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Solution to the falling EPC for many AdSense publishers?

The rapid increase in the number of AdSense sites may be to blame

         

androidtech

6:44 am on Feb 29, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



I have seen a lot of messages on falling AdSense EPC levels on this forum and others. Here's a theory on why this is happening (to some), and a possible solution to the problem.

Theory: for a lot of market niches, minus the Yahoo effect, the rampant increase in AdSense web sites has dropped EPC for many webmasters. This may be due to the fact that a lot of lower quality sites are being brought into the fold due to Google's aggressive recruiting. The lower quality sites lead to the AdWords advertiser turning a negative eye towards non-SERP Ad display, because of poorer sales conversion rates.

If that theory is true, then the only thing that would change things would be if Google took on the humongous task of tracking conversions for their AdWords advertisers, by AdSense publishing site (voluntarly participation).

Then web sites would get a ranking number, a sales "conversion rank". This could lead to AdWords keyword bid amounts having a minimum "conversion rank" filter setting.

"I want a maximum CPC of .50 cents and a minimum conversion rank of 7".

Right now, lower converting sites are punishing (not intentionally) higher converting sites by draining the ad budgets of the AdWords advertisers, on traffic that results in little or no sales.

This could reverse the AdWords advertisers opinion on web site contextual ads to one of coveting them. If you knew that a site with a sales "conversion rank" of 7, converted on average 5% of their web traffic to sales, you would jump through hoops to get your ads on rank 7 sites.

Another powerful synergistic effect of this, would the change in AdSense publisher behavior. For those that are trying to manipulate page content to attract certain AdSense ads, this would be a powerful disincentive. Instead AdSense webmasters would be very concerned in "pre-qualifying through content", their traffic, to insure or achieve a high sales "conversion rank" . Similar to the motivation to increase the AdWords CTR on a keyword phrase, on the AdWords advertiser side of things.

Just a late night thought.

Thanks.
AndroidTech

europeforvisitors

7:42 am on Feb 29, 2004 (gmt 0)



That's an interesting idea. I wonder how hard (and expensive) it would be to implement?

As a publisher, I didn't know anything about Google's existing conversion tracking until somebody here at WW mentioned:

[adwords.google.com...]

ByronM

8:34 am on Feb 29, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



Adwords advertising which appears as adsense for us isn't anything that will EVER be stable. Some people spend 50 bucks a month some people spend millions of bucks a month, however it will never bee the same day in and day out.

Win some - loose some.

You can try and block some ads to get "Fresh content". that usually helps a CTR. If your site is frequented by recurrent visitors then maybe they're sick of the ones that they see day in day out - so try and spice it up a bit.

dhaliwal

9:41 am on Feb 29, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



well i have seen today that there are 10 clicks and i earned only 37 cents for those ten clicks, so the cpc comes down to 3.7 cents

I don't think, with such low cpc, publishers would like adsense.

why isn't google doing anything to stop the bad publishers from coming into the scene.

my websites are highly ranked and yet such a low cpc, i think our traditional advertisers will be paying much more than adsense.

well there is a need for improvement.

dhaliwal

bird

10:26 am on Feb 29, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



I don't think, with such low cpc, publishers would like adsense.

I certainly wouldn't!

I think typical figures are about an order of magnitude higher. If your site really generates such a low EPC, then that's quite unusual. I'd be careful to base any general conclusions on your data.

logiclamp

12:00 pm on Feb 29, 2004 (gmt 0)



Why do something that complicated? Why not just add the ability to pay on conversion alongside the ability to do flat rate bids.

Google already has 100% of the code and infrastructure in place to do this .. just need to plug the conversion code to the payment code.

I am an AdWords advertiser and I'd be happy to use AdSense if I only had to pay on conversion.

For the paranoid, think of it this way: 100s of millions of dollars are not being put into the AdSense economy because of a lack of pay-on-conversion ability.

I know pay on conversion scares you, but I guarantee you that more money in AdSense ecosystem will only increase EPC.

logiclamp

12:22 pm on Feb 29, 2004 (gmt 0)



Actually, heh, it just occured to me that Google is probably already using this for fraud detection on AdSense.

All they have to do is compare conversion data from AdWords and the average AdSense publisher and they would get an idea of how badly your adsense site is actually performing.

Now if they just got rid of that dang image requirement, I'm sure the conversion code and their fraud detection would be much more accurate...

CPCretirement

12:41 pm on Feb 29, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



One potential problem is that you would have a statistic that affects your site revenue that can be influenced by competitors.

Theoretically you could be impacted by competitors who click on your ads just to lower your conversion rating.

europeforvisitors

12:52 pm on Feb 29, 2004 (gmt 0)



logiclamp wrote:

I am an AdWords advertiser and I'd be happy to use AdSense if I only had to pay on conversion.

I don't think you'll find many publishers who are willing to assume your risk and subsidize your business while you learn how to pick keywords and write advertising copy.

justageek

1:04 pm on Feb 29, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



Theoretically you could be impacted by competitors who click on your ads just to lower your conversion rating.

This can generate 'the dreaded email' as the system stands today.

JAG

justageek

1:06 pm on Feb 29, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



I don't think you'll find many publishers who are willing to assume your risk and subsidize your business while you learn how to pick keywords and write advertising copy.

This is basic 101 stuff to weed out though. Google has been dropping campaigns when they don't get a decent CTR with AdWords so why not do it in this scenario also?

JAG

logiclamp

1:24 pm on Feb 29, 2004 (gmt 0)



EFV - rank is equal to CTR*CPC(conversion per click), not CPC alone.

If you have no CTR and you have no conversions, then you are not going to be on anyone's AdSense website.

UKFord

1:34 pm on Feb 29, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



>Theoretically you could be impacted by competitors who click on your ads just to lower your conversion rating.

This can generate 'the dreaded email' as the system stands today.

JAG <

There is absolutely nothing you can do about this. Too many sites are now getting this overclick attack and Google doesn't have to say anything when it bans sites.

ByronM

4:43 pm on Feb 29, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



Most publishers don't use adsense as the only revenue source. Adsense works great when you have CONTENT that drives the demand for the ads and usually the clicks on them. Don't expect to make much if your website isn't anything competitive either (or low margin sales)

If your only getting 3.7 cents, try and disable the ads you have running by blocking them and seeing if you get something else.

With the stats sometimes things don't flow together - your CTR can be higher than your earnings until everything is compiled and synced up.

ByronM

4:45 pm on Feb 29, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



And i like adwords because it isn't "conversion" driven.

PPC!= Automatic conversion and you will loose alot of webmasters if they even think about doing that.

What would they do? froogle.com your site and give us 10-25% of your sales? thats the only way i would do conversion payments.

figment88

4:58 pm on Feb 29, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



Companies advertising on my websites typically have sales cycles of about 6 weeks. Often, a customer does initial searching from a business computer, and then follows up at a home computer. Final sales usually occur over the phone or through the postal mail.

Some of the companies have tried conversion tracking but it is just too inaccurate for this scenario.

Why do posters assume their situation is universal?

loanuniverse

5:08 pm on Feb 29, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



I would not mind adwords going CPA, if and only if:

-I was assured that all the advertisers had implemented tracking. Guess what, I am also an adwords advertiser with content turned on, and I would not install tracking if it was an option. I do not sell anything on the site, there is no "shopping cart".

- If the payout is increased to one that is reasonable with the fact that you just got a lead or closed a deal with a visitor that you got from my site. I was going to say "with a payout consistent with those paid by affiliate programs", but 80% of the ads are coming from advertisers that normally don't run affiliate programs. Now that I think about it, a single conversion from my site could be worth thousands to each one of them, so let me work on a percentage commission basis... please!

<sigh> Problem is that even if the potential is great, so few companies in my particular widget industry are advertising on the net, that the EPC does not reflect its true value.

justageek

5:18 pm on Feb 29, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



I would not install tracking if it was an option

Why not?

I do not sell anything on the site, there is no "shopping cart".

Track it as a lead then.

JAG

europeforvisitors

5:25 pm on Feb 29, 2004 (gmt 0)



There's one critical difference between affiliate programs and pay-per-conversion ads:

With affiliate programs, the publisher has 100% control over the advertiser, ad copy, ad formatting, and ad placement. With AdSense, the publisher is merely providing a block of space, and everything else is under the control of the advertiser.

In any case, this whole discussion is academic, because it would be foolish for Google to make such a drastic change to the AdSense program after reaching critical mass. Realistically, it just isn't going to happen.

justageek

5:39 pm on Feb 29, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



In any case, this whole discussion is academic, because it would be foolish for Google to make such a drastic change to the AdSense program after reaching critical mass. Realistically, it just isn't going to happen.

Why?

JAG

loanuniverse

5:53 pm on Feb 29, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



JAG: It won't happen because Google can make more money the way it is now. You are requesting a huge amount of resources to be invested into a program that will not have even 50% advertiser participation IMHO.

Track it as a lead then.

I have enough tracking with the information adwords provides and my own server logs. Adding racking codes to my landing pages means nothing to me.

justageek

6:10 pm on Feb 29, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



It won't happen because Google can make more money the way it is now.

I guess I don't quite understand.

If the advertiser pays on cpc and the ROI is not positive the advertiser goes away so how will Google and the content site make money unless the advertiser doesn't care about a positive return?

If the ROI is positive on CPC then it should be positive on anything else unless the advertiser gives 100 percent of their net sales away or some other strange thing.

Isn't it about the advertiser and how successful the campaign is more than it is about how much Google can make until the advertisers go away?

JAG

loanuniverse

7:42 pm on Feb 29, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



I am not saying that both the advertiser and Google could not make money in a CPA format. I just think that there is more money to be made this way. Things are never black or white as in "one way is sustainable and we make money" and "the other way is not sustainable and we don't make money". Probably both ways can make money.

It is way much easier to run something CPC than it is to run something CPA.

What is the largest CPA network? How many advertisers does it have? How many does adwords have? How many of them can you trust to be honest?

I don't think I could convince you that in order to make this work, Google would need to invest a lit of resources and would probably lose a lot of advertisers/publishers in the process, but that is the way it would end up.

ByronM

7:53 pm on Feb 29, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



Jag said
I guess I don't quite understand.

If the advertiser pays on cpc and the ROI is not positive the advertiser goes away so how will Google and the content site make money unless the advertiser doesn't care about a positive return?

If the ROI is positive on CPC then it should be positive on anything else unless the advertiser gives 100 percent of their net sales away or some other strange thing.

Isn't it about the advertiser and how successful the campaign is more than it is about how much Google can make until the advertisers go away?

It isn't up the the publisher to make the advertiser sucesful. *NO* program is ever a seller if you can't create or fulfill the demand. You have control to target for keywords and phrases and you can choose SERP or Adwords support.

Publishers run adwords to generate revenue on the content they have.

If your not making money off adwords, then PPC just may not be for you. It isn't the "golden egg" that many people make it out to be. Just because we as adsense publishers send traffic your way based on ads and keywords you choose doesn't mean we shouldn't get paid if you don't make a sale. Perhaps your strategy is wrong.

If you want an affiliate program, there are many more out there to choose from.

I get paid for delivering people to you, it is up to you to choose how to sell to them. Adsense isn't an affiliate system to generate leads to your site, it is a system by which we share revenue to send TARGETED VISTORS TO YOUR SITE of which *YOU* as advertisers have more controll over then ever afforded in any previous online marketing strategy.

Sounds like you need to do a cost analisys on your program instead of just trying to figure out why your sales aren't what you expect (from your posts you seem like your having to justify your spending by trying to bring up the idea of affiliate style advertising so you get free ads and only pay when you make a sale)

justageek

7:56 pm on Feb 29, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



I don't think I could convince you that in order to make this work

I'm not looking to be convinced.....I'm just trying to understand why it would be such a horrible thing for both the content sites and the advertisers to work together and share some of the risk :-)

I don't think honesty would play much of a factor since the CTR/tracking algo could simply drop a merchant who didn't provide income to the content site. If anything I think it would help force merchants to be better at managing campaigns. Especially if they stand to lose a spot on a good content site from lack of honesty or any other reason.

Affiliates that get the shaft from dishonest merchants only do so because there is nothing in place in the affiliate networks to limit where a merchant ad can show.

JAG

justageek

8:10 pm on Feb 29, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



based on ads and keywords you choose

This is one of the problems for advertisers when it comes to contextual advertising.

If someone on the Google homepage types in a keyword it is a fragment of what they are really after and then it is entirely up to the advertiser to get the creative and the keywords correct. The SERP brings back regular listings to choose from so if the ads are not correct there is less than 50 percent chance that a click will occur on an AdWord listing since the surfer can click a regular listing. At least before Florida ;-)

On content sites there is no longer a fragment to deal with. The entire content is there but the advertiser is still limited to keywords and AdSense makes a match based on that information. There is very little room for error like there is on the SERP. For the most part there are no free listings for the surfer to click on so you get no click or the curiosity click if they are not looking to purchase what is on the ad.

JAG

[edited by: justageek at 8:11 pm (utc) on Feb. 29, 2004]

loanuniverse

8:10 pm on Feb 29, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



I'm just trying to understand why it would be such a horrible thing for both the content sites and the advertisers to work together and share some of the risk :-)

If you want me to share your risk, then I want some of your reward. I am not going to deliver qualified leads or sales for the pennies that an advertiser is paying for clicks. All I am offering is leads, you make sure that you convert them by:

1- Writing good ad copy that conveys what you are selling and for how much.

2- Make a compeling argument for the product you are selling in your landing page.

Lets face it conversion in ecommerce can be brutal at times, that is why there are different levels of traffic and what advertisers are willing to pay for.

From low effective to high effectivenes IMHO:

1- Run of Network banner ads
2- Category/Geotarget Banner ads.
3- Popups and popunders
4- Interstatials and other intrusive forms of ads.
5- Contextual text
6- Search Ads
7- Affiliate advertising where you pay only for making a sale.

Do not expect to pay me at tier 5 for delivering a sale. You know what: if I do deliver a qualified lead in my particular widget category, I expect nothing less than US$100. Do you think they will pay me that?

[edited by: loanuniverse at 8:19 pm (utc) on Feb. 29, 2004]

loanuniverse

8:14 pm on Feb 29, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



Affiliates that get the shaft from dishonest merchants only do so because there is nothing in place in the affiliate networks to limit where a merchant ad can show.

That is not what I have heard. :) While webmasterworld is a good resource for affiliate webmasters, there is another board that is dedicated solely to affiliates and I have read several accounts that have made me wonder. While I am sure that there are instances of publisher fraud, I am also certain that there are instances of advertiser fraud in CPA.

justageek

8:18 pm on Feb 29, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



If you want me to share your risk, then I want some of your reward.

Exactly.

Lets face it conversion in ecommerce can be brutal at times

This is why merchants who were dishonest or couldn't convert wouldn't be able to run ads on a CPS basis through the system. They would have to go to CPC and stay that way or not have their ads shown ever.

You know what if I do deliver a qualified lead in my particular widget category, I would expect nothing less than US$100. Do you think they will pay me that?

Some will pay that and much more. Some are much less. Filter the merchants you don't want like you do now ;-)

JAG

loanuniverse

8:25 pm on Feb 29, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



Too much work JAG, I haven't even filtered a single advertiser out in the current setting.

I also doubt that they would pay $100 unless they had to. When making decisions as to how much someone has to pay, it is not a matter of: "let me see, I am going to make anywhere from $500 to $2,000 for this sale... I think I will go ahead and pay my affiliate $200 for it"

It is more of something like "Jack my competitor is paying $20.00 per lead so I am going to pay $25.00"

So far, I am happy with the EPC I am getting, if I am making millionaires out of the advertisers while I am getting pennies for the clicks, I am fine with that. On the other hand, if I am really making people rich, I hope the Jacks of the world get into the game and start bidding :D

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