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Why is decline in EPC and Income is ongoing?

         

trader

5:41 am on Mar 2, 2005 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



Our income and EPC (vs clicks/impressions) has been on ongoing decline for ages. Both ad impressions and clicks (and traffic) getting better on a regular basis month after month but EPC appears to be declining on a more or less regular basis (with occasional bright times. i.e. all of January, except last 4-days of Jan), but overall steady declines vs uptrending impressions and clicks.

As a real time example, Monday is often the best day of the week for my sites but February 28 was the worst Monday income and EPC day in ages. But our traffic was near record levels. Similar situation last Sat too with dismal EPC and revenue.

I have also noticed an all time high record number of PSA's. But had 'good' targeted ads on many sites for a long time but recently the same sites have far more PSA'S than normal.

After a noticable decline from Jan 28 thru about mid-Feb there was a fairly nice improvement for a while (about mid-month) but lately its back off the cliff again!

Anyone else notice this dubious long term (since 2003) and also short term trend (starting about Jan 28 2005), especially past several days? Any ideas why this happens? Has G possibly reduced its payout percentage? Does G perhaps have less advertisors which may be why there are so many PSA ads?

Could this be related to allowing 3 ad units on each page (and more and more of us doing that) vs the past where there was a limit of 1? Has that caused a double whammy of a reduced ad inventory and also caused lower bid prices, resulting in a significant increase in PSA's?

Of course, as a long time (well satisfied and very happy with G) publisher we are extremely worried about this trend. Nothing we do as far as making our websites better, good products/services, content targeting, getting improved traffic and good ad layouts/colors, seems to stop the ongoing decline. Any feedback would be appreciated.

Undead Hunter

7:25 pm on Mar 7, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



I tried the same thing - lowering the amount of ads I showed, from 10 to 6.

I noticed a slightly lower CTR, but also a lower CPM, just less money in general. I tested it twice, once in the later half of the day, once in the beginning.

It's *not* as straightforward as "only 6 ads will show/pay the most".

There are many factors:

1) Google has to rotate in new, lower paying ads in order to show them for their minimum amount, and to test them to see how they perform.

2) What if the 6 best performing ads were among the lowest paying ads? Some if not all would rotate "up" to the "top 6 spot".

3) All the bids are dynamic, aren't they? Just because someone agrees to bid $1, doesn't mean they'll pay a dollar - just $0.01 over the next highest bid, right?

It's a wildly complex system, when you think about it.

activeco

7:55 pm on Mar 7, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



1) Google has to rotate in new, lower paying ads in order to show them for their minimum amount, and to test them to see how they perform.

No, after a lot of work, I think I excluded ALL the other ads in this test.
Out of the six "premium" ads showing in Google search, the four of them were constantly picked-up on my page in the geo-area I historicaly got the most from.
I guess the other two didn't use contextual network.

OptiRex

9:01 pm on Mar 7, 2005 (gmt 0)



activeco

Do you not think that by restricting your ads to the same 6 ads as Google displays, that is what you are saying isn't it, then maybe your visitors see those ads as "stale" if they do not change?

Are you also sure that the Google shown ads are the highest paying? Does anyone know this?

I have new retail and regular trade visitors every day and I have noticed when ads do not change as often that click thrus do go down regardless of whether they are high or low value clicks.

I have reduced ad coverage on some sites to stop this dilution effect and it seems to be working.

Well, that's my theory since my EPC has gone up:-)

activeco

9:13 pm on Mar 7, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Are you also sure that the Google shown ads are the highest paying? Does anyone know this?

This was a competitive area. I had to remove more than
80 advertisers, they were just poping-up.
So, it is reasonable to believe the top was also the highest paying.
Besides, I don't believe that the highest paying advertiser could fall below certain high position regardless of his CTR.
Could any standard adwords user confirm this?
(Do not be reluctant to answer this :-).Please note that I already concluded this was NOT the way to go for a publisher.)

I have reduced ad coverage on some sites to stop this dilution effect and it seems to be working.

Well, that's my theory since my EPC has gone up:-)

That's why I started a new thread [webmasterworld.com...] .

Some people experience better overal EPC with higher CTR, while others think that traffic (impressions only) plays a more significant role.

incrediBILL

3:47 am on Mar 8, 2005 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



So, it is reasonable to believe the top was also the highest paying.

Actually, the highest paying per click may not be on the top, but the highest overall revenue generating may be on top.

FromRocky

4:11 am on Mar 8, 2005 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



Actually, the highest paying per click may not be on the top, but the highest overall revenue generating may be on top.

Correct. However, I would like to add one more thing. The highest overall generated revenue may not be necessarily resulted from the content sites but from the Google searches.

universetoday

6:06 am on Mar 8, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



I'm seeing a lot of extremely untargeted ads for many of my pages. And these seem to be coinciding with the lowest EPC rates I've ever endured.

icedowl

7:07 am on Mar 8, 2005 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



I'm seeing a lot of extremely untargeted ads for many of my pages. And these seem to be coinciding with the lowest EPC rates I've ever endured.

Same here. Either the ads are generic run-of-site type ads, or they're just simply on the wrong page (they'd fit great on a different page).

My gut feeling says that something is broken. Maybe not seriously broken, but broken nonetheless.

JuniorOptimizer

3:59 pm on Mar 8, 2005 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



It's hard to argue. I see tons of PSAs on what should be lucractive pages. Someone is asleep at the wheel at Google.

doingthistoolong

4:10 pm on Mar 8, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Well one more data point.. Just when you think it couldn't go lower, it goes lower. I think right now EPC is down 80% from February. And CTR is down as well, which is strange. I rearranged some ads on the most heavilly used pages - and the CTR is back up, but the $$$ is still pathetic. Overall earnings down at least 95%.

Targeting is also wildly lame.

For the record, this was a business orinented, relatively high keyword value site, traffic is consistent, content has been growing...

I have some significant new content to put up - which from past experience dramatically boost traffic for a couple of weeks - but frankly I'm holding back - at these rates the big boosts I usually get would be peanuts in $$$.

walrus

2:43 am on Mar 10, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



<whine>It is getting a little frustrating now,
I can compare any 2 weeks of late feb or march from this year to last and the dif in epc is very alarming.
</whine>

<speculative rant>

1)Seasonal? - why isnt it even remotely similar to last year same time

2)Visitor ad blindess? - many times last years clicks

3)Smart pricing? - From what we know not applied accross the board

4)Multiple ad blocks? - Ding' This is what i believe is a major contributing factor and would explain why travel industry, as EFV has mentined before, isnt effected like others.

</speculative rant>

doingthistoolong

2:56 am on Mar 10, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



I hate to even complain at this point, as I don't want to sound like a whiner... To sum up, the past three days have been horrible - although today was better despite a weaker day for traffic - go figure!

Well, after looking at the whole situation, I came to the conclusion that the biggest problem for me is the targeting. I mean just because an article mentions a mouse, shouldn't mean all the damn ads turn into ads for customized mousepad printing. To top it off, today, I am getting Ebay "GREAT DEALS ON OUTSOURCE" and "DOWNLOAD OUTSOURCE FREE NOW".

I joined an affiliate program today and have begun experimenting with it... We will see how it turns out. I think I have a better idea of what the conversions would be from my website than the googlebot does though.

I have not abandonned Adsense though - it's a great program and works very nicely on some of my pages. I think the ideal situation is to blend the affiliate ads and Adsense as it makes sense on a site. It also might reduce the adblindness problem.

Luckilly, this is not my primary source of income! :-)

incrediBILL

3:08 am on Mar 10, 2005 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



rocky rocky rocky....

The highest overall generated revenue may not be necessarily resulted from the content sites but from the Google searches.

I'm running an adwords campaign at this very moment and only 36% of my click thrus actually come from Google searches, the remaining 64% came from content sites, and the avg. cost per click is under $0.15. Read into that what you want, but at 50% profit share some content site gets about $0.08/click from me and it's 64% of my clicks.

[edited by: incrediBILL at 4:02 am (utc) on Mar. 10, 2005]

OptiRex

4:01 am on Mar 10, 2005 (gmt 0)



Hi incrediBILL

1. Once more I have to thank you for sharing this insight since I'm also pretty sure that only a few of us actually read and comprehend your posts.

2. Too many people keep running here for quick fixes when, possibly, or more likely probably, they have not a clue what they are doing to start off with!

walrus

No need to be sarcastic or belligerent - I know where you're coming from however where else can many publishers turn to when they do not know/understand what is happening to their sites/business?

For anyone who does not understand this - Read #2 above.

If you've re-read it and still do not understand, then re-read it again.

incrediBILL

4:10 am on Mar 10, 2005 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



I see tons of PSAs on what should be lucractive pages

I have the problem on about 30% of my site and google says it's because my site isn't "family friendly".

You tell me when the word "nude" in decribing art isn't "family friendly" and I'll show you a company in Mountain View that has been brainwashed by the PAX channel.

walrus

6:01 am on Mar 10, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



<No need to be sarcastic or belligerent>

Sorry if it comes across that way, I was'nt being either, i hope everyone does'nt assumes that.

I read every post in every thread i respond in at least once before i post . I reread efv and inredibills , yours or any others that i usually find insightful, and that was a light-hearted whine/specultaive rant by no means meanspirited.
However,I and my clients respectfully regret any discomfort or inconvenience this may have caused any of the readers of this forum and hereby undertake never to repeat said offence again.
Sorry, I think i got a bad batch of Prozac, feeling a little nutty lateley, though it might just be stress.

trader

6:21 am on Mar 10, 2005 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



In addition to the Supply and Demand issues which I am sure is a huge factor, there are also 2 other major issues to explain EPC declines, sometimes not so good ad targeting and low paying keywords (replacing your old well paying keywords), which I can not go into detail on right now but may do so very soon. Stay tuned for this amazing discovery, you will be shocked to hear it.

walrus

9:25 am on Mar 10, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



<sometimes not so good ad targeting and low paying keywords (replacing your old well paying keywords)>

Thats a good point too.

Have to stay focused on content and traffic, Adsense is a roller coaster but it was a pretty fun ride my first year.

OptiRex

12:31 pm on Mar 10, 2005 (gmt 0)



Sorry, I think i got a bad batch of Prozac, feeling a little nutty lateley, though it might just be stress.

I know how you feel walrus, I usually preview my messages at least a dozen times to temper down my anger or frustration!

Heavens knows how EFV finds the time to post as much as he does?

Stay tuned for this amazing discovery, you will be shocked to hear it.

Any time scale on this trader when all will be revealed?

One thing I have noticed in this past week is that my EPC in the first 12 hours of the day are noticeably higher, some 50%, than in the second 12 hours.

This suggests to me that maybe Europe but almost certainly the USA is paying a lot less for ads.

Anyone else seen this?

doingthistoolong

1:59 pm on Mar 10, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



About 25% of my traffic is Europe, and yes, definitely Europe is about 50% of the US in terms of EPC.

I am sure the targeting there is even worse than here, probably mouse traps instead of mouse pads.

Now I am also getting ads for "talking watches" all over the place, as well as the "BIG DEALS ON OUTSOURCE - FREE DOWNLOAD".

doingthistoolong

2:04 pm on Mar 10, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



BTW - I am surprised there has been no more discussion around the "Keyword Fraud" that came up in early February. This would explain a lot of what is happening, the collapse in prices of certain keywords.

I may be new to adsense, but not to the way computing systems work, and generally you would expect things like market pressure, more ad blocks, etc. to have a gradual effect. My earnings collapse has been a step function - actually in two steps, with some wiggle up and down after the steps occurred. Looks like a switch was thrown.

EFV says smartpricing - I guess that could be, I know my site has very strong demographics, so it annoys me that the targeting is so utterly lame.

BTW, I am reducing my Adwords units by 50% across the board and trying some affiliate programs that seem far more targetted. Frankly at this point I have nothing to lose!

Sorry for ranting again!

walrus

5:03 pm on Mar 10, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Thanks OptiRex,
I've notices higher epcs in the morn as well
and they always level off later in the day.

doingthistoolong

11:46 pm on Mar 10, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Actually today the EPC is back up 3X the march averages - but CTR is still down - the targeting is just totally pathetic. Anyone else see just horrendous targeting since March 1 or so?

trader

12:25 am on Mar 11, 2005 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



...Any time scale on this trader when all will be revealed?

My amazing discovery should be released in this forum some time tonight. Stay tuned.

trader

2:35 am on Mar 11, 2005 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



Sorry, the amazing reasons I discovered for epc and income reductions news has been rescheduled for tomorrow. It will positively shock you when you hear about it!

doingthistoolong

2:40 am on Mar 11, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



I fear the Google Gag-squad may have gotten to Trader! :)

Can't wait to hear this, my theory remains that it is related to the keyword fraud thing...

activeco

11:35 am on Mar 13, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Sorry, the amazing reasons I discovered for epc and income reductions news has been rescheduled for tomorrow. It will positively shock you when you hear about it!

WOW
;-)

doingthistoolong

2:07 pm on Mar 13, 2005 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Actually I have a new theory - bad keyword buying.... If there are a lot of new adwords customers, maybe they are just doing a lot of stupid things. Remember only a fraction of the people in Adwords and Adsense probably come to a place like this for advice.

I have a page about Amtrak - it now gets Greyhound training ads. Well I don't think it's poor targeting at all anymore. It's user stupidity. When you buy adwords keywords you can let Adwords "suggest" additional keywords to buy. So the dog trainer gets a list of 300 keywords and says, I'll take them ALL.... So AMTRAK, etc... end up targeting dog training ads.

trader

4:05 am on Mar 14, 2005 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



Apologize over the delay. I spent hrs working on a very long post about my recently discovered truly amazing secrets for the ongoing EPC and Income declines I said I would write about, including 2 incredibly amazing secrets known to very few, having nothing to do with click-fraud or anything illegal (as someone here wrongly guessed), and other issues commonly discussed here.

However, after thinking about it and the fact is I really enjoy getting a nice check each month from G (even though my EPC is also down like so many others here, with many reportedly down from 30% to 90%).

G probably would not learn my acct name but there is always that possibility (even if they knew they likely would not be too angry at me anyway), but who knows that for sure! My wife also warned me strongly not to reveal my secret information.

Therefore, due to discretion being better than valor at this time all this will remain a secret. However, I may announce it all later under the right circumstances, and have saved my detailed post for possible posting at some other time. Sorry for being unable to do this.

europeforvisitors

4:35 am on Mar 14, 2005 (gmt 0)



Trader: Sounds like a great topic for a $50 e-book. :-)
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