Forecasting if AdSense makes sense for my site

It's easy to do, but I need a range of EPC percentages

[cdarling]

I'm not currently enrolled in AdSense, but I'm seriously considering it. But before I spend a few hours setting up to try it, I would like to spend a few minutes running some "thought experiments" (i.e. spreadsheets) to see if there's any chance of a worthwhile payout for my site.

I've set up a spreadsheet that uses the following facts and assumptions:

- My site's monthly traffic

- A range of click-through rates that I judge to be reasonable for my site

- A range of PPC ad prices that appear to be reasonable for the keywords of my site (according to [uv.bidtool.overture.com...]

Now all I need is a range of reasonable assumptions about what percentage Google might pay. Based on other threads in this forum, I'm thinking of using numbers between about 25% and 50%.

So here's my question for you all -- based on your experience with AdSense, would I be wise to consider the possibility of getting less than 25% commission? Should I consider the possibility of getting more than 50% commission?

I know there's no way to be precise! (And that trying to be precise would violate TOS.) I'm asking a very general question -- what's your intuitive feel for a range of numbers that would, in your opinion, be most likely to yield useful -- not accurate, just useful! -- results.

Does 25% to 50% sound like a sensible range of possible commission rates? Or should I skew that range higher? Lower?

Thanks very much! I value your intuitive feel for the issue!

Charlie

[Rodney]

This is just my opinion, and is probably not what you wanted to hear...but:

The time it takes to put the adsense code up and give it a test run for a few weeks is probably less than the time it takes to figure out spreadsheets and possible percentages.

Seems like it would be worth just trying it out.

[Undead Hunter]

[withdrawn because there is a thread about this]

[edited by: Undead_Hunter at 9:25 pm (utc) on April 9, 2004]

[ScottM]

Rodney, I was thinking the very same thing. It's sorta like counting the money you might make before actually getting any.

Humorous sidenote:

Could you put my code up on your website and I'll tell you what you want to know?
:>)

Whoa...where's my manners?

Welcome to WebmasterWorld!

[cdarling]

Thanks, guys. I knew I'd get that kind of response. ;-)

There are issues I didn't go into that make this little "what-if" scenario I'd like to run a very wise investment of my time and effort. Trust me on that...

So, what does anyone think of 25% to 50%? Is that a reasonable range to look at, or does your gut tell you it should be tweaked on way or the other?

Charlie

[Sharper]

Near the high end of your figure is reasonable, but you'll want to factor in that Google tends to charge less than Overture for clicks, especially with their recent conversion tracking related changes.

[edited by: Sharper at 11:56 pm (utc) on April 9, 2004]

[cdarling]

Thanks, Sharper. That's very helpful food for thought.

Any other intuitive reactions to the 25% to 50% range of EPC commissions?

Charlie

[ScottM]

Yes, I'm seeing as low as about 1-3%.

[valley]

There are too many variables involved, for one every keyword has a different value over a period of time.
You might be looking at lower values towards the end of the month or higher if someone drops in a big budget for a new ad campaign.
The more unpredictable factor remains AdSense ever changing PPC logarithm.
Nothing beats the real thing, basing predictions results on assumptions within a field where parameters have large unknown variables it is a futile exercise.
But if you really need numbers you should be looking at 30% to 50% .

[edited by: valley at 10:26 pm (utc) on April 9, 2004]

[jomaxx]

At this point I would count on more like 25-33% than 50%.

But it's hard to guesstimate your clickthrough rate, you don't know what kind of ads will actually be targeted to your site, and the Overture tool isn't necessarily a good guide to what Google advertisers pay. IMO if you're careful you could estimate your earnings to within about a factor of two at best.

[cdarling]

Wow.

Just to be sure I understand you correctly, Scott, you're saying I should consider the possibility that an ad that cost an advertiser $1 might pay me somewhere between $.01 and $.03? Have I got that straight?

If I do, that's certainly an "interesting" scenario.

Charlie

[Symbios]

I think you're best bet is to try it, I've run banner and text ads together and neither tend to see any drop in revenue when run at the same time, so if you have some sort of ads running and you put in adsense you may find that the end result is an increase.

If you have a dynamic site it wouldn't take that long to set up.

With regard to % it would depend on the content of your site.

[ScottM]

Yep. Sad huh? That's using OV's rates, not Google Adwords rates. I use them as a comparison.

2.14% to be exact for the cost of that #1 term on OV.

[edited by: ScottM at 10:36 pm (utc) on April 9, 2004]

[cdarling]

Thanks, Valley and jomaxx. Very helpful input!

I'd be ecstatic to forecast with an accuracy of plus or minus 100%, given all the imponderable variables everyone points out. I'll be happy if I come out within the right order of magnitude, i.e. tens of dollars versus hundreds of dollars versus thousands of dollars.

Given the extreme variability of real-world scenarios, I think that very rough level of forecasting is all that's realistic. For my purposes, it's still useful.

Charlie

[cdarling]

Thanks for that, Scott. That opens the possibility of a whole new ballpark. Depending, of course, on a lot of factors that are unknowable until I try it.

But this is just the kind of insight I wanted to be armed with before I tried it.

I'll be interested to see if anyone else suggests any other ballparks wildly different from the 25% to 50% that many people seem comfortable with.

Charlie

[ScottM]

I'd be ecstatic to forecast with an accuracy of plus or minus 100%

Forecast? Perhaps I misunderstood you.

Why would you need a forecast? Especially within such a wide range?

[loanuniverse]

You just can't forecast...

You don't have the true adwords rates.

You don't know what percentage of the CPC the publisher gets {the best guess is tiered}

You do not know if the term that is going to be trigered is the one you think of. It could be a similar one with a different CPC.

I think that even when one thinks that he knows what one is getting along comes something like channels and throws light into what sections of your website are making money and which sections are payng out the minimum.

Put the code up, chances are you will make better or as good a return as anything else out there.

[cdarling]

You're both right. "Forecast" was a poor choice of words on my part.

"Explore a range of reasonable possibilities" is all I'm interested in, and everyone's input is very helpful in that regard.

Charlie

[ignatz]

have you been approved into the adsense program? sounds like a good place to start...

[jomaxx]

ScottM, are you using the top bid as your benchmark? In some cases the top bid on Overture is far above the others, but the bidder only pays the cost of the #2 bid plus one cent.