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What I am doing is bidding both for a broad match and exact match keyword:
I have a ton of negative keywords. What I have noticed is the broad red widgets is getting all the searches and traffic, while red widgets, the exact, does not even show up anymore. It used to be the exact match would get a bump in when typed in; no longer.
I know that it used to be CTR X Max Bid = Position
Now it's QS x Max Bid = Position
The QS is made up of at least CTR, your landing page, your ad title and text. Any other variables that I am missing - I know we don't know the weight of the above.