Word Value Drop

[NJLawman]

I'm not trying to start the usual "EPC up," "EPC down" post, but I did have a question.

On my entire site I had one high value word page. At one point it was getting as much as $20. per click. Then, it sank to maybe $5. or $6. per click.

Now it's down to pennies. However, the ads appearing are the same as they were in the beginning.

Any thoughts?

[alika]

The ads may appear the same - indicating that the advertiser is still using Adwords -- but they may be bidding so much less than what they used to. Maybe because they can get the same exposure for a much smaller amount. Or they've learned their lesson not to bid so much (don't these advertisers know that they should never bid low?) :o)

[Macro]

Sign up for an adwords account and see how much the word costs. If it has indeed dropped then you'll know for sure.

[Never_again]

Could it also be the effect of "smart pricing" where Google estimates the value of clicks and adjusting prices on an ongoing basis?

Do a Google search on Google and smart pricing for more information.

[alika]

Smart pricing -- well, we really don't know how this concept really works, but so easy to just attribute everything to it. If it is true that this is the reason for it, my my my, what a mighty drop from $20 to pennies.

[JuniorOptimizer]

Sounds like "dumb pricing" from the webmaster's standpoint ;)

[BennyBlanco]

I have had a theory for a while that clicks from the same user multiple times are not automatically called "fraudulent" or "invalid" but rather are credited. However, payout is dropped with the more frequency of clicks by the same user.

If your site has a user base that is built of repeat visitors for the most part, it is highly likely that many of the clicks come from the same users over time. I have seen similar experiences as you describe and this is the best theory I have come up with. It could be a part of the smart pricing, or not. But I have never thought it was plausible for G to track invalid clicks by user alone. This reduction in payout would be a solution to that issue for them without having to ban every publisher who has a loyal user base.

Just my opinion, anyone see this type of pattern?

[ken_b]

Quite possibly there were advertizers farther down the line that were bidding up the price.

They withdraw or lower their bids and the whole pile drops down.