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Another solution would be to implement a speed test. Perhaps using AJAX. Record the current system time, then make an AJAX HTTPRequest that retreives some arbitary data (say about 10KB). Then record the time after the data has been retreived and subtract the latter time from the earlier time.
A modem will retreive that data in 2 seconds or longer), a broadband connection will retreive the data in half a second or under.
Of course, the best way would be to ask the user if they want to view the highe bandwidth version or not. You shouldn't assume that just because a user has a high speed connection that they want to use Flash.
I have a 10Mbps connection, but I block all flash and given the choice, I'll always open up the HTML version. Chances are if I'm presented with a flash site and have not been told there's a HTML version, I'll close down the browser window.