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But I digress...I'm really posting to get a conversation started regarding where everyone (anyone) thinks Google is going in this new "Danceless" age. I've been in this business (as an SEO) since 1997, and I've seen the engines come and go as many have. I'm a bit weary of constantly adjusting to changes, of having to put "most" of my SEO "eggs" in the Google basket, etc. But I'm also still drawn to it in an odd way, just as I was in the "Wild West” days of '97 – ‘99 or so. Now, in the name of diversity, I've been concentrating heavily on Inktomi of late, quietly studying Teoma and FAST, hoping MSN actually puts together a good engine and, yes, even using some LookSmart listings, in addition to a limited foray out of the “organic space” and into the PPC world of Overture et al. All this in the hope of remaining ahead of the game, or at least keeping current with the times.
I've seen complaints and sighs over the “Danceless age”...some worrying that this signifies an end to the "benevolent" Google that so many consider the company to be, and the aforementioned vicious debate about the responsibility that Google may or may not have to the public.
But ultimately, I just wonder...where is Google going now? I've had pages/sites updated in the past 2-3 weeks. I even had one 2 month old site go from 200 visitors per day to 6,000 overnight (all because of Google). So I don't see the "Danceless age" hurting me or anyone else.
But I see spAmazon listings (don't know who said that first, but I like it very much - forgive me for borrowing without giving truly proper credit) and other listings from "shopping" sites that I won't mention. I think this is just a wrinkle and not the beginning of Google's unbia$ed end...the end that could potentially come when its Board of Directors is voted in by the share-holding public rather than its founders.
Monetization is certainly here…Adwords, Adsense, Blogger, etc. But Google is still a good engine *despite* all that. Those who worry that Google is doomed seem (to me at least) to be those recently hurt by Google.
I’ve been crushed by Google before, and raised to the pinnacle of SEO performance….all in the same week in some instances. So I don’t like Google, and I don’t hate Google.
Google just is.
That said, what are the “objective” views of where Google is heading? I’m not even trying to glean any knowledge here (or maybe I am). I just really wonder what everyone thinks. Whatever happens, I’ll still be here. Hell, I’ll be here even if “organic” SEO ceases to exist and everything becomes PPC, pay-to-play or whatever.
And most of you probably will be too.
But where will Google go before that?
IPO? Erosion of search results? Better search results? Complete Monetization? Pay-for-inclusion? Bought by Microsoft? Destroyed by a huge California earthquake?
I don’t know. What do y’all say?
~Canton
P.S. - sorry so long-winded...just felt like writing a bit.
from:- [siliconvalley.internet.com...]
There are completely new ranking technologies that we are working on," he said. "We try about a half-dozen a month and launch on a limited test basis.
[edited by: Chndru at 5:08 am (utc) on Aug. 21, 2003]
>Complete Monetization?
More, but not wild
>Pay-for-inclusion
Not that you'll see in a formal PFI program, but major advertisers.... ...well, you know.
>Bought by Microsoft
My gut says yes, but I have a lot of trouble working out the culture-shock issues.
I have a feeling the spamazon type listings may be a result of teething problems of inlcusion of more dynamic URLs. Its a temporary problem.
Inclusion and placement in the "free" database will continue to be less "reliable", continuing the trend established a fair while back. JohnQ as Rc puts it, will not notice this, but will notice if the top sites in a SERP are all commercial or "100% sells" with no objective info that answers their queries. They dont care which commercial listings are in the SERPS, as long as there are some authoritative objective infomation resources there, and there is a minimum of obvious spam - at least less than google's competitors.
Google will continue to segment their "free index" listings and their commercial listings (at present just Adwords) - with a view that for commercial sites wanting reliable exposure and for qualified shoppers who actually want to shop, will use the Adwords section.
Google's main USP is their "free index" (the only other significant one being quick loading and simplicity). It will always "lose" money but is the feature which brings people to google and makes them notice the comemrcial listings on the right. It is their loss leader which if it was a business in itself would not make any sense at all, but taken as a whole its an integral part. They cant reduce the value of their USP.
Various other interesting things going on re google blogs, froogle, answers, adsense, and many others which can broaden google's brand and revenue streams without compromising their main USP of the main "free" index.
I've seen complaints and sighs over the “Danceless age”...
Danceless? It's a continous dance IMHO.
So I don't see the "Danceless age" hurting me or anyone else.
There are some very good positives definitely. I don't have to wait 30 to 60 days to see the results. I can see visible results for PR 0 sites also within 30 days if my link campaign is done properly. It's a definite plus for me.
But I see spAmazon listings..
Yes. I agree completely. :)
Hell, I’ll be here even if “organic” SEO ceases to exist and everything becomes PPC, pay-to-play or whatever.
My view is that google will Never ever stop Free indexing of the sites.
Google's main USP is their "free index" (the only other significant one being quick loading and simplicity). It will always "lose" money but is the feature which brings people to google and makes them notice the comemrcial listings on the right.
I couldn't agree more.
Not technology. People. Hiring quality people, training quality people, keeping quality people, and PAYING these employees!
Customer service, then, indirectly results in huge costs. So I'm guessing that Google is going to begin offering tiered service plans for Webmasters... phone support for $1.99 a minute ($20 minimum) or priority (for fee) e-mail support to get information ("Was my site banned? Why?" etc.). Same sort of fees and options for AdWords customers who spend below a certain threshold.
I don't see customer service as being remotely a profit center, but I think with increased fees for phone/priority support, Google will at least be able to avoid having customer service expenses eat a larger part of their budget... and thus be able to devote a larger piece to R&D.
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Also, I'm guessing that Google is going to monetize its huge database in the form of offering detailed stats reporting (an expansion of bStats with Blogger) ala Alexa stats... both for individual clients ("How are my page hits from Google changing over time? Compared to my competitors?...") and for academics and business intelligence folks (much more in-depth and customized Zeitgeist by industry).
Lastly, I see Google forging some very lucrative arrangements with both wireless telecom companies (T-Mobile, Verizon, Orange, etc.) and phone manufacturers (Nokia, Siemens, etc.), putting Google "on the desktop" so to speak... front page of phone menus (complete with AdWords ads in the results ;-)
I do see that the "free database" will over time become far less important to commercial webmasters, as qualified and motivated buyers learn to click more on Adwords and trust them more, and as the "hidden costs" (eg. SEO costs, compromises between site "look" and SEO) to Webmasters of reliable "free" listings becomes higher and higher. I really dont think in coming years obtaining free listings will be nearly as important part of web advertising strategy as it is now - to the extent is becomes a very small part. For Google to offer paid support to help webmasters optimize or "correct" their free listings just forestalls the inevitable.
I see room for paid advanced google search via subscription, in one form or the other, for users, offering useful benefits such as saved searches, extra filter options, and lots of things i havent thought of yet! And yes a desktop app, and corporate solutions as revenue streams too.
With Google being so big, popular and free, we have to spend BIG $$$ to diversify, $$$ that many do not have and/or cannot afford.
Like it or not, Google has us all Googled!
Dave
"So I'm guessing that Google is going to begin offering tiered service plans for Webmasters... phone support for $1.99 a minute ($20 minimum) or priority (for fee) e-mail support to get information."
I can't see that occurring either, but one never knows. I understand the logic behind it, but it seems very "un-Google." I'm curious as to how the company will operate if/when they go public. Whole new set of folks to answer to. Folks who don't give a damn about anything but profit and may like charging for phone time or any other number of revenue-generating "services."
Don't get me wrong - I'm a capitalist, love the stock market, don't blame shareholders for only caring about the bottom line, and don't hold Google in as much regard as certain others in the forums who defend Google like they already own the stock or helped to found the company. I just think that a post-IPO Google could get a serious shakeup.
Chiyo:
'I do see that the "free database" will over time become far less important to commercial webmasters, as qualified and motivated buyers learn to click more on Adwords and trust them more.'
hmmm....since Google is the only "organic" game in town, the notion you put forth spells 1) the coming of the end of the "organic" space or 2) the rise of another "basket" in which SEOs can place their eggs.
Yikes - of course I'm aware of the possibility of the death of real SEO - I first discussed it several years ago in earnest and have even adjusted our business plan to accommodate that eventuality, should it arise. Still, I don't want to live in that world. I don't mind change, I just don't want to see that.
Finally, regarding "learn to click more on Adwords" - This may overestimate the net-savvy of current and future users...I think there may be enough AOLers out there to keep feeding e-Commerce without the paid ads indefinitely, and enough non-AOLers who won't catch on to that. This may be wishful thinking though...
You know what I mean - the ones who don't really know what a browser is, couldn't even perform a search outside the realm of their watered-down connection to the Internet, etc. Or the folks who use MSN by default...Man, if MSN plays their cards right, they could end up in court again for dominating the search world.
Dave_Hawley:
"Like it or not, Google has us all Googled!"
It would appear so. That said, and related to the potential webmaster scorn that could possibly result from that situation, I wonder when the first really solid lawsuit will be brought against them for copyright infringement for caching pages without consent.
Yes...I've seen the "the <noarchive> tag IS your opt-out" argument. Not buying. Because one never "opts-in" in the first place.
Sorry a bit off-topic there - it just surprises me that we're not reading about this in the news now. Especially with the Times and other subscription services having their content given away for free.
Perhaps no one wants to really offer a lawsuit with teeth because they want the free Google traffic and worry that the counter-action by Google (among other things) would be removal from the database...that's an interesting concept.
~Canton
