Should I offer to buy or wait for it to expire

domain name I am interested in

[wiskur]

There is a domain name that I am very interested in (.com). Another individual currently has it and it is due to expire Dec 31st. I've read that it takes sometimes over a year after it expires to go back on the market.
He does have a site running from it, but doesn't appear to be much and Alexa doesn't even have it ranked.
Should I approach the individual about purchasing it before it expires or should I just wait for it to expire?
I already have the .net of the word that I am planning on using, but would like the .com.
I do not feel that anyone else would be interested in this site. (But I could be wrong.)
If I do approach the individual, what would be the best way to handle the inquiry?

Thanks!

[pleeker]

From what I understand, there are companies/individuals that run systems which automatically re-register any expired domain that was active and in use before expiration. You may have no chance to get this domain if you wait.

(Can someone more knowledgeable talk about that?)

At least if you contact the current owner, you may have a chance. He might hold you hostage since he knows he's got what you want, but at least you're giving yourself a chance.

[Webwork]

Snapnames.com, Pool.com, NameWinner.com are a few.

Can't assume name owner will allow it to drop or that you are the only interested party.

A phone call may sometimes work. Frankly, the only strategy that works is one where you don't care if you get it. Don't ask me to explain. It's just true. Make the call. Explain your situation. Be polite. Since you don't care if you get it (you don't have to say that) you won't sound desparate and give cause to jacking up the price.

How will you value it? (I won't return here to tell you how but I'd suggest you scan prices at BuyDomains.com. They're pretty good a pegging value.)

[Hunter]

webwork, great comments but I must disagree with the buydomains part. They are overpriced/retail priced and you should aim much lower if you are going to try to grab it before it drops.

[cabbie]

I wouldn't assume that just because he is not doing much with it that the owner will it expire.
So if you are serious about it make him an offer or at least see what his intentions are.

[Rancor411]

There are a couple of domains that I have been watching for a couple of years. The owners have never put up a website but still continue to renew them year after year. For as cheap as the renewals have become you definitely can not count on them just letting it expire in December.

If they do let it expire, it will not be released right away for a new owner. It depends on who the registrar is as to how long it will take to release. Network Solutions drags the process out for months!