Forum Moderators: martinibuster
I propose that, by and large, webmasters here are seeing increased earnings. That could be the holiday season effect (though I can't see how Christmas would cause increases in clickthroughs for sites specialising in servers, summer clothes (in Europe/USA), various service industries from data recovery to video mastering etc). Despite some subjects being obvious candidates for a drop in clickthroughs/sales in December we are strangely devoid of the complaint threads.
Elsewhere, there seem to be serious concerns about clickfraud, organised clickfraud, and fraudsters using malware to compromise machines around the world to commit little bits of undetectable click fraud for them (perhaps to topple a competitor advertiser). Those threads have become the new "my EPC has dropped in the last five minutes".
The extent of this clickfraud is not something you would be aware of. If unknown machines around the world are automatically clicking one ad each on your site - making a total of tens or hundreds of ads a day - you'll notice nothing except .... what? And have you noticed it? (I know some of you track your performance very carefully using a variety of sophisticated statistical tools)
Shortz
The extent of this clickfraud is not something you would be aware of. If unknown machines around the world are automatically clicking one ad each on your site - making a total of tens or hundreds of ads a day - you'll notice nothing except .... what? And have you noticed it?
You bet I've noticed it--because the dolt who presumably targeted an advertiser on my site was too stupid to hide his or her tracks. On Wednesday and Thursday of this week, my Google AdSense report showed several thousand more clicks than usual. The anomaly was pretty glaring (and if I noticed it, you can bet that Google did, too, even before I pointed it out to them!).
As for EPC, I don't track EPC, but I do track CPM, and it's down a bit this month (or was before the clicks went wild) to exactly one penny less than my CPM for December, 2003. That isn't surprising, though, since my topic is calendar-sensitive. I'm actually surprised that CPM and revenues have held up as well as they have done: AdSense revenues have slipped less than affiliate bookings. And based on last year's experience, I expect them to increase in January, when people start thinking about vacations in the new year. (My AdSense CPM doubled in January of 2004; of course, that was before "smart pricing" discounts for advertisers were introduced.)
AdSense revenues have slipped less than affiliate bookings.
My Adsense bucks have noticeably slipped, which I assumed was because most folks have already made arrangements for the holidays (November was great), and advertisers cut their spend. Surprisingly, affiliate bookings are holding more than their own, much of it last minute stuff.
So, basically, situation normal: Almost impossible to predict what's what, or to compare results between sites. I just go with the flow.
And yep, am also looking forward to Jan & Feb.
I'm new to Adsense (since Nov) and this is my 1st time post. Nov was excellent in terms of CPM but have seen a drastic decline in Dec. -30%
Does Jan & Feb typically pick up or will advertisers take a short break to let the Holidays dissipate a little.
I don't get all in a tither over it anymore. I have seen the same number of clicks produce half or double the average on different days.
Adsense income is supplemental. I try not to count on it, and I try to reinvest it back into things that can produce a more stable cash flow. But then again, I am not a member fo the FedEx club.
WBF
Zipit, that's the kind of unusual metrics/activity I'm looking to discuss. Can you elaborate on period, small/large sample etc?
I hope I haven't been too specific or against TOS by stating this information.
As it turns out (by way of looking at channel data relating to areas of my site targeting different keywords) one of my keywords has had a significant drop in CPM, the others only minor. I would assume that if my payout rate from Adsense had changed it would be across the board and not for just one keyword. Right now I have to assume that the CPM change I have noticed is seasonal variation or.. some big Adwords advertiser opting out of AdSense or... some big Adwords advertisers no longer advertising with Adwords.
We have been using AdSense since June 2003 and this December has been our best month yet. November saw a sharp drop in both CPM and EPC due to a number of major advertisers dropping campaigns. During the last week of November we saw them come back in. Our site is not shopping or retail in nature. The Christmas holiday season has little effect on us either positively or negatively, although December and January are historically our biggest month in terms of page views (it is the nature of our clients business cycle).
Some stats:
December 1st-9th CPM up 33% over average daily CPM for year-to-date 2004
December 1st-9th CPM up 69% over average daily CPM for November 2004
December 1st-9th CPM up 164% over the same period in 2003
December 1st-9th EPC up 17.5% over average daily EPC for year-to-date 2004
December 1st-9th EPC up 72% over average daily EPC for November 2004
December 1st-9th EPC up 54% over the same period in 2003
Comparing this December to last December (which was my first full month in the program, though I didn't have as many pages with AdSense code on them then), my EPC is lower, which I expected, since that was pre-smart pricing. But total clicks are almost double and total earnings are more than 50% up. If the month follows the same track as last December did, this will be one of my better months in the program.
Coincidentially, I dropped by WW today (after several months of absence), saw your message and checked my Adsense stats (hadn't checked them in months).
EPC etc has been stable for the last 6 months, but at a level which even if multiplied by x100 could not make it viable economically (i.e. justify investment of time and money to create more traffic)
The reason for drop may be the holiday season. Mine is a job site in India. I would line to know from other webmasters, how their jobsites are doing. I am thinking whether this drop is due to year end? Shall we see some increase in CPM in the new year?
I think it was too good to be true at first, and now the publishers are not putting the pricey ads in adsense rotation. Fair enough, if it doesn't convert it's not worth it.
Some publishers have had dramatic drops in EPC, others have had modest drops, some have remained stable, and some are doing better than ever. IMHO, it's always a mistake to make general assumptions based on a limited sample (e.g., your own personal experience).
The new URL Channels has clearly showed me, what I have susptected, but not yet proved. Two of my site's core areas are bad for my AdSence earnings. Sad, but it won't stop me from publishing new stuff in them.
I'll just have to keep adding stuff to the more commercially volatile areas as well.
