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Reasons for Adsense variations

some things to consider before letting panic set in

         

4eyes

7:29 pm on Sep 12, 2003 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



We all start fretting when we see dips in CTR, CPM etc

Lets start a list of reasons to 'chill' (and maybe a few to panic over)

Reasons your stats may vary:

  • Statistical Variation
  • Site Visitor behaviour changes due to external factors (holidays, seasonal changes etc)
  • Advertisers Budget Expiring
  • Changes to Google's adsense algo
  • Synchronisation delays in Google's reporting
  • Errors in Google's reporting
  • Site visitor 'desensitisation'
  • Changes you made to your site content
  • Adsense colour and format
  • Position of the Adsense display

    Got to be a whole load more - over to you guys

  • cornwall

    9:02 pm on Sep 12, 2003 (gmt 0)

    WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



    The way I see the "problem" is that I can theorise all I like, but have, in reality, very little hard evidence to go on...

    ...in other words Google only give me total impressions, total clicks and total revenue.

    I plot 7 day moving averages to take out the weekly cycle, and have graphs for 7 day CPC, CPM, impressions, CTR..

    ...I can theorise why one may go up, one may go down, or one remain the same.

    Like you I have a lot of sites, and a lot of clicks coming in. Regrettably I have no idea why my CTR is going down, my CPC rock solid. I do know why my impressions are going up :)

    Until Google give us more to go on, that is the way it will stay!

    buckworks

    9:48 pm on Sep 12, 2003 (gmt 0)

    WebmasterWorld Administrator 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



  • Ad inventory is spread thinner as more sites participate.
  • ThatAdamGuy

    10:12 pm on Sep 12, 2003 (gmt 0)

    10+ Year Member



    Now here's something to chomp on.

    I've been with AdSense for about two months now, and the one constant on my sites I've witnessed (dramatically!) is this:

    As impressions increase, revenues decrease... not just in terms of mild diminishing returns, but rather, for instance, impressions triple and revenues are one third of what they were before.

    Completely counter-intuitive, I agree! And I'm completely stumped about it. Any guesses as to what may be going on?

    Sharky

    10:16 pm on Sep 12, 2003 (gmt 0)

    10+ Year Member



    -- Advertisers opting-out of Adsense
    -- Advertisers significantly changing their Adwords bids for your keywords

    IanTurner

    10:53 pm on Sep 12, 2003 (gmt 0)

    WebmasterWorld Administrator 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



    This will be dependent on the number of sites running adsense and other factors - are you running alot of adsense ads on the same site or adsense across a number of sites?

    Bad content sites will generate less adsense revenue than well targetted sites.

    4eyes

    11:50 pm on Sep 12, 2003 (gmt 0)

    WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



    Cornwall, I agree.

    I was hoping that the list might help illustrate why we shouldn't try to draw conclusions based on the few variables that we ARE able to monitor.

    Supposedly, Google are going to provide better stats at some stage - drawing up a list now might help to reduce panic a little, and lay the foundation for future analysis when the stats get better.

    If we can identify the variables that are likely to be involved, we can hopefully avoid the wild algo speculation that used to surround Google updates.

    Sure, we can't fix these variables yet - but we can try to list the ones that would need 'fixing' before we can draw any conclusions.

    Vermont

    12:01 am on Sep 13, 2003 (gmt 0)

    10+ Year Member



    I think what you guys are missing is this:

    People see your ad.

    If your lucky and it appeals to them, they click it.

    If they like the site that the ad takes them to, they bookmark it.

    If they do not like the site, certainly they will not click on that ad again.

    Either way, the next time they visit your website there is very little chance they are going to click that ad again.

    Of course, this does not apply to every one of your site visitors but I believe it does apply to high percentage.

    DaveN

    12:04 am on Sep 13, 2003 (gmt 0)

    WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



    unique against CPC?

    4eyes

    12:29 am on Sep 13, 2003 (gmt 0)

    WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



    Vermont - that may be true, but is certainly not something we are 'missing'.

    It depends on the nature of your sites and the amount of traffic you get. If you have many thousands of pages with a wide range of ads, then it averages out. Also, some sites get few repeat visitors due to the information provided being of a 'one-off' nature.

    In any case, I believe we covered it on the list as 'statistical variation' and 'site visitor desensitisation'.

    Personally I do not believe it applies to a high percentage of my sites - yours may differ depending on your visitor profile.

    markus007

    6:27 am on Sep 13, 2003 (gmt 0)

    WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



    From what i can tell, google is trying out new algorithms to try and get better targetting on pages. Unforunately a lot of the time adsense can't figure out the most relevant term for pages leaving PSA ads. I have 10's of thousands of pages all on the same topic, and i get wild flucations every time google does some "experimenting". I even emailed them about it and they replied that there were many alogorithms in development and some would be tested...

    cyberprosper

    4:53 pm on Sep 13, 2003 (gmt 0)

    10+ Year Member



    I think my sites are getting more PSA ads than before. If PSA ads are counted as impressions, then that would be why the click-thru rate has dropped so much.