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Predictable Earning

I Know how the day will end

     
1:09 pm on Feb 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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All these threads on "my earnings have dropped" are exactly what I'm not seeing.

For the last 5 months, my earnings have been so predictable. Monday - Friday earnings will be within a close percentage of last week. Saturday - Sunday totally predictable.

I sometimes wonder if my earnings have already been decided, and that is the target each day.

I've been building content to be proud of, changing ad formats and location, my traffic is climbing realy nice. All this effort and my earnings are like the Rock of Gibralter.

Yes, I am thankfull. A little good excitement would be nice.

2:28 pm on Feb 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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Yes, I am thankfull. A little good excitement would be nice.

Lol, maybe you'd like to join us and have your revenue drop a few percentage points below the norm?:)

2:42 pm on Feb 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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I agree with what you are saying....let's keep it more positive and solution oriented. No on likes "waaaa....me too...sniff sniff :(" threads.

Like rfung, I have noticed a significant drop in revenue, but an increase in page views and click throughs. (side note....ours was rock solid and predictible as well :).Started checking things out... I looked on the adwords thread to see if something was brewing on the other side of the camp. There really is nothing to be done by the adsense publishers since we only have control over placement and promotion.

So, what can we do.....GET BUSY! We are not trees! We can diversify and find other income sources. What can people who have not experienced this decline do? Take notice and don't assume it can't happen to you :)

Cheers!

3:46 pm on Feb 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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I've been building content to be proud of, changing ad formats and location, my traffic is climbing realy nice. All this effort and my earnings are like the Rock of Gibralter.

Do you have an editorially diverse site? If so, that may be a factor. It's certainly worked for me. If all the ads for "Elbonian kayak cruising" or "Shelbyville hotels" went away tomorrow, I'd still be getting clicks and revenues for "Slobovian railroad passes" and "Springfield holiday cottages." My revenues might drop, but not by as much as if all of my pages were about "Elbonian kayak cruising" or "Shelbyville hotels."

10:57 pm on Feb 9, 2005 (gmt 0)

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Gee I thought this thread was going to be about predicting future daily earnings. I discovered early on that whatever our earnings are at 1:15p they exactly double (+/- 2%) at the close of the day, except on Friday. Anyone else find similar or am I the only one who is this anal retentive in here? :)
Tip: You can check your reports and see them change almost every 15 minutes if you either change the time period for the report or log out and log back in, or some combo of the above.
4:05 am on Feb 10, 2005 (gmt 0)

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Ahah, mike, I posted a thread not too long ago about that - although not as anally rententive, I tend to look at my earnings around noon , and expect that the day's revenues will be about double that.
6:39 am on Feb 11, 2005 (gmt 0)

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I tend to look at my earnings around noon , and expect that the day's revenues will be about double that.

I'm never able to accurately predict earnings - the best I can hope for is to have some idea if it's going to be a good day, or a bad day judging on the stats so far.

I'm 8 hours ahead of Google time zone, so I can see the first few clicks of the day when I'm trying to wake up. Often the price per click starts off low just after midnight Google time, and builds up during the day. My only constant is the ctr.

9:59 pm on Feb 14, 2005 (gmt 0)

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I am in Googles time zone and find that stats update about every 15 minutes as well, They always start out as a higher cpc in the morning and slowly decrease throughout the day. Some people say their earnings can show up days later, but I have never experienced it. By 1:00am I know for sure what my previous days earnings are and they have never increased/decreased after this time.

I can usually guess by the end of the day ( depending on the day) about how much it will be by 1:00pm in the afternoon.

10:09 pm on Feb 14, 2005 (gmt 0)

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I like uncertainty, it's my hobby.

Adsense suits me well :)

2:58 pm on Feb 16, 2005 (gmt 0)

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Edge,
I have experienced the same exactness that you seem to have with your adsense numbers. You almost start to believe there is some sort of prorating going on.

For a while my numbers in every sense were very perdictable. But I'm here to tell you that if your numbers are consistant then use this time to prepare for when they are not. IMHO

More power to you.

3:19 pm on Feb 16, 2005 (gmt 0)

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In fact this 'theory'is something that we have observed day after day over the past few months . After two hours from the daily reset we can predict the outcome within a very close margin .Coincidence?
4:11 pm on Feb 16, 2005 (gmt 0)

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In fact this 'theory'is something that we have observed day after day over the past few months . After two hours from the daily reset we can predict the outcome within a very close margin .Coincidence?

Probably. Call it "statistical momentum." I've observed the same phenomenon with daily search referrals and traffic. I can predict with near-certainty what my top 10 pages will be on any given day, for example, and I know that on any given weekday pages a, b, c, d, and e will have roughly X hundred age views each. (The "yield management" software used by airlines, hotel companies, and cruise lines exploits the same statistical phenomenon to set prices based on projected occupancy rates.)

4:17 pm on Feb 16, 2005 (gmt 0)

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Yeah, I can also predict the daily earnings from Noon numbers. I get usually 3X of noon earnings. My visitors are busy in the afternoon and evening.