This way I have a truer picture of the percentage I'm receiving.

DavidDeprice

2:14 pm on May 19, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



No, that's not the case. If you are a smart marketer (sometimes I entertain myself with the idea that I am one), you will almost always turn off contextual advertisement. My ROI for most Adwords is around 400% and I am not the only person to get these spectacular resutls. I know of no person who get 400% return on investment with contextual ads (there are probably some). I still have bids on contextual ads, but these are set up as a separate campaign and I pay 5-6 cents max. I also have AdSense account, so I am on both sides. Smart people do understand that these enourmous profits from Adsense result from igronance of other marketers, who simply don't understand that in most cases the ROI on bidding for keywords when a person is searching for something will be MUCH higher (as in 2 to 10 fold higher), compared to clicking AdSense ads. So when bids go up, marketers actually start tracking the results and they see that, in fact, it makes absolutely no sense paying for certain terms top dollar when it's an AdSense click. That traffic simple converts much worse than a genuine search traffic. That's what's happenning - people may look at their budget, dump contextual ads an increase their bids for search only keywords. I've had a 10%-50% conversion rate for search terms, but never that high for AdSense clicks.

hunderdown

2:18 pm on May 19, 2005 (gmt 0)



endomorph, if I understand one aspect of smart pricing correctly, the top bid price is actually not what you need to know. You need to know the #2 bid. The #1 bidder, regardless of what they bid, only has to PAY 1 cent more than the actual #2 bid.

That may be part of what you're seeing. An advertiser who wants to stay at #1 has increased their bid, knowing that they'll only pay more if the #2 bid also goes up.

DavidDeprice

4:03 pm on May 19, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Yes, BUT!
When you see the number 1 or 2 bids it does not mean that this amount is BEING PAID for contextual ads (i.e. AdSense). This has nothing to do with smart pricing. For instance, my highest bid is 36 cents, I think. I have contextual ads for this term turned off. I have another campaign where I have search turned off and contextual ad on. I pay 5 or 6 cents FOR THE SAME KEYWORD. If I was the only person in the market and my ad was running on your site, you'd get 2-4 cents, not 30. All experienced marketers know that all keywords are not created equal, so they pay for the same SEARCH keyword MORE than for ADSENSE (once again, same term). I believe that Adsense earnings (including mine) are highly inflated because of that - people pay my over a buck for some keywords (don't know which ones, since I don't do any artificial tweaking), but they aren't worth that much if they aren't being searched. If AdSense earnings will go down, it'll be because of marketers getting smarter and paying different for the same keyword (Search vs. Context). It's already happening

Rodney

5:34 pm on May 19, 2005 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



For instance, my highest bid is 36 cents, I think. I have contextual ads for this term turned off. I have another campaign where I have search turned off and contextual ad on. I pay 5 or 6 cents FOR THE SAME KEYWORD.

Interesting. I have never thought of setting up an adwords campaign that way. I'm going to have to try that out.

DavidDeprice

6:02 pm on May 19, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Man, you are throwing your money away if you don't do it already.
ALL contextual add has to run separately, because the conversion is anywhere from 100-500% worse.
Just think about it. If you enter "LA Dentist with payment plans" in Google, how likely are you to go to a dentist's office? But if you see a contextual ad that says something like this
"Affordable Dentists, 9 offices in greater Los Angeles area, flexible payment plans", you may click just because you are curious. You are insane to pay the same for context you pay for true search.
Since I found no way to bid different amount on search and context in the same campaign, I just run separate campaign. Perhaps some of the dinasaurs here know a way to specify different ammount for context vs. true search in the same campaign, but I don't no of one.

But, I think that this discussion is very relevant to AdSense earnings, including mine. Sooner or later, marketers will smarter up, and each Adsense click will yield 1/5 of the true search click.

hunderdown

6:14 pm on May 19, 2005 (gmt 0)



David,

Yeah, I've seen your strategy discussed by other people. I don't think it's widespread but the savvier AdWords users do seem to know about it.

Definitely another cause of declining earnings, and one that might get worse.

alika

6:34 pm on May 19, 2005 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



Nice to hear of these techniques. It shows that there are other legitimate reasons for declining incomes other than smart pricing and G reducing publishers' revenue share.

DavidDeprice

7:13 pm on May 19, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Well, folks, it's just a matter of time. There are probably hundreds of thousands of marketers who don't know what they are doing and don't track results. Those who do, know that difference between Adsense visitor and true search visitor is enourmous. It varies, but it's literaly 500% on average. In order for it to be sustainable, Adsense marketers have to pay for a keyword the amount that lives them with a positive ROI. Right now people run very profitable Adwords campaign and don't realize that the contextual component (Adsense) may not be profitable. I know it's not for me, unless I pay 6 cents. So I would expect that CPC for expensive keywords to go down pretty drastically when people start doing their math and see things.
There is a tool called AlterWind Log Analyzer Pro 3.0 that can tell you how good your traffic converts based on term or referer. With it, I can tell which AdSense keywords/websites are profitable, and which ones are not. As more and more webmasters get their hands on this type of tools and start seeing that most of adsense terms they are paying for don't convert nearly as well, there'll be troubles. AdSense will stay, but the average cost per click will go lower (and search cost pay click may go even higher).

Rodney

7:28 pm on May 19, 2005 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



Don't forget though, that not all content sites are alike.

There are advertisers seeing greater returns on content pages than in search pages.

At this point, it's not crystal clear which is the exception to the rule.

While content may deliver a lower ROI for your industry, it may be delivering a higher ROI for another.

endomorph1

7:35 pm on May 19, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Jon_King,

The companies are being served on the site, on a regular basis. In fact the top 7 companies are. They appear on search and contextual ad's.

hunderdown,

I know what the top price is and also the prices to get in the top 5.

If I bid £10.00, I can get top spot.

If I bid £8.75, I can get in 2nd place 90% of the time.

If I bid £8.50, I can get 3rd place most of the time.

DavidDeprice

8:24 pm on May 19, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



yeah, it's true. Perry Marshall talked about this.
There are some markets where context works better.
For instance - self-help and motivation/prospertity type of market. People aren't likely to search for
specifics, but they frequent certian websites on the topic and that's the only way to capture that audience. But that was not the point. The point is a lot of our money comes from igronarce by marketers. It's amazing. There are some PPC management companies who don't turn context ads off and bid the same for context as they do for search.
STUPID!
Here is an example of you avoid paying much for AdSense. I sell discounted software. In fact I am a leader in my niche - downloadable discounted software. I could pay for "cheap software", "discounted software", "software discounts", etc. I've tried this and the traffic from Adsense starts to trickle if I pay 14 cents or more. Way too much for me (for AdSense traffic). So what I did instead was I went to Download.Com and they have thousands of software titles. I selected titles I don't sell. I don't want to bid on them in search, because I don't have discounts for them. But I went ahead and created separate context campaign and I get the same type of traffic for 5 cents.

hunderdown

9:06 pm on May 19, 2005 (gmt 0)



endomorph: OK, thanks for that. You didn't say anything in your original post to indicate that you knew what the top five bidders were bidding.

Now that you've said that, there remain several possible reasons why you're aren't seeing more on your bottom line. What about the context/search differences that David D. talks about--or do you know what the five top bidders are doing in that area too? Since you know so much about the top five bidders, do you know if one of them has started to report conversions to AdSense, causing smart pricing discounts to possibly kick in? Do you know for sure that your traffic is essentially the same, and so converting at a similar rate?

Personally, I don't find this degree of analysis of my stats very useful, because there are so many factors that are not only out of my control but possibly even unknown to me.... I certainly don't worry about how much of a share of revenue Google is keeping, because I know I have no control over that. Look at what you can control or at least influence, and work on that.

DavidDeprice

9:27 pm on May 19, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Top bidders almost always NOT pay for context.

Here is an example.

The term "PPC" costs about 5 bucks, just checked it with overture bidding tool. And it's probably worth it, when you are buying a search term. But AdSenses "PPC" insn't worth 5 bucks. No way!
This is a webmaster forum. Let's say AdSense ads were here. Here is the biggest problem with Google's AdSense and Google is actually is fixing it:
OK, here I go. This website has a target audience - webmasters.
Let's say we started talking about HTML. Ads about HTML would appear. HTML is worth about 20 cents (Overture). If we talked about AdSense, ads about AdSense would appear ("AdSense" is worth about 30 cents). If we talked about "web design" than related ads would be shown ("web design" tops at a buck). Finally, if we'd start a thread on "PPC" ads on PPC would be shown.
Now, my question is - do you see a BIG problem here? Because a lot of people don't, but the problem exists. The audience is the same and it's worth the same, but you'll be charged more based on a keyword.
For instance I can run an AdSense ad about "New PPC Optimization Tool". If I bid on "HTML", I'll pay 20 cents per click, if I bid on "PPC" I'll pay five bucks. Remember, we are not talking search here - just context. When a visitor clicks an ad, visitor does not care what the keyword was.
You'll be surprised, but I can run a context ad for PPC related product, bid on obscure terms related to webmasters, and for a number of them, I'll get a higher CTR than a context campaigh where I bid for "PPC". And if you look at ROI, you'll be amazed - you can bring people for 5 cents a piece instead of paying 5 bucks, and it'll be the same targeted audience, because your ad wording pre-qualifies them (it should, anyway).
This is why it's good that Google is going to go with banner ads - it's much more fair to bidders.

europeforvisitors

11:00 pm on May 19, 2005 (gmt 0)



Don't forget though, that not all content sites are alike.

All advertisers aren't alike, either. They might incude:

- The no-name widget seller who's trying to generate immediate transactions;

- The affiliate who operates on razor-thin margins;

- The "AdSense arbitrageur" who subsists on the difference between PPC expenditures and what AdSense earnings;

- The established business that's looking for high-quality leads from contextual ads that can be developed into sales through traditional means.

Each advertiser has very different needs, which is why some advertisers claim that search works better for them while others report that contextual (content) ads have a better ROI.

I don't think we'll see a drop in AdSense rates across the board; rather, we're likely to witness a continuation of the trend toward advertisers paying what they think traffic is wortth in terms of ROI and/or cost in comparison to other media.

jim_w

2:00 am on May 20, 2005 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



I’m seeing what europeforvisitors is saying. I reduced the number of ads per page by about 1/3. Apparently my site is a contextual site that does produce a return on the net investment. By reducing the number of ads on my site, advertisers must bid higher to get seen. (remember the ‘gas wars’ of the 60’s in the US?)

If I generate traffic for advertisers, but they cannot convert that traffic into sales, but their competitors can, then that creates the illusion to the company that cannot convert, that contextual sites do not convert well, where as, by doing non-contextual ads only, you are seeing a higher volume of eyeballs on your ads, so of course that would make the probability of conversions higher. It’s statistics.

Some companies are not so worried about seeing a return in the short term, but branding for the long-term returns.

To break the Japanese market in the early 80’s Motorola actually loss up to 25% per pager unit, but, taking that loss and breaking into the market, allowed them to profit before really bad management took over. And now that the bad management is gone, their stock has gained a lot again in the last few months.

But that is just what I am seeing.

endomorph1

6:12 pm on May 21, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Thanks guys,

It really did not cross my mind that advertisiers might run a seperate campaign for context away from search.

This may well explain it all.

Good ol' WW, always comes up with the answers.