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I'm afraid you are wrong about Overture not counting its partners. When you do a search in MSN, Yahoo, or any other search partner that Overture is working for. You actually are doing two searches, one for that search engine and one for Overture. Thats how Overture knows what “sponsor” websites to list under your search term? Overture keeps track of the number of times each search term was used for the month and then uses that number to show what the previous month count was on that search term.
I had this discussion about 2 months ago in here, and had a hard time convincing several people I was right. All they had to do was to call Overture to confirm what I said. I got it straight from Overture on the phone.
But don't believe me. Just call Overture and ask them yourself. They will tell you that Overture plays at least a part in 80% of all searches. I personally think that number is a little high, but that is the number Overture uses.
Remember, no-matter where you go there you are. :)
Anyone else care to comment? This topic is always one worth responding to in order to build a consensus.
Never put all your eggs in one basket, and you can't go wrong.
There's my two cents worth.
If you want to see it for yourself, use the tool and search on a single-word, generic term like "health", "travel", or "sports", all of which show close to 2 million searches. Overture itself is not used as a search engine to that degree.
It should only ever be used as a guide to past performance.
If you look up Christmas related keywords now and it looks we can all make a mint on those keywords, what d you think?
Maybe they have a dart board and throw darts to arrive at the figures, and to be honest that would probably be a more accurate prediction on what to expect.
if you write lousy copy you could get way less than 45% or way more, it also depends the position you bid to (#4 on MSN now looking good...)