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Given the current state of Microsoft, I see Palm as a dead company walking. Microsoft is poised to do for PDAs, what they did for spreadsheets, word processors, browsers, disk compression, gui's, fonts, and are doing for video. Give it 3-5 years and they will crush Palm and all other handheld devices that have "not microsoft" operating systems.
So Brett, how much does Microsoft pay you every time you herald Palm's imminent demise? ;)
Y'know Brett, with as often as you post about the grevious security holes in M$ software, and kvetch about their business practices in general, it never ceases to amaze me how adamant you are about preaching the death of Palm.
Macintosh did not die. *nix did not die. Heck, to some true die-hards, the C64 hasn't even died yet, lol... They may not dominate the market, but back when Windows and Mac were on more head-to-head ground the computing market was a completely different animal.
Palm has a huge lead in market share and software availability. When Microsoft first began gaining operating system prominence, the computer industry was just creeping out of the age when every machine required custom-coded software...
A little standardization was no necessarily a bad thing in the desktop computer market, and once M$ caught on to the conceptual foundation of the Mac GUI, the whole concept of a truly "consumer friendly" computer was just being born. They began to dominate the market out of the gate, simply by licensing their OS to multiple manufacturers rather than keeping all the expenses in-house (like Apple did).
PDAs have already become their own market, and MS was late to the game... Given that the desktop computer (or laptop in some cases) is still the central piece of computing hardware in the average consumer's life, the OS of their PDA is a secondary consideration... as long as Palm maintains compatibility with Windows OSs, Microsoft's leverage for "crushing" them is limited.
One of the reasons Windows desktop computers became so dominant so early was the price difference between what amounted to "store brand" desktop machines running Windows and "top shelf" machines from the do-it-all-ourselves Apple line. Palm OS has the price advantage over WinCE machines, because of the far lower hardware requirements... Palm OS has the software advantage over WinCE, because (I assume) they are less complex to code for...
Much like the webserver market... *nix/Apache won't be crushed any time soon. Lower cost of operation, widely available support, lots of available cheap or free software... Much like PERL won't be wiped off the face of the earth by ASP. Much like Palm and WinCE. Each has their place, and I can't see CE crushing anyone from where I'm standing now.
WinCE may have more "power" than a comparable Palm OS machine, but most people don't need it, and have shown their willingness to forego brute power for a lower price in the handheld market.
According to all the experts there will be 120 Million domain names in 2002. (Source: lots of experts in 1998)
I see these future prodictions and I just laugh.
Well, I have to go. My hover car of 2000 is outside.
<edited for grammer>
(edited by: Lisa at 12:09 am (utc) on Mar. 28, 2002)
Thats a mightly big IF. I don't think MS has a hope of dominating the PDA market. Heres why...
The desktop is out. Mobile is in. There is far bigger potential (read: more money) in the mobile market than there is in the desktop market. Vodafone have bet their future on it.
The mobile market has not been dominated by any one player, far from it. There are some big elephants jostling for position. PDAs will morph naturally into the mobile world before long. It's highly likely Palm will do a deal with a major mobile player.
The PDA software is not economicly important in the same way as it was to the desktop, the software will be free. The cellphone companies will give it away. The key is the means of delivery - the cellular networks. Powerful cell devices do not need to look to a desktop big brother. They can exist independently.
MS are by no means a shoe-in to dominate a new, diversified market chock full of major players.
(edited by: feeder at 11:28 pm (utc) on Mar. 27, 2002)
According to iSuppli, Palm also dominates the market for PDA operating systems with its Palm OS holding 60 percent of the market in 2001. Its closest competitor was Microsoft, which held 30 percent of the market with its Windows CE operating system.
Where I come from, #2 in the market with 30% market share is a pretty good starting point.
PDA Market to Grow to $8.2B by 2006 [e-insite.net]
(credit Geek.com for originally citing this article)
Novel that once dominated Network Operating Systems was too enamoured by SPX/IPX to read the writing on the wall. They stayed with their home grown SPX/IPX while the world moved to the standards based TCP/IP.
Apple did not invent the GUI OS. It was invented at Xerox Parc and they pioneered the GUI concept with the Lisa. Both Apple and Xerox tried to keep their systems closed. A bright college drop-out put together a company based on software for Intel's 8088 chip and open architechture.
If Palm falls by the wayside it will be because they have failed to stay in the mainstream. Palms demise is almost assured if they stay with a closed system.
I think Real's problems will lead to their demise. No one understands their product offering. Everyone understands the free Real viewer, it shows video.
Does anyone know anything about the rest of the product line? Say I hold a sales conference once a year and take videos of the sessions, can anyone explain which of Real's software offerings I need and HOW MUCH it will cost for them to be viewed online a couple of dozen times. An XP pretty much can encode the video and just about any server can deliver it at no additional cost.
Sun should be betting the company on a move to Linux because the days of a bundled OS are just about over.
All opinions expressed are mine and not necessarily 100% correct.
in written testimony, Palm (PALM: news, chart, profile) chief competitive officer Michael Mace said Microsoft has withheld key technical information and has attempted to "severely damage" Palm's ability to compete with Windows.
This thread is already old:
Palm had tried to gain entry to the VISP program for two years and was only now in the final details of a deal.
Palm executive Michael Mace told U.S. District Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly the software giant had refused Palm access to the software development tool called VISP and had set one-sided conditions for allowing Palm handhelds to work with Microsoft's .NET Internet software.
Palm Says Antitrust Case Got Microsoft's Attention [reuters.com].
"in written testimony, Palm (PALM: news, chart, profile) chief competitive officer Michael Mace said Microsoft has withheld key technical information and has attempted to "severely damage" Palm's ability to compete with Windows."
In the interest of fairness I think you need to quote the next paragraph too where Palm's Mace"s written statement says:
"I am not saying that Microsoft has crippled our business today. That obviously has not happened. But the trend is deeply disturbing," he wrote."
Later in the article we also see that William L. Watts (author of the article writes:
"Questioned by Microsoft attorney Bruce Braun, Mace said he could offer no examples of instances where Microsoft had deliberately hindered Palm's interoperability with Windows."
To me, ir reads like it didn't happen and I can't even think where Microsoft tried.
I don't think that is so much an issue, as just their ability to control the market via software and alliances. They have the inside track with Compaq, Intel, and HP that Palm will never have. They have the advanced development lead time for Intel processors that most would envy.