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So let me pose this question: which business division do you think is going to make serious profit or revenue (please specify) other than AdWords in the near future (1-3 years)?
So is that the general consensus then?
Google is going to build tonnes of businesses then that they feed AdWords into?
It's a powerful conclusion, I'll give it that.
Basically it means that they can build something and give it away for free as long as it generates AdWords income to pay for it.
The more AdWords opportunities they develop, the more people will bid to get to the top of of the AdWords bid list, which makes it more profitable for them to embed their AdWords into free aps.
Basically the system feeds itself... cool idea.
I guess this is why Bill (or was it Ballmer?) are talking about the shift to free software supported by ads.
Still though, I can't imagine I'd run software with ads in my face all the time. I can't give up that kind of screen real estate, plus when I'm working, I have no desire to be distracted by marketing material.
So I think it's somewhat questionable that model is going to play out, though we shall see. It would be interesting to see how much GMAIL makes for Google and if it covers its costs.
IF windows and Office stops being the cash cow, would it be that hard for MSFT to tighten up screws and turn at least some of the rest profitable? They have many options, but right now can afford to take a loss on make products because they are making a fortune in Windows, Office etc.
MSFT, unfortunately, has a cash cow it needs to protect. This makes them a lot less nimble.
I think the problem is fairly straightforward - can Google seriously find other ways to feed the hungry beast that is AdWords?
I don't actually think so. I think even if they were to give away apps for free or wireless for free I'm pretty sure the AdWords would just enter into a blindspot and would barely pay for the services.
One possibility, of course, are ads next to TV content.
I don't really see this as being entirely probable though.
No, I am inclined to think that growth on Google will be capped sooner rather than later.
I think MSFT didn't buy into AOL simply because they're not that particularly concerned about Google.
You are looking at things as they exist today rather as they will exist 5 or 10 years from now.
Who would have thought 5 years ago that we would be dealing with this huge entity which is Google today.
TV was mentioned. Streaming TV on your computer could be more mainstream 10 years from now. What would be wrong with a running sidebar on your 30" monitor with AdWords based on your Internet search history?
There is stuff brewing behind the doors that we haven't even thought of yet.
My point above was that AdWords were their one trick - not their SERPs.
The question remains - how much can they flog AdWords?
I suppose we can start seeing AdWords on coke machines and at subway stations. Perhaps that's the next evolution. Perhaps that's why the big push into WiFi.
Maybe the company mission statement should be: "AdWords Everywhere"