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How long before effective cpm's go through the floor...
I think this is going to be a real issue. I doubt many advertisers are changing their daily spend limits to accomodate the increased opportunity for exposures and clicks. I'm not even sure if Adwords is making advertisers aware that AdSense is going on (I am an Adwords advertiser, and I cannot recall getting any official notice about AdSense at all)
As people keep their eye on competitors, they will see the "Ads by Google" and sign up themselves. I am surprised at how fast AdSense has grown on all kinds of sites, from large sites such as NY Post, right down to the smallest niche site. I find it astonishing to see AdSense on sites I suspected were not maintained or updated on even a yearly basis, but suddenly, they have AdSense skyscrapers or banners on all of the pages.
I was the first of all my competitors to use AdSense. About a week after I began using them, many had joined AdSense as well. With the same content area as all these other sites, I don't think it will be very long at all before I am displaying PSA ads later in the day, which is often a busy time for my site traffic-wise, simply because advertisers daily limits have been exhausted.
I think that people are on a real high with earnings right now, but as more publishers sign up with AdSense and the popularity of the program grows, earnings are going to drop. More and more lower paying ads will be displayed as the higher paying advertisers are hitting their daily limits every day.
Someone in another thread said don't be too quick at dropping your non-AdSense advertisers and ad networks, because there is the real possibility of revenue dropping significantly over the next few months. You don't want to burn any bridges if this does happen, but I am willing to bet that many people are.
<added> Just as an aside to Jenstar's comments above...If bigtime advertiser budgets are being exhausted that can only mean good things for the little guy who can only afford a small amount per click through AdWords :) Have to look at it both ways! The small guys ads will be shown more often now that the big guys balances are running out each day. Could be a good time to jump on the Adwords bandwagon too......
2) It might be that your on-page optimization needs some fine-tuning to help the spider discern its focus more effectively. Try tweaking a few things and see if you can find something that makes a difference. Optimizing for Adsense is a new art.
How long before effective cpm's go through the floor as inventories are glutted and the web is saturated?
You're assuming that there's an infinite supply of inventory for every valuable keyword. I don't believe that's the case.
So what if THE WASHINGTON POST or How Stuff Works has AdWords/AdSense banners on every page? That doesn't mean a thing to the advertiser who's selling fireproofing compounds for industrial applications or hotel rooms in Salzburg. It doesn't even mean much to the advertiser who's selling Silversea cruises (which appeal to a very narrow segment of the cruise market) or grand pianos.
The number of Web pages on those topics at any given time that can generate clicks from more than a handful of interested readers is smaller than the average person might think. Indeed, that's almost certainly one of the reasons why Google launched AdSense and Overture launched its content-ads program: They couldn't deliver enough impressions and clickthrough from search pages alone.
Also, it's important to remember that AdSense ads are CPC ads, not CPM ads, and bids are determined by where the advertiser wants to rank, not by how many impressions are available. So the fact that 1,000 Web sites may be displaying AdWords for purple widgets doesn't mean every advertiser can be assured of cheap inventory.
Finally, we're just beginning to see big advertisers using CPC text ads. (E.g., the British Airways AdSense ad that I discovered on my site the other day.) Traditional advertising budgets have already been cannibalized by sales promotion, direct mail, frequency marketing, and other specialized forms of marketing communications. As Fortune 500 companies discover that networks like AdSense offer a cost-effective way to reach highly targeted prospects for everything from reflective traffic-sign films to bowling-alley sanders to promotional hotel rates in Milwaukee, they'll use targeted text ads in the same way that they already use direct mail, telemarketing, sales promotion, etc.
IF MY AdSense PPV > AdWords CPC (where PPV=profit per visitor)
THEN [(Adsense PPV)-(Adwords CPC)]*(# impressions) = Nice Profits ;)
europeforvisitors....That is indeed interesting! Definately would depend on niche as to how things will pan out CPM-wise in the future :)
YEs niche publishing is what its always been on the web, and adsense, ov, and content ads will give it a big kick forward. Advertisers dont want to worry about negotiating agreements with sites that may bring them 500 hits a month, but if by one click you can advertise on every adsense publisher in your nice, it suddenly makes much more sense. These niche sites are gold mines to advertisers frustrated my the mass-media payment models still existing like dinosaurs on the net.
I guess inventory will dry up very quick for viagra, and other high CPC-trageted sites, but those who publish in their small area of speciality and provide credible sites will find that invesntory drying up will be less of a problem. And as advertisers get to learn how easy and effective it is to use PPC rather than go through ad agencies, you may find average CPC for niche areas which have traditionally been very low, increasing in value.
I cna see inventory drying up for computer-services-software, pharmas, recorded pop music, and popular consumer items drying up a bit quicker though, as there are more sites chasing those ads and the higher-priced ones.
[edited by: chiyo at 5:58 am (utc) on July 25, 2003]
If the adsense is converting for advertisers
I know there are plenty of advertisers who don't check conversions regularly (if at all). Not smart business sense, but it happens.
I guess inventory will dry up very quick for viagra
I wonder, though, how many AdSense sites there are out there with the specific content that would bring up a viagra ad (or weight loss prescriptions, or some of those pricey lawyer keywords).
What I am seeing are some ads that are definitely more niche driven, and probably don't have nearly as many Google search exposures as they are having AdSense exposures.
Dont worry Jen, there are hundreds of smarty pants guys (and gals) out there developing these sites as we speak, with adsense code on every page... :)
In reality, I think many people are impressed with their CTR and earnings, and are building specific sites about the high $ keywords. It won't be long before we see these kinds of sites popping up in the serps (if they aren't already), sites that would have otherwise been straight affiliate sites.
I think the affiliates and other ad server networks are just riding it out at the moment, (and helping spin along the perception *quietly* that it wont last long too!)
After all if adsense does go under, the REAL winners will be existing affiliates, ad networks, and newcomers like textads.biz. There will be whole lot of adsense publishers who previously didnt consider online ads as revenue looking for new networks and it will be an ad buyers market and second party market again...
(E.g., the British Airways AdSense ad that I discovered on my site the other day.)
Just curious, did you check the full url? I noticed a few ads where they will put one url in the status bar but when you click on the ad it will redirect you first to an affiliate site then to the url they claimed it was for.
Since BA has an affiliate program with CJ it could have been affiliate....
That is the nub of the thing right now.
Those of us making money out of AdSense rationalise AdSense as the great leap forward. The thing that will change advertising as we know it
And those of us tied to an affiliate site or other ad server that they do not (cannot) change to AdSense. And who believe that the botom will drop out of the whole AdSense market, and that the web will regain its rationality. They denigrate AdSense
Bottom line is nobody knows...but Google sure believed that they had to test the idea before anyone else moved in on a major scale.
>>These niche sites are gold mines to advertisers frustrated my the mass-media payment models still existing like dinosaurs on the net<<
I stand behind that statement too, I think it will work
...but I would say that anyway, wouldn't I?