AdWords recommendations really off-base

Showing in 14th spot, not 3rd

[pleeker]

We've setup AdWords accounts for less than a handful of clients. It's not really a service we advertise, but when they ask we're able to help get them going.

In EVERY previous setup, when the AdWords system suggests what we can expect re: daily costs, number of clicks, and average position, those suggestions prove to be pretty darn accurate.

We just setup a new client. The system suggested the ad would appear in the 3rd position on average. Now that the ad is running, I've seen it appear no higher than 14th (on page 2 of the SERPS).

I've never seen such a discrepancy between what the backend suggested would happen and what is actually happening. Is there an explanation for this?

[anallawalla]

It sounds as though the new account is in a niche where you haven't tried to advertise before. Anyway, it is best to actually test each keyword to see how high it ranks rather than accept the Google estimate. In my experience the estimate is always pessimistic - best for Google and the advertiser.

[hobbnet]

Yep, sounds like the CTR is probably lower than what Google had estimated it would be. If your ad copy isn't enticing to the user your ad's CTR will be low. Thus, your placement will go down.

[jim_w]

The cost can also be higher. I have a very completive market where we are the cheapest in the world. The competitors ran the bids up to the point where I couldn’t compete w/o raising the price of the product. The estimate may have been accurate when I saw it, but as soon as the competitors saw my ads, they raised the bidding as near as I can tell.

[pleeker]

Thanks for the replies on this. Much appreciated.

The ad continued to show way down on page 2/3 overnight and into this morning. I kept playing around with the estimator and it eventually said we'd have to increase the max CPC by 133% to get to that 2nd/3rd spot, which is where our client will be happy being.

So we've done that. And now the ad is showing down in the 7th/8th spot. So the estimator is still inaccurate on this keyword. It is, admittedly, a more competitive keyword than any of our previous clients have bid on. There are ads showing on the first three pages of SERPS, about 20-22 ads in all.

So I guess I'll ask one more time: :) Is this normal? Is it because the keyword is so competitive?

[eWhisper]

It's not unusual for the estimator to be wrong for competitive keywords.

A slight change to CTR, price, or broad match can throw things in many different directions.

Usually the estimator is more accurate for exact matches than for broad matches.

[pleeker]

Usually the estimator is more accurate for exact matches than for broad matches.

I trust and believe you on that, and that's what's so frustrating. We are doing exact match and nothing else.

[stevenmusumeche]

AWA has posted several messages about why the estimator doesn't work well. To sum them all up - don't use the estimator. Just experiment until you get to the placement that you want.

[pleeker]

Yes, thanks for the nudge on looking more deeply for old posts. Found this not-so-old thread that kinda-sorta answers my question:

http://www.webmasterworld.com/forum81/1877.htm [webmasterworld.com]

Still, that thread is more focused on the problem of estimating click-thrus, which is understandable. You would think G would be a little smarter at estimating position. "Gee, this advertiser is bidding X. X is the 3rd highest bid in the system. This ad should show around the 3rd spot, notwithstanding other ads appearing higher due to better CTR." I'm just surprised how off-base it's been with estimating position for this ad.