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so it starts tomorrow eh?

Google IPO

     

Shak

9:42 pm on Aug 12, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member shak is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



[ipo.google.com...]

Please be advised that Google and its underwriters expect to open the auction for the shares of Google's Class A common stock at 9:00 a.m. (Eastern Daylight Time) on Friday, August 13, 2004. You must already have a bidder ID if you intend to submit a bid in the auction for Google's Class A common stock.

Shak

TinkyWinky

10:03 am on Aug 13, 2004 (gmt 0)

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*** YAWN ***

Pretty pointless this one being talked about too much more if you are not US-Based and don't want to lose money...

mackandy

10:34 am on Aug 13, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Remember that Microsoft will be coming up with a search offering, and on the back of that adsense and adwords alternative, that will likely take Marketshare away.

If that starts to happen and if googles earnings don't grow as fast as they predict then 200 P/E ratio is way too high and the stock will trade under 100. Wouldn't you be nervous holding this stock at 200 P/E with Microsofts search offering looming. Remember Netscape.

I suggest, if you want to play this, put in a low bid and see if it gets filled but no more than 120 PE. Yahoo is curently P/E 108.04.

Personally, I may short at opening if the IPO reaches 200 PE. I'm UK based and can't bid in the auction even if I wished but glad I'm not tempted. However, I can short the stock with my trading account at opening.

Lord Majestic

10:47 am on Aug 13, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



Remember Netscape.

Exacto mundo! Google of 2004 is Netscape of 1997ish.

EquityMind

2:17 pm on Aug 13, 2004 (gmt 0)



So bidding begins today? Does anyone have any word yet?

[cbs.marketwatch.com...]

skibum

3:16 pm on Aug 13, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Administrator skibum is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



Anybody bidding?

IITian

4:13 pm on Aug 13, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



>Exacto mundo! Google of 2004 is Netscape of 1997ish.

Not exactly. Google is a profitable, revenue generating powerhouse which Netscape was not.

Probably MS will end up with decent market share but Google is not going to go away so easily. Bill Gates has found his match in "Do No Evil" mantra-chanting, granola-eating, bike-riding billionaires and he is scratching his head in frustration. Google's PR has been superb, and it should be a required case study in all business school marketing courses, contrasted against Microsoft's PR which is a nightmare.

Shak

4:28 pm on Aug 13, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member shak is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



bidding has started from what I hear, all going ahead as planned [news.bbc.co.uk...]

Shak

skibum

4:31 pm on Aug 13, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Administrator skibum is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



Yep, will be interesting to see what the final price is, they didn't even ask for the bidder ID in order to bid.

Lord Majestic

4:36 pm on Aug 13, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



he is scratching his head in frustration

Bill Gates does not make money from search engines - he could have just run one free for all without any ads whatsoever: this would undercut Google's revenues as much as Netscape was undercut when IE became free.

In either case fundamentally Google is not a short or even long term threat to Microsoft - there is no real need to crush 'em apart from making sure workforce is focused on fighting with new competitor (old ones are long gone).

Add to this the fact that now Google caved into one of those ridiculous patents and now derives most of its revenue from something they had to (presumably) license from their main competitor.

Just wait until the end of first year of Google as PLC - founder may have kept control with their undemocratic 2-tier holding system, however they can't control others selling ordinary shares en masse.

kellyandsummer

5:19 pm on Aug 13, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Google and its insiders hope to sell stock at a price ranging from $108 to $135 per share. - AP 8/13

No thanks!

skibum

5:33 pm on Aug 13, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Administrator skibum is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



It's kinda like AdWords, a share only costs as much as you are willing to pay for it. If they will actually sell that low. :)

IITian

5:43 pm on Aug 13, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



> If they will actually sell that low. :)

Doesn't that some medical term go for $30-40 dollars - I saw it mentioned somewhere on this site. Middle of next year?

herb

7:38 pm on Aug 13, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



About four hours into the bid process.

Just spoke with a broker, he advised that he has received no real request to place any bids. He has spoken to several other brokers outside of his origination and all seem to be shying away from suggesting a buy for now.

Asked him if he would take a $40.00 bid. He said “sure, but be careful you could end-up with the stock”. He went on to say that there are just too many red-flags on this issue. Until they get sorted out he is only going to take bids at a client’s insistence.

Chris_R

8:33 pm on Aug 13, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



Wall Street doesn't like Google right now, cause they aren't getting their normal bonuses.

The auction market will price the stock fairly. It doesn't matter what you bid. Bid what you think it is worth (or less than that). You won't pay more than that and may pay less than that.

Of course fairly means fairly to google. Auctions almost always mean the winner overpaid (as everyone else didn't think it was worth that much).

I really have no idea what will happen - and I don't think anyone else can either. This is the first big auction IPO and wall street knows that specialists aren't the only thing that are going out of style.

Anyway. Someone is going to own google shares. There is no minimum bid.

etrade didn't ask for my bidder ID either, but they might know it, because of your SSN. They asked that when you (if you) registered for a bidder ID.

Keep in mind if anyone placed a bid to check their email. Chances are they will try and confirm these...

herb

9:36 pm on Aug 13, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Some of the first stock auctions [stocks-investing.com] were held around 1792.

Completing with the NYSE was a group of securities dealers who conducted their business outside, rain or shine. They were known as the Curbstone Brokers. They would gather in the evenings where they would auction as little as a single share at a time.

Is it still true that history often repeats its self;)

[edited by: herb at 9:44 pm (utc) on Aug. 13, 2004]

pele

9:41 pm on Aug 13, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Don't forget to add Mercury Retrograde into the mix.

;)

skibum

9:50 pm on Aug 13, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Administrator skibum is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



If there is really no interest in this offering, its possible it will float out really low and then once people see how cheap it is, it may start to head up fast as there is much less confusion when you can just buy a stock the normal way.

Shak

10:00 pm on Aug 13, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member shak is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



call it what you like boys n girls, this baby is gonna be a success (imo) what ever happens ...

Shak

StupidScript

10:22 pm on Aug 13, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



"Google of 2004 is Netscape of 1997ish."

I know Netscape of 1997ish. I lost $800 bucks on Netscape 1997ish. Google, sir, is no Netscape 1997ish.

Netscape came out at triple its projected price and shot around like a superball in the space shuttle for about a week before settling down.

Looks like Google is more of a tortoise than a hare. But it's tough to tell what will happen before they finish this opening round and finally settle on what they'll sell shares at.

IITian

10:28 pm on Aug 13, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



One good thing about this IPO is that once it is over, GG will start visiting this site again to guide us in placing our sites higher. Unless he buys and retires on an island.

BayAreaGuy

12:44 am on Aug 14, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



when does the trading on GOOG starts? I thought it is today .. but apparently I did not see any trading of GOOG.

skibum

1:09 am on Aug 14, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Administrator skibum is a WebmasterWorld Top Contributor of All Time 10+ Year Member



I think they have to collect all the bids, see who gets how many share and then dole them out, so it's not actually trading yet.

EquityMind

1:44 am on Aug 14, 2004 (gmt 0)



The article's that I've read said that pricing would be issued the week of the 16th but have not indicated a particular day. Kind of takes the excitement out of it doesn't it?

EquityMind

Chndru

3:55 am on Aug 14, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



I think, Shak nailed it ;) Well-said..

the only reason for so -ve press is, middle men (read wall st) controls them. And G takes 'em on their horns

Chris_R

3:35 pm on Aug 14, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



Yes - there is no word yet on when the auction will end. It seems a little unfair to me - as people don't know how late they can bid. However, this is the first time anyone has done it on this scale, so I really can't blame them.

Here is one thing from the Google IPO FAQ on etrade:

When will my account be updated to reflect the stock purchase?
Public Offering shares are usually allocated on the night before the issue begins to trade publicly. When this is the case you will receive an email message reporting your allocation, and your Portfolio Summary and Transactions will reflect the allotment.

As Google has said the auction is expected to price "during the week of August 16, 2004." Most people are expecting to see trading of it begin next week.

The OFFICIAL IPO will be the night before trading begins. Then you will be able to buy shares from anyone that has access to NASDAQ stocks.

BayAreaGuy

5:20 pm on Aug 14, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



Great .. So, their Friday 13th auction open is really not that dreaded IPO date that I feared;). It is good to know that the actual IPO date is sometime next week.

IITian

6:31 pm on Aug 14, 2004 (gmt 0)

10+ Year Member



I have a feeling that the founders, other employees and the venture capitalists selling the stock will make announcements soon that all the proceeding from their stock sales will go to worthy charitable causes. Bill Gates is giving away 95% of his wealth; I won't expect less than 100% from the company that does no evil.

Way to go, Google.

Chris_R

6:45 pm on Aug 14, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



Well they still need money to live on - bill gates does have a 65 million dollar mansion - and Google is only selling a small part of their stock.

They do have the Google Foundation:

And now, we are in the process of establishing the Google Foundation. We intend to contribute significant resources to the foundation, including employee time and approximately 1% of Google’s equity and profits in some form. We hope someday this institution may eclipse Google itself in terms of overall world impact by ambitiously applying innovation and significant resources to the largest of the world’s problems.

It certainly seems like they aren't interested in money - so we will see.

blaze

12:48 pm on Aug 15, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



A lot of people think the "Do No Evil" is dumb management. Unfortunately, investors should be cheering that all the way to the bank.

Google realises their biggest weapon against MSFT will be that everyone likes the underdog and thinks MSFT is 'evil'. As long as they can show themselves as being (or at least looking like) someone who stands against what MSFT stands for, then everyone is going to happily let them have a benevolent monopoly.

Lord Majestic

1:04 pm on Aug 15, 2004 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



A lot of people think the "Do No Evil" is dumb management.

Serious investors are more concerned about company Directors giving interviews during quiet period that happen to be published almost on the day of auction.

They will also be very concerned (just give time) about people working 4 days a week, thus (technically speaking) costing 25% more than necessary (5 guys doing 4 days is the in days terms as 4 guys doing 5 days). Just wait for first drop in revenues and costs will be questioned instantly with responses from the company reflected in stock price.

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