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But invalid clicks is a different matter altogether and may have a weaker linkage with the SERPs results (a site generating invalid clicks may be clean SERPs-wise).
What's to stop someone at G after Adesense drops a site from saying, "I'm going to make that site dissapear from our SERPs"?
It's pretty obvious that the search and AdSense teams are operating in parallel universes. If they were working together closely, AdSense would have been launched with much tighter quality controls (including a requirement that additional sites be approved before being allowed to run the AdSense code).
We've all heard stories of sites being kicked off, even though Google admitted that they (the publisher) were not the source of fraudulent clicks. (How often this happens, I don't know.) Anyway, the rumors would fly about how if you sign up for Adsense and you get booted off (for any reason) then you'd also risk your search engine ranking. Such a thing could be the death knell for many sites. Who wants to risk that? Better to stay away from Adsense completely if that were the way things were going to be.
I know I would have probably never signed up for Adsense if such a risk existed. The income from Adsense is very nice, but if I were to be at risk for dropping off the search engine radar because I signed up with Adsense, well, forget it. It would not be worth the hassle or worry.
Scrapers and other made-for-AdSense sites are a different issue. It would be perfectly reasonable for Google's search team to take a hard look at any site that the AdSense team has identified as spam--or even to use "booted by AdSense" as a negative scoring factor in the ranking algorithm.
It's unlikely that Google would use fraudulent clicks as a reason to drop a site's pages from search.
Not being a google employee i am unsure as to how you are so sure about what exactly will go on with google all the time. Last I checked Google did what they wanted in terms of their products, and I would imagine they would continue to do so.
I think they don't care that much. With 4 billion pages to look after life's too short.
Be careful about being too quick with this line of thinking.
In actuality, once there are "too many" pages to look after, people start to limit their attention to the outliers. They aren't even aware that their perspective has been skewed. In science it is the root cause of something called sample bias.
I would not be at all surprised if the humans that are Google started sharing concerns between SE and AdSense, and that in the beginning such sharing was highly biased. It's human nature. Someday the AdSense expertise will flow across to the SE side and the SE people will start to understand minutia about AdSense vs. SE details, but not for a while.