Domain expired but no status

I'm assuming the drop process will be as follows

[WebWalla]

A domain I'm after has expired and currently shows this ..

Record expires on 14-Oct-2003.
Record created on 15-Oct-1998.
Database last updated on 10-Nov-2003 03:55:58 EST. Domain servers in listed order:
DNS1.REGISTER.COM 216.21.234.71
DNS2.REGISTER.COM 216.21.226.71

I've tried several whois tools, including the one at register.com, but I never see a status.

I'm assuming the following if the owner doesn't renew :
- domain will go to pending delete on 14-Nov
- domain will drop on 20-Nov 2pm EST

Do you agree with my assumptions? Is there any way of confirming that the domain is definitely in the redemption period?

Thanks.

[WebWalla]

I've found out that the status of this domain is set to REGISTRAR-HOLD.

So, I presume it will change to REDEMPTION PERIOD on 14-Nov and then to PENDING DELETE on 14-Dec, to definitely drop 5 days later.

[cabbie]

It can depend on the tld of the domain.

[WebWalla]

Yes, sorry, I didn't specify - it's a .com

[cabbie]

webwalla not neccessarily.There are still things that can happen to delay the name dropping.
What you can be more confident about is that once it goes to pending delete it will drop 5-6 days later.

[WebWalla]

OK, thanks. I appreciate certain things can happen, but I'm fairly confident of getting this domain by using the normal manual channels (i.e. no SnapNames, etc). Archive.org just shows the typical register.com "coming soon" message for past years, so I know it's never actually been used.