Lots of "invalid" clicks? Suggestions AnyOne?

Is it my click reporting software or invalid clicks?

[neiq]

Hello all,
I just did some marketing and got tons of veiws coming in today ( Not really but it went up to over 1000 pageviews from an average of 100/day last week). Well any way I've been using asrep for the past 2 months and it's always been pretty reliable (give or take 0-4 clicks per day not being accounted for) I decided to upgraded my version of asrep to the new 1.40 version last week. I logged in to that today and noticed 15 clicks Then i logged in to adsense and noticed 39 clicks were being reported. Which would be nice considering I've been averaging about $0.60 - $1.90 per click. However today i'm only at $11.61. Before you guys comment on this fact i'm very aware that sometimes revenue on adsense reports are lagged and take time to come up (sometimes even a day or 2),My concern is the fact that aresp logged 15 and adsense is reporting 39.

Now i noticed a substantial difference in clicks a few days ago and notified the google adsense team alerting them that My aresp stats and my adsense stats where not the same and were way off. They told me that "Clicks deemed by our monitoring system to be invalid will appear in your reports. However, since advertisers are not charged for clicks deemed to be invalid, publishers do not receive any revenue for these clicks. Consequently, you may on occasion notice clicks with no associated revenue. Please rest assured that your account is being properly credited for all valid clicks." So could it be that if those extra 22 clicks where valid my account should be at $23.00 - $74.00 (based on my past earnings per click)? So one could very well conclude that those 22 clicks are invalid and goolge is not crediting me for them.

My next worry is if in fact those 22 clicks are invalid google sees this and recognizes these as invaild then can't i be kicked out for invalid clicks? WHICH IS A SCARY THING!

OPINIONS SUGGESTIONS PLEASE!
THANKS,
Neiq

[jetteroheller]

Google knows much more than You.

For example a click atack on a certain ad distributed over some hundred sites.

It could be, that when Yellow widgets from red has suddenly a CTR 5 times the normal, they investigate and find a distributed click attack.

This clicks are deducted from all the publishers, 22 from You.

Nothing scary, only a sign, that Google does his job.

[PatrickDeese]

It could be that your marketing efforts attracted clicks from users in foreign countries where the geotargeted ads pay less per click.

[jomaxx]

Those realtime tracking scripts can miss clicks in some circumstances and overreport clicks in other circumstances. They cannot be expected to exactly match AdSense stats, so IMO there's no point losing sleep over occasional discrepancies like this.

I would put it down to a glitch, possibly related to whatever marketing you were doing. Keep an eye on it and worry if a pattern develops.

P.S. Patrick makes a good point. If you change the makeup of your site traffic significantly, you can expect big changes in your CTR and EPC. The traffic will probably not be as "pre-qualified", and your EPC will likely fall immediately, and continue falling as Smart Pricing kicks in. In other words, it's not easy to increase traffic tenfold overnight without diluting the quality of your traffic.

[jetteroheller]

For all the theories about, I could detect invalid clicks by my own tracking software, it would be very interesting if Neiq could try to find out what of his clicks are the 22 invalid.

Neiq, it would save us all much time, when You would make this test.

If You come to the conclusion, that all Your logs and Your tracking software are not enough to discover where the invalid clicks are, I would think it's a sensless investment of time to monitor.