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Changes in Google Click Evaluation

Google's Way to Rate a Click

     
9:41 am on Apr 24, 2004 (gmt 0)

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Now i have a question that may have been discussed many a times here, but no better answer as to how google team evaluates a click.

Now i have certain observations to tell everyone out here

CPC was X and goes to .5 X next day. there is no change in no. of clicks, no change in traffic, no change is page content, no change any where, the ads that are shown are the same, but the payout is halved, and today it again comes to X.

Now what makes trouble is that if i earn $ y, that figure is too big for us, and if the next day it comes to .5 y it is a big loss for our company.

I can't agree that google should pay us 20 cents for click on one day and pay 10 cents next day.

I hoep people would guess

How do google rate a click?
How do they pay us depending on the Location of Visitor?
Does the page rank on which ad is displayed counts?
How can CPC variate so much? i don't think advertisers change CPC often.

I am also adwords advertiser, and i have seen around 20 clicks daily with only 10% variation in cost of click, i suspect that big G is doing something in the dark

It could be that they are giving us sweet pills at moments to ensure that everyone is happy and no one leaves the network to hope for better times to come back again.

I am looking forward for some serious thought evoking replies from senior members and sensible members who are here for a while.

In any case, we can tolerate 20 % upside or downside, but a big dips and highs are scaring.

I am sure EFV will give in his comments.

I will wait for responses, provided they are concise

Dhaliwal

11:32 am on Apr 24, 2004 (gmt 0)

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*Walks out the door after hearing his opinion is not allowed to be heard* But starts whispering to himself:

How can you possibly know that every advert shown is the same throughout the day, how can you possibly know what advert within the banner the user has clicked on (unless it is the single ad)...

These are 2 very good reasons as to why 1/2x is an annoying, but not unlikey figure to have. I am also a victim of this, but it works the other way also, so it evens itself out in the long run.

I doubt Google vary the amount they take from each click... Just a predefined percentage depending on the genre, type of publisher etc...

*Stops whispering*

W.

12:14 pm on Apr 24, 2004 (gmt 0)

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wonderboy,
your whispering is appreciated, but one thing i must clarify, we remain online for around 20 hours in a day, and the staff has checked that the adverts are similar most of the times, and i can think of the adverts being served by geo targetting, but still there is lot of other things that can make X into 2 X and even .5 X

So people are happy as long as they get a good money, but i am also not crying out for more, but its like >> being duped << as i can't get the facts of why this thing happens very often.

Most of the people are crying about the revenue taking big yes very big leaps and then getting very less. I think people here can find answers as to why this happens

3:36 pm on Apr 24, 2004 (gmt 0)

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Google has said that the click count may include invalid clicks and PSA clicks. Not that they bother to differentiate this information.

If the count on one day includes several invalid clicks, it would appear to make the EPC lower, even if it isn't.

3:41 pm on Apr 24, 2004 (gmt 0)

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Ok, I have some observations to share on this.

If your site is about one topic, this may not help at all.

I have a web site about topic A (a forum) with a commercial product reviews about topic B (a directory).

As you already know google said review site will be valued more.

From the channel info I set up, I know that the main web site about topic A gets X CTR and Y EPC.

The directory product review pages get 20X CTR and 40Y EPC.

The main forum site gets 4 times more traffic than the product review pages because they are in niche market.

Since April 1st, The product review pages started getting about same CTR but 50 - 55% of the previous EPCs.

I have been using adsense since last June and I know overall EPC has been decreasing a little bit (say 10 - 15% since last June?). However, they were quite stable except a few flukes.

Now i got halved EPC, I decided to create a new site for the product review pages. As you know forums do not have good ads and do not convert well (IMO).

The visitors to the product review pages are real potential buyers. so they should convert better than forum visitors.

I set up the new domain and moved all the product reviews and 301 redirected to the new location.

What happened?

1. I got my EPC back instantly for the next few days(4/15-4/18) to the point where I had before April 1st.
(I was happy.)

2. After a few days, Google dropped the entire pages from the listings probably due to the 301 redirect and New-Site-Perform-Poorly syndrome. the product review pages were ranked on the first page for most targeted keywords. Now I lost all the google's traffic(about 50%). ( I was not happy.)

3. So, now I am getting the traffic from Yahoo, MSN, and others (mostly SEs) to the new site. The number of average clicks are down ONLY 15% (the CTR increased by 70-80%). This tells me that people from Yahoo or MSN tend to click more adsense ads because they didn't see them before coming to my site. Google visitors already saw similar ads on Google.com when they searched for the same keywords. For adsense publishers, the more you have non-google traffic, the better chance you have for better CTR.

4. The new domain solved very untargeted adsense ads problems quickly. Instead of showing only one category ads over the cross, it is showing almost correct ads for each category.

I know the pending product page is small in niche market but has had quite stable CTR and number of visitors and clicks for quite a while.

The product review page is more than one year old now (it my look a week old only to google since I moved to new domain for this.).

The conslusion or my theory?

1. Old domain's EPC has been adjusted based on google's evaluation around on April 1st (in my case upto 45% drop).
2. New domain gets a default EPC rate (whatever it is).
3. Over the time period, it is evaluated again and the EPC is adjusted.
4. Yahoo & MSN has better conversion rate for adsense.

If anyone wants to discuss the details, you are more than welcome.

4:33 pm on Apr 24, 2004 (gmt 0)

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I can't agree that google should pay us 20 cents for click on one day and pay 10 cents next day.

Such wide swings may be happening on your site (and on some others), but I'm not seeing them. My daily EPCs have hovered between 15-20% less than my March average since the beginning of this month.

Does your site have a highly focused topic? If so, such things as short-term bidding wars, advertisers hitting their budget limits, etc. could have a dramatic effect on EPC. But on a site like mine, which has hundreds of subtopics within a broad "umbrella theme," the presence of many advertisers in many different categories has a smoothing effect on the site's overall EPC. Different sites, different patterns...and different conclusions about what Google is doing, if the publisher looks only at his own site's data.

5:29 pm on Apr 24, 2004 (gmt 0)

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I have observed that:
1. Adsense ads are rotating, and
2. Ads on the same page have a wide range of CPC. This range can be in ten folds.

These two issues which we can not control affect the average EPC dearly.

If all things are equal but the above two issues are not, the EPC can be swung wildly. On a lucky day (or hour), high paying ads are in our way and a high EPC will be a result. But on a bad day, these clicks are from the low paying ads, the average EPC for the day will be low.

6:03 pm on Apr 24, 2004 (gmt 0)

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I have observed that:
1. Adsense ads are rotating,.

I've noticed that, too. On my home page, for example, the four ads in the leaderboard might be about topic A one day, topic B the next, and back to topic A half a day later.

3:41 am on Apr 25, 2004 (gmt 0)

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varya, who told you that PSA clicks and invalid clicks are counted? i haven't read it anywhere, if it is the case, then there is bound to be difference.

Thanks a Lot itsgene for all that great knowledge, i have understood a large part of it and it is quite impressing. thanks for your time and your courage to share.

EFV, i think yours is a totally different case and you are having a really big site, with targetted audience, so you should not be considered in the common webmasters. LOL you once said your one day income was $ 1300 more, that makes most of people here insane.

well guys, have a great weekend with more earnings, i hope to see more thought pouring in for this thread.

Till then,
good bye
dhaliwal

3:50 am on Apr 25, 2004 (gmt 0)

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EFV, i think yours is a totally different case and you are having a really big site, with targetted audience, so you should not be considered in the common webmasters.

It's about 4,000 pages. That's a fraction of the size of some publishers' sites.

LOL you once said your one day income was $ 1300 more, that makes most of people here insane.

Yes, but that wasn't real income, it was an anomaly caused by a bot or click attack. And believe me, it was so far above my normal daily revenue that it stood out in my ASense report like an Irish Wolfhound in a roomful of Dachshunds. :-)

6:05 am on Apr 25, 2004 (gmt 0)

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Google told me when I wrote to them to find out why one of my channels showed clicks, but $0 revenue.

I posted a thread about it here at the time, but nobody seemed terribly interested.

6:22 am on Apr 25, 2004 (gmt 0)

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Just wanted to put my two cents in as an AdWords advertiser. I change what I am paying per click almost daily. In my industry (network hardware) there are advertisers who don't really have a spending limit on their advertising, and there are those who have a fixed budget. When someone on a fixed budget runs out of money, the rest of us can tell and adjust our own bid prices accordingly.

One day I may pay $2 a click - the next day I might pay $1.50 or $1.00 or even less. This is the case with Overture and pretty much everywhere I advertise. Managing my PPC advertising is a full time job for one person in my office.

Anyway... if I'm only PAYING half as much for a click, then you're only going to get half as much as your cut for being an AdSense user. Really your only option is to drop AdSense and go with fixed-rate ads from another source, but typically those don't pay as much as AdSense.

7:17 am on Apr 25, 2004 (gmt 0)

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dhaliwal, another thing to consider is this: in your initial post you said "ads that are shown are the same".
This might be true for you, but with geo-targeting, visitors at other places in the world might see other ads, so this can be the reason why you see this kind of EPC fluctuations.