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We are looking at two, two word domain names offered in the low XXX,XXX range and I am trying to evaluate the amount of type in traffic they would receive without explicitly asking for log files.
Is there any correlation between type in traffic and google addwords exact match data or wordfinder?
Not always. I have my own methods to provide me with an estimate of what type in traffic a domain *should* return. The services you mention are only a small part of my process. Others people have their own methods - some certainly better. You need to be aware of the fact that some domains, even though they are evaluated to the Nth degree - will not perform like you expect. Some will have more traffic and some less (often much less).
If it is a traffic name, did they have it parked somewhere? Most parking services will provide accurate traffic patterns.
If your looking for a simple benchmark that should be more accurate than what you mentioned try looking at Overtures results. On their traffic tool, type in your domain with the extension included. If there is traffic returned you should expect at least minimal traffic levels. If there is no traffic, you really need to look long and hard at that name. This tool is FAR from 100%, but it is better than what your using.
You may want to go to forums where you can openly discuss the domain and it's worth and find an industry leader to help you evaluate the domain - especially at the prices your talking about.
openly discuss the domain and it's worth and find an industry leader to help you evaluate the domain
We are the industry leader so far as internet presence and sales are concerned (though its a small industry so that statement is made rather humbly). We have more accurate statistics on search engine and adwords traffic then competitors, specifically because with the latter we can afford not to throttle our account and with the former we are positioned such that we get more of it (broader set of terms and some of the best terms in the industry).
The domains right now are (a single page) used for adsense clicks and as part of an affilite program, they are parked in the sense that they have little content but they are not parked with a formal service. I would have no problem asking for the logfiles but think it best to maintain an air of general disinterest, remain as anonymous as possible, and in general not act in a manner that would make the domains appear more valuable.