A list of factors to identify potential adsense profitability

your comments, additions, deletions appreciated

[Algebrator]

As a newbie to adsense, I am trying to categorize factors that would identify a profitable niche. Could more experienced members try to assign the weight to each one below (0 – not relevant .. 5 – most relevant) and possibly add some more? Some of the factors are overlapping and probably not all are needed. I am starting of with a list that is (for most part) numerically quantifiable.

Top keyword value (via Overture tool)
Top keywords value (via Google adwords account)
Number of searches (via Overture tool)
Number of displayed adwords
Number of BLs to top 10 Google SERP results (via yahoo linkdomain)
PR of Google top 10 SERPs
Total number or results in google
Overall kwd “difficulty level” (via s*****guild difficulty checker)
Correct mapping of your site contents to displayed ads (via d******point adsense sandbox)

(This need not turn into one of those “PR is useless” discussions)

[jetteroheller]

In the time, You do all this resarch,
You could wirte some 100 pages making real money.

[AZEvil]

Top keyword value (via Overture tool)

I have seen keywords with $30 bids in Overture average a payout of $0.10. Granted, those might not be the exact keywords that Google decided to target, but you would figure that the subject area would yield substantially more than $0.10.

Top keywords value (via Google adwords account)

Same as above with Overture...But $45.00 keywords paying $0.10 averages.

Number of searches (via Overture tool)

Cannot see any correlation here because I have sites on terms rarely searched for that make alot of money and sites that have huge numbers of search that make alot of money...and some of each that make very little money.

Number of displayed adwords

More adwords and more competition does not mean that a subject will pay well. If conversion rates are low for the product/item, the advertiser cannot afford to pay alot for a click.

Number of BLs to top 10 Google SERP results (via yahoo linkdomain)

I have a site that isn't even in the SERPs and has no backlinks that has an average CPM of over $500. I also have a site that has a ton of backlinks and one from 6 of the top 10 SERP results. The average CPM of that site is under $50 right now. The topic of both sites should pay out at about the same CPM as their CTR are about the same. My only observation on this one would be that it could hurt your payout, but I wouldn't think that is true.

PR of Google top 10 SERPs

Same as above example. Site with CPM of over $500 has PR0, other site has PR5.

Total number or results in google

This is a tough one to look at because Google might be targeting a slightly different word/phrase than what you would search for as a test.

I'm sure others have had similar and different situations. I don't stand by my experiences and observations as being the only truth.

[Algebrator]

AZEvil,

Basically you are saying that none of these are good indicators. I am not disputing that, as I don't have any of my own experience yet. Do you have any of your own that you would like to share?

[AZEvil]

I'm just saying that based on my experience, none of these appear to be valid indicators...but it doesn't mean that there isn't a time or place where any of them would be applied.

[doingthistoolong]

I totally agree with jetteroheller...

These are all second order effects, if the content is not there.

The bottom line is having content associated with keywords that bring high value advertising, absolutely no different than print, TV or radio. This is why superbowl ads cost $2m for 30 seconds.

[martingale]

Maybe think of it like this: If these indicators are positive you might succeed, or you might not. If these indicators are negative you are probably not going to succeed.

It's useful to have some guide like this. I am building my current site because it gives me a chance to exercise a skill set that has long been dormant. I am a software developer, but I was educated as a professional writer. Building my site gives me a chance to make use of my writing skills in my spare time.

In my case, I picked a topic I knew something about and started building. Once this site is working well I will move on to another topic. As a trained professional writer I feel I could/should be able to write on ANY topic: do some research, write what I learn. The "professional" part of that means being able to do a good job of writing even if I'm personally not interested in the topic.

Now, how do I go about picking my topics? That's what this poster is getting at. Unquestionably once you have picked your topic you need to produce high quality content. Whether you can do that or not depends on you.

I would add one more thing: Look around at what sites exist already. If there is a very popular one that is doing exactly what you propose to do that is bad. Like in any business you have to find a way to differentiate yourself from the competition, carve out your own special niche.

[jetteroheller]

[ These are all second order effects, if the content is not there. ]

I started 2002 to sell software to create real estate web sites just for 0,20 EUR per visitor from a seach engine.

Seemed to be a great business. One realtor in a big city had usual 2000..4000 visitors a month.

March 2004, Google changed completely punishing good sites and puting only the last crap at the top. I tested this with "important city name, real property". All the other search engines with 0..1 spam results in the first 5, Google with 4 spam results.

I resarched AdWords. I thought it could save my business to buy visitors with 10 Cent average and to sell them with 20 Cent, but I had to find out, that
"important big city, condominium" was at 2,50 EUR average, 4,50 EUR peak.

Two weeks ago, I put AdSense on a web site, where I list all the offers from my realtors.

Big surprise, EPC far below average.
I have no idea how there can be so cheap ads.

[Algebrator]

Martingale, thank you for clarifying my intent. I understand that (to a certain extent) these are all secondary factors.
I just wanted to know, given a choice of topics, what would be a good one to concentrate on. For example, I could start writing about a history of casinos and never get a single click, given the competitiveness of the term. I understand that contents is important, but I also don't want to bang your head against the wall either.
The gist I am getting from most of the replies is that these indicators are way too unreliable (and apparently there aren't any others), and that you basically have to try any given topic and see for yourself if it works or not.

[DrGUID]

Now that we're allowed channels I've been able to split the content I have written into about a dozen different subject areas. Just lately I've been crunching the numbers to see if it's worth having a major expansion of web presence into more profitable advertising areas.

Although I am a writer in the field of blue widgets, if writing about red widgets allows me to give up the day job then I'll write about those instead.

I've been really surprised that there are one or two areas that are a lot more lucrative than I realised from just playing around in the Adwords sandbox/Overture bid suggestion tool.

A significant percentage of my adsense revenue is generated from just 1 page about a certain widget on one of my websites.

From what I can tell I do well on this subject because I have written original content about a popular widget. More importantly, most of the online retailers of the widget have websites that just have very basic content about the widget (many just repeating the widget manufacturer's standard data sheet).

BTW, the widget I'm writing about is not remotely related to casinos, loans, pr0n or other supposedly lucrative subjects.

Basically it seems that to make good money you need:

• A reasonable amount of site visitors
  
• A reasonably high paying subject
  
• A good click through rate
  
• Awareness of new widgets/seasonal variation of the popularity of widgets