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Alexa data shows search 'reach' plateau / decline in 2006

Interested in hypotheses why...

         

poster_boy

6:55 pm on May 8, 2006 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



Pulled Alexa traffic data for a variety of Google domains and all show a pretty consistent decline in "daily reach" since late-January / early-February 2006 to present.

Approximations:

Google.com - down 10%
Google.co.uk - down 40%
Google.fr - down 33%
Google.de - down 25%
Google.co.jp - down 35%

Addressing whether this decline is seasonal, 2-year charts appear to show that this is mostly an unprecedented decline for Google. Their growth has been explosive in every market until recently and, in the US and UK, Google failed to experience really any seasonal dips in all of 2005. In the US, it's the first dip since pre-Holidays 2004 and in the UK, it's the first real dip in over 2 years. (other 2-yr charts aren't available)

On the flip-side, Yahoo.com (although, not a great comparison as it's much more diversified traffic - more content, less concentrated on search) appears to be flat across most of the last 2 years, but trending slightly down since the end of 2005, as well.

As I understand it - 'reach' is related to the number of page views and users for Google's domains... and is not tied to syndication partner traffic, traffic from Google to other destinations, and is not impacted by many of the issues discussed in the forum (i.e. Google pricing changes, relevancy, etc.)...

That said, are there any hypotheses as to why a peak occurred in late January/early February, or why a consistent decline has occurred since?

shorebreak

7:52 pm on May 8, 2006 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



I have no clue, but certainly hope others chime in who do.

-Shorebreak

LifeinAsia

8:24 pm on May 8, 2006 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Administrator 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



More Google users using the Google toolbar instead of Alexa toolbar? Fewer Google users using the Alexa toolbar would obviously show a "decline" in traffic to Google.

poster_boy

8:28 pm on May 8, 2006 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



Fewer Google users using the Alexa toolbar would obviously show a "decline" in traffic to Google.

Interesting idea. Was there a significant release in late January that would've spiked useage?

LifeinAsia

8:33 pm on May 8, 2006 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Administrator 10+ Year Member Top Contributors Of The Month



Not sure- anyone know when Google really started pushing their toolbar? I think it was around late Dec. or early Jan. when I finally donwloaded & installed it.

shorebreak

6:49 am on May 9, 2006 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



The more I think about it, the more I think that the Alexa data is horribly, horribly wrong, and Google having reported very strong Q1 revenues is probably the best proof of that.

-Shorebreak

poster_boy

9:11 pm on May 9, 2006 (gmt 0)

WebmasterWorld Senior Member 10+ Year Member



Across some markets, I'm seeing charts that resemble Alexa's in terms of traffic from same/higher average positions. I'm not sure it can be dismissed that easily.

...Google having reported very strong Q1 revenues...

This doesn't necessarily have to do with more traffic... Google has been masterful in extracting revenue efficiently from existing traffic. i.e. better relevancy, higher minimum CPCs, smarter testing to increase CTRs, etc.