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sudden drop in EPC

sad

         

newbies

2:22 am on Aug 27, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Since Aug. 20, my EPC has dropped 40%. About three weeks ago I doubled my CTR by changing the placement of adsense and have since enjoyed a double increase in earning. However, G seems not happy about this and decided to pay me the usually amount by cutting my EPC. It is really sad that you have totally no control over this. Adsense ads displayed on my site are quite diverse, I don't think the drop in EPC was due to some advertisers suddenly dropped adword.

europeforvisitors

2:33 am on Aug 27, 2004 (gmt 0)



Here's a possibility to try on for size:

The increase in CTR might have resulted in lower conversion rates, depending on what you did with the ad and page layout. If that were the case, advertisers presumably would be getting higher "smart pricing" discounts, which would mean lower earnings per click.

howiejs

2:59 am on Aug 27, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



"The increase in CTR might have resulted in lower conversion rates"

Everyone says this - but I just can't "buy it" -- google does not have enough conversion tracking on advertiser sites to price the ads this way

it has to be based on the refer / keywords of the traffic / time spent before back button . . .

europeforvisitors

3:11 am on Aug 27, 2004 (gmt 0)



it has to be based on the refer / keywords of the traffic / time spent before back button . . .

Advertisers can define "conversion" pretty broadly. A conversion doesn't have to be a sale in GoogleSpeak: It can be a "business action" such as an inquiry, a newsletter subscription, the number of pages read, or (unless I'm mistaken) a user's time on the site before hitting the back button.

asp4bunnies

3:12 am on Aug 27, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Google can definitely see the time spent on the advertisers' site. A quick back button can plummet your smart pricing.

One thing publishers forget is that you should not be tricking your visitors into clicking on your ads (i.e. by blending it into content a little too well).

That will only hurt you when people Back button out of the advertisers site really quickly.

Rather you should lay out the ad in a clear manner, so those who are potentially interested will see it and visit the advertiser, knowing exactly what they are clicking on. Then the advertiser gets quality traffic, your smart pricing stays high (even if you are getting less clicks for it, you're getting more interested clicks), Adsense's system works and we all win.

howiejs

5:08 am on Aug 27, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



"conversion can be . . . "business action" such as an inquiry, a newsletter subscription, the number of pages read" . . .

but again unless EVERY advertiser is running the google site tracker - google would not see the "end result" of these business actions

so smart pricing has to be something else!

newbies

5:11 am on Aug 27, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



asp4bunnies, I agree with you.

But how can G on one hand encourages us to tweak ads layout and bg color to get more clicks, on the other hand, once we did it, G cut our EPC.

Jenstar

5:26 am on Aug 27, 2004 (gmt 0)

newbies

5:37 am on Aug 27, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Have you added URLs to your filter list lately?

I have not added new url filter recently.

Actually, three days after the drop, I got an email from G asking me to remove adsense ads label (Related links) or to use "Sponsored Links" instead. I just removed the label and reported to G about the change. G sent me an email again expressing thanks for the compliance.

europeforvisitors

5:44 am on Aug 27, 2004 (gmt 0)



but again unless EVERY advertiser is running the google site tracker - google would not see the "end result" of these business actions

Short answer: Averages.

Longer answer: Google's smart-pricing algorithm is probably based on any number of factors, including what it is able to track about users' behavior after clicking through from a site.

Roomy

6:30 am on Aug 27, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Have you added URLs to your filter list lately?

We have been advised in previous threads to remove most of the filter urls in search of profitability.

[webmasterworld.com...]

There is it seems a dichotomy between removing poor ads with high back button potential and retaining those same ads because they have good EPC.

As mentioned before In the thread above I have removed all my filter urls. I can somewhat confusingly report NO change in CPM over about a week, to shorter timescale possibly?

I would suggest that the reason for lack of change in CPM could be due to the conversion rate dropping because the ad landing pages are poor. Whilst my cpc has risen because the poor ads are paying better, creating some form of equilibrium.

It seems we simply do not have enough control over the displayed ads they are either on or off. I think a really good case all round is building for Keyword filtering.

Roomy

7:58 am on Aug 27, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Some good news in the pipeline possibly?

[webmasterworld.com...]

newbies

1:06 am on Aug 28, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



From my channel data, I found my EPC dropping occured globally to all my channel, which can not be explained by either theory.

I said I recently changed the placement of ads (blending into my pages) on some pages resulting in doubled CTR and earning. you may say that this change leads to low conversion because users may be misleaded to click an ad. I agree, and G may lower the EPC for that channel. However, many other channels without such layout change were also influenced by the EPC cut.

Regarding URL filtering, I do have some urls filtered out long time ago because they are totally mistargetted ads.

So I still could not figure out why G suddenly cut my EPC.

markus007

5:57 am on Aug 28, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



I've talked to 5 other publishers doing 4 figures a day and most of us have been hit with a 20-50% decrease in epc since the 16th. Something has changed in a big way.

novice

11:50 am on Aug 28, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



"google does not have enough conversion tracking on advertiser sites to price the ads this way"

Even if only 1 in 20 advertisers use conversion tracking, it still gives Google an idea of how 5% of the traffic is doing.

Think of it in the way that most polls work. Less than 1% of the population is polled, yet they get a fairly accurate prediction of what the results of the election would be.

I think that Google uses a lot of ways to determine their smart pricing, (back button, time on site..), but conversion is probably their biggest.

That seems the be the number one thing advertisers want.

markus007

1:36 pm on Aug 28, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



"That seems the be the number one thing advertisers want. "

I disagree with that, in my area all the big players are fighting for market share and spend large amounts of cash to get it. I don't think its safe to say that webmasterworld spammers/marketers are representitive of the kind of people that spend the most on adwords.

novice

2:34 pm on Aug 28, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



"I don't think its safe to say that webmasterworld spammers/marketers are representitive of the kind of people that spend the most on adwords."

WebMasterWorld members aside, A search on Google for most popular searches will show that most advertisers are trying to get clicks to have visitors buy, subscribe or sign-up for something.

Realize that I was using the term "conversion rate" in a broad sense.

However I do agree with you that there are many webmasters that use adwords to generate hits and build market share as you stated.

howiejs

2:46 pm on Aug 28, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



So if they really are looking into the conversion data that they can collect --- is the smart pricing level per page or per site? If they "see" one specific ad not convert ... . does it wack the other pages as the value of the site "theme" is adjusted?

markus007

3:12 pm on Aug 28, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



There is no way for google to collect conversion data, what they can use is data from your site. If you get 10,000 clicks a month and 50% of the time the user clicked the back button and then visited another page with a google ad google can tell your traffic is "worthless". Also google can use all the toolbar data to....

howiejs

3:21 pm on Aug 28, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



Google actually does have conversion data
If you are not familiar with what adword advertisers can use (its free)

[adwords.google.com...]

Google has the data and can "look" at refers and actions which could drive smart pricing

CherryHintonBlue

7:30 pm on Aug 28, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



markus007, add one more publisher doing 4 figures a day which has been hit with a 20-50% decrease in epc since the 16th...

PatrickDeese

7:48 pm on Aug 28, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



> Since Aug. 20

I have been in adsense since the beginning - and in general I seem to see lower earnings towards the end of each month - I think because advertiser's budgets are tapping out.

Also remember that Google recently had a "come back to content" discount offer for Adwords advertisers who weren't advertising on content sites.

This, I believe created a larger pool of higher paying advertisers - many - myself included - stopped their content campaigns after a short while.

Looking at the trends for my sites - there's almost always been lower EPC during the last week of each month.

cyanweb

1:46 pm on Aug 31, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Yes - end of month is usually lower - but we too have been hit with downward flux in earnings of late... they obviously tweaked something... and raising the bar for "effective conversion and smart pricing" could be the case... it takes longer now for stats to update (3-4 hours longer than cut of hour last month) suggesting more intense log processing is going on? (either that or ton's of new bloggers on the program by other posts)

The recently poor showing of targeting and even blank ad space (where was full of highly relevant ads for months) seems to possibly point toward internal / core changes going on...?

Anyhow that's my Google speculating for this month - we are all still having fun though yes? -O>

europeforvisitors

2:42 pm on Aug 31, 2004 (gmt 0)



My EPC has bounced up and down quite a bit from day to day, with some very high days early in the month and some very high days in the last week.

Sometimes I see a jump at the very end of the month. (Maybe because some advertisers are bidding higher to use up their monthly budgets?)