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Why am I talking about this? Well, Kalman filters have a knob that blends between how much you believe your model vs. how much you believe each new data point. If you tweak the knob all the way in one direction, you always trust the model and any new input just gets ignored. On the other extreme, you can ignore your current estimates about the state of the world, and only trust each new data point as it comes in. If you set the knob too far in that direction, the object you're trying to model jumps all over the place each time you see even a hint of new info.
Lots of people here are getting more stressed than they need to be--their knobs are turned a little too far toward worrying about the very last thing that happened: "Now my subpage is coming up higher than it should! Okay, now my index page is back and the SERPs look good. Gaaack! Now I'm showing well at DC but the subpage still shows up higher at FI! Too much pressure--I'm going to drink now, and start spamming every FFA I see tomorrow!" :)
If you look around, you'll notice not too many senior members posting here. They chime in every so often, but their knobs are twisted further in the other direction. They know that the index switchover takes a little time to settle, and they have the perspective not to get too worried about things right now, and in general.
I haven't posted much of my take lately, but if I could give advice, it would probably be: don't panic. Here's what I would expect. Probably about one data center per day will get switched to the Esmeralda index. You may see some improvements during the course of the switchover as ingredients get blended in as they're ready. I would expect another round of ingredient-adding after the index is switched over.
So: if you're really into Google-watching as a sport, I would check in once a day to see what data centers have been switched, and maybe to run 2-3 searches. Browse a little while, and then come back the next day. Find something fun to do at night besides poring over every last thing that GoogleGuy (or whoever) posts on WebmasterWorld. You'll feel better, I promise.
This is just my take. You're welcome to ignore it. But I mention it because during this index, I heard about a lot of good and bad searches from webmasters, and the more I dig, the more confident I am that things will turn out well.
I totally accept your theory about the index having Feb data, as it certainly explains exactly what I am seeing with my site in a way. I have also been watching another site that got indexed in Feb, when I did, and we have different problems, but buried in SERP's where we used to rank on page one. -fi brought us back to page one. -cw and -ex knocked us back down (way down for www.mydomain.com). Also, for www.mydomain.com, when I can find it, displays my new title. While mydomain.com ranks higher in -cw and -ex, it uses an old title. It looks like it has Feb index with new data mixed in, and perhaps this is creating the duplicate content causing such a problem. We have been seeing this february data issue since the beginning of Dominic, and I think it has yet to be resolved in most datacenters.
I'm gonna try to spend the weekend playing instead of on the computer (for once). See you in a couple days!
Have fun GG. I think that somehow, someway we'll survive here without you for a few days. ;) Looks to me like things are evolving as I might suspect. Although, now that you won't be posting for a couple days in 10 minutes one of the datacenters will probably start giving bizarre results like microsoft.com being #1 for "chocolate pudding." ;)