Please give me Your predictions.

What do you think?

[simonCh]

Hi,I am new here, and I have small question. I have a site 3 years old, about software (about 5 software products, for very targeted audience) I wasn't in google adSense until now, these days I signed for account and not jet aded AdSense to my pages. SIte have about 20 pages. I have about 2500 unique visits montly and about 5000 page impresions monthly, and once more I repeat that is dedicated to specific software. Before I start I am interested what Your predictions are that this site will make with adSense monthly? I am asking this, NOT because I think that I will earn thousans $$$ or something similar, but because I am just interested to see You predictions, and off course in next weeks (mounths) I will inform You who guessed and who not. So this is just like small 'prediction' game :) Thanks to all!

[dataguy]

$27.38

[mzanzig]

$15.00

[rj87uk]

Blue.

_{I never was good at this game...}

[endomorph1]

OK, here's my prediction -

If

H'o = [RT1T2/(T2 - T1)] ln (K2'/K1')

and

G 'o = [Delta r]H 'o - T[Delta r]S 'o

and

A 'o = [Delta r]H(cal) - [Delta r]N(H+)[Delta r]Ho(HBuff) - [Delta r]N(Mg2+)[Delta r]Ho(MgBuff)

then

ASR = 1/4 <= max[(b-1)/b,c/(c+1)]2 < d < 1 max[(b-1)/c,b/(c+1)]2 < a < (b/c)2 + ax[(b-1)/b,c/(c+1)]2 < a(c/b)2 < 1

or in laymens terms, about $12.89

[bts111]

Welcome to WebmasterWorld simonCh!

I have looked into my crystal ball and it has told me that you will make exactly $22.97.

[panlus]

I think it will tell us more about you than about adsense since you didn't list your site.

$1-10 and you've made a good site that nobody wants to leave by clicking the adverts.
$10-30 and you're truthful
$30-300 and you're prone to the 10 times exhaggeration rule.
$300+ and you're a plex troll, or from one of those 'get rich quick' forums.

[simonCh]

Well, thanks to all, and please continue with your predictions. It is very interesting to me. Because of that I will tell 2nd part of 'story' or in other words, something that I 'forgot' to say. But before that I repaet, I am posting here because this is my small 'exploration' and not some get-rich-quck crazy idea or something similar...
Well, I WAS in AdSense 2 Years ago. When I signed, I puted adds on 5 pages of my website,and I it started to make me $10 daily. I suppose than You say "oooo yeeeah" and "so why You deleted adss" or something similar, but here is explanatio. Like I said my site is software related,and software that I am making and selling from my site was/is attractive those and these days. I maded $10 daily, but I release that my COMPETITION (on similar software) making traffic from adds from my site, I am earning $10 but salles of my product was fail dramaticaly (my average was 6-9 copiess daily,and after puting adds it was 1-2) so I decided ofcourse that I need to remove adds.When I done that, my salles come back. Than I was interested to find out how was so easy to make $10 daily? In normal cirrcomstances every body would be happe that have $10 from first day, but for me I was about - $200 on salles of my product,so that means actualy about -$190 (when I count those $10 from adds) I started to explore,and very soon I release that my cometition pay up to $2 per click because they I are geting on that way VERY HIGH,HIGH directed traffic, they sell more copies of their product and I failing down. What is the point? Point is that I released that those $2 worth every cent, because they have a litle bit better product that I have,and that somone from my,for exampe "order" page when click their add, chance to NOT BUY my product (customer is already on my order page) and to BUY THEIR PRODUCT is about 50:50, thir products cost $49 and those $2 are sily, aprox on $5 invested in adds they earning thanks to me :) about $44.
For past two years I sold a lot of copies and maked money for new more profitabile software project, now I have two more, that generates me more money that first that I am taling about here. SO because of that I decided to sell that site in next few months, but before of that I decided to experiment and to see how much I will earn on adSense if I put it on every page of my site. Point is not the money, point is that is for me best way to learn how stuffs realy functioning...
Well that was my second part of stor and now Yu have a litle bit more informations so please continue with Your predictions or expertise, I am joking a bit, but also I am a bit serious, because I think that we all can lear someting very useful from this my story, and that I can learn something from You predictions about earning from AdSense from this site,so please continue to predict. Thanks

[driris]

$80-120/month

[panlus]

Your story doesn't sound correct.

If you were an adsense publisher you would know you can block competitors adverts very easily.

Also that is an eCPM of $240 which would attract a lot of 'review', 'advice' and 'comparison shopping sites' sites to drive down the price. (5/20 * 5000 = 1250 pages per month, $10 per day = $300 per month, = $240 eCPM).

As soon as $2 CPCs appear that a 20 page site can target, a hundred sites spring up to capture the advertising and drive down the earnings until it's not worth going after. There are a lot of people chasing a limited number of keywords and more arrive every day, hoping to make that pot of gold they've read so much about on 'get rich quick' websites. This is why I am suspicious of stories even when they are not so far out as to be unbelievable.

[simonCh]

Panlus, I knew that I can block cometiotion ads ofcourse,but...But You are tallking from 'AdSenser' prespective. I don't care much about money that I can earn from adSense, this is just an experiment. I have my software bussiness that I invested whole my life in. When I starte site that we are talking about I have profit from selling my software and that was primarly. I was posted here because I want to hear others opinions, not to make #1000 daily with addsense. On my other two sites that are much more profitabile that this my first that I am talking about I don't have AdSense at all, but that is some other story...When You are serious software developer how looks to You customers Adds from google on Your site? Me and my team experimt also with this, measure traffic, send forms to our existing customers etc, and decided NO ADDS on serious projects. I am not clasicc webmaster, I am software developer and my earnings are from software that I am making,simple. I tried to answer on Your souspicious :)

[panlus]

simon,

Stickymail me your URL and I'll check it and reverse my position.

[trillianjedi]

NO ADS on serious projects

A very good philosophy in my book.

TJ

[moTi]

thanks for your info, simon, very interesting.

it backs up my view, that adsense has no place in

a) corporate sites

b) presentation sites

c) sites, that sell products (with few exceptions)

all three cases are ridiculus and draw a silly picture about the sites' business. no way, not even to test in front of visitors how it works. makes me think: oh, if they need money so badly, i go elsewhere, because their products can't be good.
as site owner, if it doesn't cost you cash directly, at least it costs your reputation.

[simonCh]

Well moTi,I see that You understand what I meant when I say that when we are tallking about adSense, what is perspective of an 'AdSenser' and what is perspective from some other angle :) Exactly that

[simonCh]

We went to other subject, so please let continue with Your predictions...

[Paris]

I will guess on the high-end -- around $125 a month.

The reason being that my theory is that you may be exploring AdSense due to traffic and sales tapering off (when you were making $10 a day -- or $300 a month, it was probably on better traffic than 5000 page impressions a month). So the AdSense ads may be effective if there are more popular software alternatives than yours.

A few years can be a lot of time, too. Has a rival launched a free software product? That too may lead to more users being lured away by a well-worded ad.

[G_Smitty]

$19.94

Of course I picked Duke to win the NCCA tournament, so what do I know.

[moneyraker]

$40.00 per day.

[moneyraker]

Ooopsss. Sorry - I meant $40 per month.